Posted on 10/19/2004 6:48:13 PM PDT by gswilder
I predict Bush will win by about 7% nationally. He will get around 320-340 EV's. Here's my case for the Bush win.
Like me... The fact that english isn't phonetic has been a problem since I started studying it when I was 11... I have learned a lot since, but I still think Professor Higgins had a point...
Remember the media was all abuzz about the EXTREME popularity and ENERGY for one Howard Dean? Dean was ahead in Iowa by 20 points or so--also in NH and also in SC. It was all DEAN, DEAN, DEAN. The ENERGY level and interest in this Democrat primary was at unprecedented levels. What happened? Dean was a HUGE flub and NO factor whatsoever with voters. ALL THAT ENERGY was non-existant. It was a media created phenomena because Dean raised a crap load of money from lunatice (Soras) left idiots and yet the actual voters in America didn't give a rats ass for Howard Dean or the Democrat primary. Kerry won by default.
So this energy level didn't show up in Iowa, didn't show up in NH, didn't show up ANYWHERE after that. It didn't show up in the polls after the war criminals convention and it didn't show up after all 3 debates the media said Kerry won by HUGE margins. It's all hype, the media knows it and is realizing it JUST DOESN'T EXIST!
Bush could clearly take 37-40 states. He doesn't have blacks enthused about him...according to Fox News...he splits the women votes 50/50 with Bush and loses the men vote by large margins--THERE ARE NO OTHER VOTERS EXCEPT MEN AND WOMEN!!
So this energy that has never been seen before may not be for Kerry but rather the kind of patriotism and national pride that was demonstrated after 9/11! That pride is with George Bush.
And YES Americans DON'T like the direction the country is heading. We have a war we didn't ask for...it was brought to us. We have courts and liberal mayors trying to legislate laws on their own illegally. We have democrats at every opportunity obstructing the President on Judicial appointments and just his programs in general. YES the country is upset with the way the country is heading...but it may not be for reasons Dan RAther wants you to think.
good post.
do it again!
Are you series?
LOL. I thank he must have misspelled something.
Bush actually may loose NH, from the grip of the Dims.
You might want to check the use of the word loose in your article and replace it with the word lose.
You did it over and over so you might want to check your dictionary.
It even confuses some of who use English as a FIRST language.
John Kerry may have loose stools when he ponders how bad he probably will lose this election.
I think October surprises are inevitable. I just hope that none of them come from the terrorists.
It looks like the one for Kerry will have to do with his discharge from the Navy.
I haven't heard anything about what the Dems might have to use against Bush, but I'm pretty sure they'll make up something if they have to.
To which I say, Loose the Dogs of War on the looser loser louse, er, Kerry!
Q: Is Tereaza loose or tight, and in which sense of the word?
Anyway, all my instincts tell me Bush will win. But they have been wrong before. Hope to see some more state polls later this week. I'd really like a Columbus Dispatch poll for OH. They have been pretty reliable over the years.
Maybe we all worry too much. I do, especially over all the polls. I know the media is biased and all. But I just don't believe all these pollsters are intentionally biasing their polls toward Kerry. They may be bad pollsters, but all biased? Bush seems really confident to me. And I don't think they are just trying to fake Kerry out by going to NJ. Bush kind of wears his heart on his sleeve. I remember election night in 2000. Had friends over watching the returns, hoping to celebrate. After they called FL for Bush, everyone else went home. Then they interviewed Bush on TV. He said, you need to wait, and not call FL so quickly. He said from our information, we feel really confident we are going to win FL. I thought at the time, Bush was just being overly optimistic. I turned off the TV, and just starting browsing the internet. Happened to hit FR, just to see how well everyone was taking the news of a Gore presidency, when I saw a post that said "Networks withdraw FL project for Gore". I went running upstairs to tell my wife. Called my family to see if they were watching. Couldn't believe the networks could be wrong. But they were
Stayed up watching TV until about 2am. Florida was down to about a 10,000 vote margin for Bush with about 94% reporting. I figured it wasn't going to be decided that night, so I went to bed. Got up the next morning, and found out they had called it for Bush, and then retracted it again.
Silly me. I thought they'd do a quick recount, and it would be officially Bush's by Thur or Fri of that week. Boy, was I wrong again. I cannot remember being on such a stressed out roller coaster for so many weeks during that time.
My point in all of this, is you gotta listen to Bush, and watch what he is doing. He looks like he is hitting his stride. Got the right message. The crowds at his events seem so enthusiastic. And you can tell he feeds off of them. Doesn't look like someone who thinks he has any chance of loosing. Hoping and praying it turns out OK, and that 2 weeks from now, we are already celebrating a Bush re-election blow out.
Where will NH go if it gets loose?????
I have an inkling that he already HAS loose stools.
I'd probably go as well, but the local temple here is so left wing, most of the congregants will probably be wearing a cut black button and sitting on hard chairs!
?4U - Lets assume that the RATS do get a few thousand more stolen votes in FL (Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, etc.) Do you think those will be easily offset with the GOP voters in the panhandle that are in a different time-zone? Remember last year the MSM called it early for Gore and the panhandle was still open so the GOP feels that it lost a lot of votes there because it leans hard GOP. Your thought?
Was taught by sarcastic old prep school Latin Masters in the '60's (that I personally know of) and probably for several hundred years before.
In fact, wife and I had our first date at a cold, rainy college football game. She asked to borrow my sweater.
While gallantly handing her the garment I said, "Semper ubi . . ."
Without missing a beat she replied, "Sub ubi!!!"
It was love at first cite.
"I'm fearfully staying with my prediction of 340, from late spring."
I would be more confident of this now than I was last Spring. Barring major uncorrected electoral fraud, of course. GW is stronger than ever--peaking at just the right time.
My case can be summed up in fewer words:
Kerry is an idiotic buffoon that flips back and forth on every issue, documented to have engaged in anti-American activities, with a complete non-record as a Senator.
As stupid as the American public has proven itself to be in the past (voting in Clinton twice???) Kerry is so blatantaly incompetent that he has zero chance.
A great thing for Bush, because a more sleazy politician with an iota of charisma might have had a chance, between the economy and Iraq. It seems the Dims decided to throw this one away, as they know better than to trust one of their own to fight terror. No doubt they'll take 2008 seriously, after letting Bush do the hard work; Hitlery is drooling for a chance to let things slide again as things slid under her "husband."
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.