Posted on 09/30/2004 8:01:24 AM PDT by BibChr
Having predictively nailed John McCain, I'd like to offer my brief thoughts on what Kerry will do tonight, and invite yours.
Today's Democratic Party's notion of Real Leadership could be defined thus: the ability to say, with the most nuanced conviction, "Wahh!!"
And so, since the Swift Both Vets' ads and Bush's ads have scored some tellingly accurate direct hits, and since those hits have cost Kerry dearly, I think this is Kerry's biggest plan. I think that he is being advised that the knockout punch will be to cry and moan and complain, and to put the President on the defensive. He will whine that the ads are mean-spirited and despicable. He will bellyache that they're the worst he's ever seen. And since evidently this vampire hasn't yet been staked with sufficient authority, he will whimper that (sing it with me) his Patriotism is Being Questioned.
The design of this will be to force the President to be on the defensive, to apologize, to disown.
Now, what Mr. Bush should say (but won't) is to ask, "So let's review. I'd like Mr. Kerry to say what I have said so far, repeatedly, about his patriotism, and about these ads. And if he can't, I'd like him to explain why anyone should think he'd hear tonight what he's failed to hear for lo these many weeks."
Or he should say (but won't), "I support Mr. Kerry's right to free speech. Does he not support the same right to other veterans, if that speech is critical of him?"
Or he should say (but won't), "I have wondered again and again: what exactly did Mr. Kerry mean when he said, 'Bring it on'? Now all we hear is 'Call it off!'"
Or he should say (but won't), "Someone should tell Mr. Kerry that being President is a rough job. It inevitable involves being the target of a lot of harsh criticism. If he can't take the pressure at this point, when he is selling his strength of character to the nation, perhaps he should reconsider his own immediate career plans."
So, Kerry will say "Wah!" about twelve different times, in about twelve different ways. I'm betting that's his main plan.
His other supposed knockout punch will be to ask where bin Laden is.
My prediction: Kerry will look a little less orange than he did three days ago.
Kerry got the choice positions -- lead off question and close. If he gets off to a decent start (first question from Lehrer will be on Iraq), he'll gain confidence.
Still can't hide his ugly looks, though.
Kerry will break the 32-page agreement and try to directly debate President Bush. He will demand that the President answer not the moderator's questions, but his own. I believe and hope the President is ready for this.
Bob Beckel announced this on Fox & Friends this morning. Expect it tonight.
By stating the truth, that the only ones calling for draft legislation are Democrats (and he should name them), and that Democrats installed the draft, Nixon ended it, and he (GWB) will not reinstate it.
GWB would have all Dem politicians nationwide scrambling and would put the final nails in Kerry's and the Dems coffin.
I predict that Kerry will also move away from his podium and attempt to invade the President's space. Lehrer will do nothing about it.
excellent post.
Does anyone know where the Bush rally will be after the debate? I know he is going to Pennsylvania tomorrow -- a good sign.
Well, Dan, i respectfully disagree that he's being advised that is his "knock out punch". it's too "predictable, and not effective enough.
i predict that Kerry will go on the offense big time by attempting to paint BUSH as a flip-flopper. He will also go after Bush "mispeaking" about the war on terror not being "winnable", to counter-balance Kerry's alledgedly mispoken "i voted for the 87 billion before i voted against it".
In other words, Kerry will come after Bush hard on areas where he's given two different statements, opinions, etc.
Kerry's strategy will be to make the whole flip-flop thing a "stand-off", a "tie", or a "truce", and thereby attempt to render the whole "flip=flop" charge by the Bush campaign as irrelevent.
Also, look for kerry to hit hard on the "mission accomplished" thing ("more almost 900 soldiers have been lost since then", etc.)
If i were on kerry's team, i would advise him that it is absolutely imperative that he go on offense and hit Bush HARD, and fast without letting up, and try to get the public to perceive that Bush is just as guilty of flip-flops, and everything else that he criticizes the Kerry campaign of.
Bottom line, Kerry absolutely must get Bush against the ropes, and repeat Bush "flip-flps" over and over and over, so that the headlines will seem to portray Bush as having the same problems as Kerry. I know this is not the reality, but it's what I would do if i were one of the liars in charge of the Kerry campaign.
President Bus to Mr. Kerry: "How many times did you fail to REPORT TO DUTY at Capital Hill this past year?"
In an attempt to un-orange his face Kerry will use Geisha Girl makeup.
I also second and agree with post 6 as my prediction in addition to what i've posted.
Only two of his answers will not have some reference to his time in the military.
Listen for the term "on points". Every commentator will say that Kerry won "on points".
(I've been dying to use that line after watching rocky3 over the weekend)
1. Kerry will be making a visible effort to not be "Kerry-like." He will be trying to out-Bush Bush by being folksie.
2. Kerry will relax his stilted speech patterns, but occasionally revert, momentarily, to his typical pompous self.
3. Bush will be confident and relaxed. He will likely "slip" and toss in a Bush-ism. He will make a joke about how he pronounces nuclear.
What we will hear afterwards (from the MSM):
1. "We saw a whole new Kerry tonight."
2. "Kerry clearly won on strictly factual basis."
3. "Bush seemed ill at ease and had forced attempts at humor."
Bush will gain two to three points in the national polls within a week of the debate.
President Bush has already clarified his statement about the “winning” of the war on terror the next day on Rush Limbaugh one day after he said this statement on Matt Lauer interview. He said on Rush show that what he meant that the war on terror cannot be won in the traditional way i.e. declaring victory day by having the terrorists surrendering and signing a surrender treaty. He said that we are winning this war every day and at the end we are going to prevail.
The fatal problem with John Kerry is that he has been already branded as a flip floper by the “majority” of voters, and he is not a leader and he is not fit to be President in this time of war. Nothing is going to change the “majority” of voters perception about John Kerry. Any new position he will take in the 90 minutes debate tonight will be viewed as another flip flop and the “majority” of voters will not believe him.
Kerry: "Wrong war, wrong time etc
Quagmire
Questioned my patriotism
1000 dead soldiers
Over 100 dead just today*
Do you want your son to be the last one to die, etc
I will fight smarter and get us out quicker
I've never changed my position on the war in Iraq
Must build a coalition, build consensus
President misled the people
President has no plan for peace
Blah, blah, blah
Mary Ann Marsh said that Kerry is going to go to the right of Bush on terrorism and Iraq. I hope Bush is ready for this-he could say "Sure, but how do you prosecute a war to win when you don't believe in the war" (worng war, wrong time, wrong way etc.) or even "But John, how do you ask a man to be the last man to die for a mistake?"
If Kerry breaks debate rules, I think all other debates will be cancelled.
After each answer, he'll make that little Buddist sign with his hands and then point his finger at someone in the crowd, as if to say, "I recognize somebody important out there, because I'm important."
I haven't seen him show any energy or make a truly intelligent move the whole campaign. What's embarrassing is how well he's doing despite that.
I keep waiting for the other big story about Kerry to become current--the lazy idler, the shiftless Senate bum. The guy who likes his title and its perks (which is why I believe he wants the presidency)--but is allergic to work. His missed meetings. The missed votes. All the fancy vacations playing with the toys TerAYza bought him.
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