Posted on 10/02/2004 1:45:56 PM PDT by tsmith130
Edited on 10/02/2004 2:53:28 PM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
NEWSWEEK POLL: BUSH LEAD GONE
Sat Oct 02 2004 16:42:32 ET
New York-Sixty-one percent of Americans who watched the first presidential debate on September 30 say Sen. John Kerry won; 19 percent say President George W. Bush won and 16 percent say they tied, according to the latest Newsweek Poll which was conducted after the debate ended. Fifty-six percent say Kerry did better than they expected; 11 percent say so for Bush. Thirty-eight percent say Bush did worse than expected; 3 percent say so for Kerry, the poll shows.
The debate erased the lead the Bush/Cheney ticket has held over Kerry/Edwards in the Newsweek Poll since the Republican convention. In a three-way trial heat including Ralph Nader/Peter Camejo, among registered voters Kerry/Edwards leads Bush/Cheney 47 percent v. 45 percent with 2 percent for Nader/Camejo. In a two-way heat, Kerry/Edwards leads 49 percent v. 46 percent for Bush/Cheney, the poll shows.
A 62-percent majority of viewers says Kerry seemed more confident and self-assured (26% say so for Bush) and 51 percent say Kerry had better command of issues and facts (37% for Bush). Forty-seven percent say Kerry seemed more personally likeable (41 % for Bush) and 49 percent say Kerry came closer to reflecting their own views on most foreign policy issues (43% for Bush). The two were nearly even on several other points, including who came across as a strong leader (47% Kerry, 44% Bush) and who had a better plan for dealing with the situation in Iraq (45% for both). Forty percent of viewers thought Kerry was too wordy and 57 percent thought Bush was too repetitive.
Fifty-seven percent of all poll respondents say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time. Bush's job approval rating dropped two points from the Sept. 9-10 Newsweek Poll to 46 percent-a 6-point drop since the poll taken during and after the Republican convention. Forty-eight percent of registered voters polled say they would not like to see Bush re-elected but almost as many (46%) say they would.
Excerpt, the rest of the article is here: NEWSWEEK POLL: BUSH LEAD GONE
A whole lot rides on this election... If President Bush isn't going to go at it 100%, take the fight right to that scum, (rather than take the "high road" like his father), all of the admiration and respect that I have for him will quickly turn to hate.
If he doesn't have the heart or willingness to battle this at full speed, he should have stepped aside a while ago.
LOOK AT THE INTERNALS PEOPLE! Sheesh!
The poll is rigged. They changed the weighting of the Republicans, Democrats and Independents from one week to the next to produce a very slight lead. It's as bogus as the LA Times poll.
I know some of the people in this thread are trolls trying to stir up trouble, but everyone needs to get a grip and realize the media isn't above FRAUD to produce results they like.
Thanks. this explains it all:
Last Newsweek Poll (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040911/nysa006_1.html):
Republicans: 391 (40.73% of total sample)
Democrats: 300 (31.25% of total sample)
Independents: 270 (28.13% of total sample)
TOTAL: 960
New Newsweek Poll (http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/10-02-2004/0002263797&EDATE=):
Republicans: 345 (34.95% of total sample - 5.78% fewer Republicans)
Democrats: 364 (36.88% of total sample - 5.63% more Democrats)
Independents: 278 (28.17% of total sample - .04% more Indpendents)
TOTAL: 987
I have my own (differing) opinion about how W. did in the debates, so I won't go into that again. This is what you have to consider, as well as others here who are taking on an unrealistic Pollyanna, head-in-the-sand attitude. The mushy middle is not passionate for one candidate or the other, so they can/are going to be swayed by the debates. The average Joe and Jane are not like the true believers on either side, so we have to face facts and not live in a bubble and believe what we want to believe.
Generally speaking, the media is made up of liberals - as we've seen quite pointedly with the CBS situation. However, I believe that the public is so much better informed today because of the variety of media coverage, that our common sense often gets underestimated. Common sense will prevail & elect George W. Bush.
It wasn't taking the high road that did Bush 41 in. If you want to point to a moment in the debates, it's when he looked at his watch.
The dems no longer welcome moderates. You have to be nearly a rabid lefty to be welcome there. Well, we knew our welcome was worn out...we left..and haven't looked back. We are repubs for life.
I was sure there would be some bounce, but this is media inflation. And its no different than the media covering for the lack of bounce after the DNC convention..
Maybe so. Why did he agree to three?
Oh, there are most definitely some sleeper trolls on this thread and the fact they are working so hard to discourage people reeks of desperation.
Yea, I agree this is real cause for concern. I expected to see some slide after the debate, but not this much. I thought Bush did horrible in the Debate. I think he has to get much more aggressive and get off script. Hopefully this will wake up the Bush camp. We gotta keep fighting, next bounce will be ours.
What Bush Should Have Said
http://www.neoperspectives.com/1st_debate.htm
This isn't 1984, it's very different race. Newsweek has generally shown the same trends as the other polls, so I see no reason to dismiss this out of hand. And I didn't see anyone complaining about bias when we were ahead.
LOL. You are so transparent.
The embedded FR Mobies have lost control of their bowels.
That's just silly.
What The Old Newsweek Poll Would Have Been With The New One's Weighting:
In the Newsweek poll last month Bush got 93% of Republican respondants, 7% of Democratic Respondants and 39% of Independent Respondants. Kerry drew 87% of Democrats, 4% of Republicans and 45% of Independents. If you applied the same weighting for the old poll that showed Bush up +11 to the new Newsweek poll that shows Bush trailing by two points (in the three-way match-up) the results of the older poll would have been:
Bush with roughly 321 respondants from Republicans, 25 respondants from Democrats and 108 respondants from Independents for a total of 454 respondants out of 987 (Bush gets roughly 46% of the vote).
Kerry with roughly 317 respondants from Democrats, 14 respondants from Republicans and 125 respondants from Independents for a total of 456 respondants out of 987 (Kerry gets an almost identical 46% of the vote).
These results include some very minor rounding up in Kerry's favor.
The bottomline is that the new Newsweek poll would only show a 2% shift from the last poll if they had both used the same demographic weighting. And once the partisan make-up of each candidate's support in this new poll becomes public it will likely show that Bush would have netted similar results to the last poll if the partisan weighting had remained the same. The Kerry "bounce" is less from the debate than it is the people that Newsweek reached in its most recent poll.
I agree. There are a multitude of members who signed up within in the last three weeks here..
I won't lose my head. I know what both parties offer. Bush is the future of this country. Kerry is a european future. I'm american, not european.
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