Posted on 10/03/2004 4:54:24 PM PDT by MarlboroRed
CNN) -- President Bush and his Democratic challenger, Sen. John Kerry, are about even among likely and registered voters in the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, released Sunday.
The poll showed Kerry and Bush tied at 49 percent each among likely voters interviewed. Among registered voters Bush had 49 percent and Kerry 47 percent. Independent candidate Ralph Nader was favored by 1 percent in each group.
The margin of error in each case was plus or minus 4 percentage points.
By contrast, Bush was ahead of Kerry among likely voters 52 percent to 44 percent in the Gallup poll conducted September 24-26. Among registered voters in that poll, the spread was 53 percent for Bush and 42 percent for Kerry. Nader had 3 percent among each group.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
The poll internals look good. W's personal numbers are still pretty strong.
If his performance had been a disaster, his personal ratings would have crumbled. They haven't.
must have internals....
Bush leads Kerry 51 to 44 on "who would do a better job in Iraq" down from 55 to 41.
On who would do a better job against terrorism, Bush 56 to 39, previously 61 Bush to 34.
On the question of who is better at expressing himself, Kerry outpolled Bush 54-41. On who cares more about people, Kerry had 49 to Bush 44. Who is more intelligent: Kerry 48-38.
On who is more honest and trustworthy, however, Bush 46 to 41, and when asked who among the two candidates shares their values, Bush 49 to 45 Kerry.
And when it comes to who they think is the stronger leader, those polled favored Bush by 56 percent to 37 percent for Kerry.
I just read the article, it seems that Bush leads in most categories, as he always has. These polls are driving me nuts. And they are attracting all kinds of trolls as well..
polling saturday and sunday, when the republicans are out with their families (it's football time, boys and girls)???
This sounds like crap....I'd say it's still 3-5 points for bush, possible more. Only a good weekday polling string will tell for sure.
Bush had a lackluster performence in the first debate, and going into the debate on domestic issues, not his strong point, if Bush is not prepared, expect even worse results.
As for Limbaugh, its best to get outside of the talk radio fishbowl.
They saved the best for last. This was at the very end of the article.
78 of those polled are not registered to vote. How can you tell what the internal democrat to republican percents?
Those are some good internals. These are the kind of internals that suggest that while some people may tell a poll taker they will vote for Kerry, and while they may be temporarily smitten with him based on a single debate, it will be hard for them to pull the lever for him once in the ballot box.
They've been doing that all along. They just split it out in the end. But the media will tout the one that they believe best suits their bias.
I find it interesting that in the newsweek poll they had a lot more Replicans vs. Democrats. Now it appears they are polling more democrats. What gives?
All in all, we just need to take the threat seriously and campaign as if we are tied or behind.
Story does not disclose weighting of sample between Republicans and Democrats. The Newsweek poll increased Democrats 6 percentage points, and decreased Republicans 6 percentage points over their previous poll. Strong continuing internals for Bush suggest poll weighting was changed.
Once again, as in Gallup's earlier poll, the odd thing in this poll is that Bush is doing better among registered than likely. Perhaps weekend polling skew. I don't know.
This poll really sucks. Where's the breakdown of rep/dems?
If the President performs the same for the next 2 debates I would worry.
Tonight I'm not worried.
For a week after the first Reagan/Mondale debate the MSM wrote of Ronnie as finished.
Kerry will execute the same playbook for the next debates.
W will not.
What is the Republican-Democrat-Independent breakout?? if it does nto OVERSAMPLE REPUBLICANS by 8% Like the last Gallup poll, but instead Oversamples Demons -- then this is a COOKED POLL created to show a huge shift from Bush to Kerry. I stated as much in the last Gallup poll that the huge Bush lead was Bogus because of the Rep-DEM Breakout of the poll.
I think if both the previous poll and this poll are manipulated to show the same REP-DEM-IND breakout the results of the polls will be the same instead of an 11 point change.
Reality - Bush has a 3-5% lead nationwide, and we need to get to work to get out the vote and ensure that lead.
Ever consider a bit of optimism?
WHY do we even believe these polls? Most of us didn't believe the other ones with Pres. Bush WAY up. All of a sudden they're real?
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