Posted on 10/03/2004 3:07:34 PM PDT by West Coast Conservative
Just announced on CNN.
I have figured wins in Wisconsin, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania, and one of the Maine EVs. That's an additional 37 EVs. That's 315 EVs, right in my projected range. Not out of reach, not hard to visualize.
I think your judgment is impaired and you are a bit emotional about the debate loss. That's ok. But I don't think my EV projection is out of line.
We have work to do, but Dubya didn't lose the election on Thursday night. Get over it, and get to work. Stay positive but realistic.
My judgment is just fine! I would agree Wisconsin and New Mexico are possible but I think PA is VERY iffy.
I hope you are right. I thought that foreign policy was going to be our strongest debate also, so what do I know?
"You know the president saw the notes and he got madder and madder as the debate progressed. I think Kerry had not just notes but copies of the questions."
That would be an even bigger scandal than the Dan Rather affair! But I suspect the media would cover that up too, damn them.
There is no way that all but 1% of the electorate has made up its mind. Puh-lease. And since EVERY poll has Bush's JA rating at 50% or higher, I'll give you three guesses as to where the "undecideds" are being shoved into.
Now, for some realism: OH is pretty much safe. WI is pretty much safe. FL is close, but still in Bush's column. IA is close, but still in Bush's column. Despite one poll, NJ is now in play. PA is very close and slightly in Bush's column. MN, ditto. Only MI, despite a Ras poll showing a tie, is still, IMHO, a 4-5% spread.
YOu are still looking at about 320 Evs. for Bush.
Ya know, this is odd. I was reading a thread about the cheat notes and my reply ends up on the thread about the Gallup Poll. Wha' hoppen? LOL
Thanks, I found it there. It's a pic of Kerry with Viet leaders and it's in the American Protestors section of the War Remnants Museum in Saigon. They weren't shaking hands...LOL, so much for my memory!
IMO, President Bush is up 3 to 5 points right now. I'm stil thinking he'll win by 30 to 50 EVs.
Now for reality: Bush has, right now, about 320 EVs. This is the best it gets for Kerry.
There is an infestation of trouble makers. The correct response to each is :
1) Call the campaign and volunteer a few hours
2) Provide the disruptor with the phone number of the campaign in their state.
not in a 50-50 race youre not looking at 320 EVs.
BTW did anyone notice tha tit was 49-49 in LV but RV it was Bush up by like 2 or so?
I agree. Gallup is usually pretty sound. Now, do YOU really think that only 1% of the electorate is undecided, given that many polls had it as much as 12% just a week ago? Do you REALLY think that Kerry turned the election around? I don't. So we are left with the conclusion that a) this poll is at the low end (for Bush) of the MOW; that b) it was conducted over a weekend, and c) that it possibly slightly oversampled some Dems. These are all legit mistakes, but ones that would give you a 4-5% swing.
A few hours? You disruptor!
Yeah, I noticed.
I also noticed on a weekend Kerry has only managed a tie at best in LV with only 1% undecideds left. Something isn't right here.
I have been thinking about it, and with out seeing the internals this means Bush slipped about 4 points and Kerry Gained 5 points or something to this affect. Meaning that I am almost willing to bet my farm that the sample was or has been distorted by a oversampling of democrats combined with a push question of based on the debate are your more willing to vote for bush or kerry.
Not to dismiss it entirely but I think its mathematically and statistically unlikely, maybe not totally unlikely anything is possible, for a large group of people to unanimously switch to one side like the undecideds seemingly have done in this poll. I would have thought the undecideds would break along the post debate snapshot polls 53% to 37%, still giving Bush a lead, not necessarily a comfortable one but one none the less..
hahaaaa!
People have been criticizing me since Thursday for saying this.
I knew it the night of the debate.
Yet WH Comm Director Bartlett is still on TV denying there was anything wrong with Bush's performance in the debate. Incredible.
People need to face reality.
And the debate on Iraq was supposed to Bush's STRONG issue.
I hope and pray to God that this thing turns around and Bush still wins on Nov 2.
But if not, historians will point to Bush's poor performance in that debate as the turning point.
Forget percentages: if ALL the CA and NY voters, say, go for Kerry and Bush squeaks out a 1% win in WI, IA, NM, MN, OR, and, say, PA (he lost all six of these in 2000, BTW and lost four by a mere 30,000 votes TOTAL), then, yes, my friend, you ARE looking at 320 EVs. Do the math.
I did not notice anything. I can not find this poll anywhere. Shouldn't CNN repeat it at some time?
Somebody.. watch CNN and see if they mention it again. I can not stomach watching any longer.
Your point is proved by numerous polls and internals, yet most here don't believe it; one poll showing Bush in a tie, though, and they fall for THAT hook line and sinker.
People here need to look at reality and not be jerked around by individual polls. And no, Newsweek doesn't count, it's been thoroughly discredited.
Does anyone at all have confirmation yet?
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