Posted on 10/19/2004 6:48:13 PM PDT by gswilder
I predict Bush will win by about 7% nationally. He will get around 320-340 EV's. Here's my case for the Bush win.
Bush's support is much stronger than Kerry. (about +10%, and Kerry's is getting softer with each new poll) This is a major indicator of turnout. I do believe the the republican GOTV efforts will be amazing this year. And it will be needed to offset what looks like some democratic shenanigans at the polls. Most polls are at about 65% that people think Bush will win regardless of who THEY are voting for. (About in line with Tradesports and IEM.)
Look at the underlying poll numbers. Bush is doing better with almost every group compared to 2000. There was a poll out today by a group that nailed the minority numbers in 2000. They are showing Bush getting double (18%) what he got in 2000. This is in line with several other polls that show Bush getting 15-25% of the African American vote.
Look at where Bush and Kerry are campaigning 2 weeks out. Bush is in NJ on Monday. Kerry is in PA today. Most of the rest of the week, Kerry is in states Gore won in 2000. So why are they doing this? To believe Kerry is winning, you have to believe this. #1 that Bush is loosing and Bush's internal polls are wrong. You also have to believe that Kerry is winning, but he doesn't know it. Sound reasonable to you?
Look at the campaign topics. Bush has pretty much stayed on message the entire campaign. He has been consistent in his proposals and his views. What was Kerry going to focus on until Nov 2nd? Iraq is what we heard 2 weeks ago. But wait, what is he focusing on this week? Scaring seniors on Social Security and young folks with the draft. Looks like Kerry is throwing everything out there, hoping some issue will resonante at the last moment.
Now for the states. OH seems to be the most worrysome right now, and possibly NH. Polls in OH seem to be all over. Brit on Fox tonight said their 5 point OH lead for Bush is in line with several "private" polls. I suspect he meant the campaigns. I think Bush will do better than most of the current polls in OH are showing. One main reason will be the marriage amendment. Most polls (ABC excluded) show it winning with around 60-70%. I think it will win by even more considering what we have seen in other states this year. If 70% of the voters vote for the marriage amendment, what % of that group do you think Bush will get? I'd say 80% at least.
I personally think FL is basically locked up for Bush. Most reputable polls have show a consistent 3-5 point lead there for Bush. Bush will do better in 2004 than he did in 2000. Lieberman is not on the ticket, and the networks won't call it early this year. Jeb didn't far better in the election in 2002 than the polls showed. He is better liked. And Bush got a lot of positives from his efforts during the hurricanes. My guess is Bush wins FL by 6%, although the networks won't call FL until very late.
Bush may loose NH. However, he has a very good chance of picking up IA, WI, NM, and maybe even PA. Bush may loose, but he has a lot more room for error than Kerry does.
I still think there is a potential October surprise for Kerry. However, Bush and Rove may not use it unless it really tightens in the next 2 weeks. Bush held off on attacking Kerry as a liberal until the last couple of weeks. I suspect that is a major factor in how Bush is extending his lead over the last 5-7 days. Again, some of the polls aren't what we'd like to see, and only time will tell who is right. But just look at the Bush trend over the last 7 days. Last week before debate #3, he was tied to up 1-2 in most polls. This week, he is back to 5-7 in the nationals. You cannot win nationally by 5-7% and loose the electoral college counts. Newt Gingrich pretty much predicted this last Thursday after the last debate. He said within a week, Bush would be back to his pre-debate lead. (of 5-7%) It would settle there for a few days, and then Bush would widen the lead over the last 5 days. Newt's a republican, but he has been a pretty reliable predictor of races over the years.
So that's my reasoning. Most of it has been posted here in some form or another by myself and others. Some much more eloquently than I. Although I worry, let me ask you all one question........ Who here that is supporting Bush would be willing to "flip" all the poll numbers right now? What do you think Kerry and Bush would say to that question? SO, I think Bush wins relatively easy on Nov 2nd (or 3rd). Thanks for letting me share this vanity. I think it may be my first in the 4+ years of posting on FR.
Since 1460 newbies have posted a vanity on there first day of registration within the last week, you have to wait another 4 yrs. Take one for the team.
there=their.
If you're right, then I'll buy you a margarita here in Dallas at Laura Bush's favorite Tex-Mex restaurant! We can celebrate big time!
I think I like it.
Why doesn't anyone know how to spell this word?
To lose is the verb. Loose means not tight.
But I like your hypothesis.
Everyone deserves a vanity once in a while.
The great unknown is how massive will Democrat corruption be at the polls. 5 or 6 million stolen votes wouldn't surprise me at all. I think it was probably around 3 million last time, and those guys must really be kicking themselves. If they had just stolen a few thousand more votes in Palm Beach they would have won it all. They won't make that mistake again.
I "flip" too. Whenever I start to worry too much, I ask myself, "Would you rather have President Bush's poll numbers, or Kerry's?" and I feel much better!
I'm fearfully staying with my prediction of 340, from late spring.
Yeah, I admit I wouldn't want to flip the numbers. But I still worry about Ohio. I don't see how Bush could possibly win Iowa, Wisconsin, etc. and not win in Ohio.
Also, the voter fraud has me worried.
But I'm LOVIN' the new Fox poll!!
I couldn't have said it better myself gswilder. Great post, do a vanity every week.
Hopefully they will get caught this time.
Even if President Bush were to win 99.99% of the vote, kerry would still drag the election out in the courts. BTW I stopped paying attention to polls when they predicted that Dubya's Dad would win by a landslide.
Are you series?
Well, I have sworn I'll go to services on shabbat following the election if George Bush is elected...
And I don't go to service very often!
Always wear underwear? Is that for Bill Clinton?
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