Posted on 09/30/2004 8:01:24 AM PDT by BibChr
Having predictively nailed John McCain, I'd like to offer my brief thoughts on what Kerry will do tonight, and invite yours.
Today's Democratic Party's notion of Real Leadership could be defined thus: the ability to say, with the most nuanced conviction, "Wahh!!"
And so, since the Swift Both Vets' ads and Bush's ads have scored some tellingly accurate direct hits, and since those hits have cost Kerry dearly, I think this is Kerry's biggest plan. I think that he is being advised that the knockout punch will be to cry and moan and complain, and to put the President on the defensive. He will whine that the ads are mean-spirited and despicable. He will bellyache that they're the worst he's ever seen. And since evidently this vampire hasn't yet been staked with sufficient authority, he will whimper that (sing it with me) his Patriotism is Being Questioned.
The design of this will be to force the President to be on the defensive, to apologize, to disown.
Now, what Mr. Bush should say (but won't) is to ask, "So let's review. I'd like Mr. Kerry to say what I have said so far, repeatedly, about his patriotism, and about these ads. And if he can't, I'd like him to explain why anyone should think he'd hear tonight what he's failed to hear for lo these many weeks."
Or he should say (but won't), "I support Mr. Kerry's right to free speech. Does he not support the same right to other veterans, if that speech is critical of him?"
Or he should say (but won't), "I have wondered again and again: what exactly did Mr. Kerry mean when he said, 'Bring it on'? Now all we hear is 'Call it off!'"
Or he should say (but won't), "Someone should tell Mr. Kerry that being President is a rough job. It inevitable involves being the target of a lot of harsh criticism. If he can't take the pressure at this point, when he is selling his strength of character to the nation, perhaps he should reconsider his own immediate career plans."
So, Kerry will say "Wah!" about twelve different times, in about twelve different ways. I'm betting that's his main plan.
His other supposed knockout punch will be to ask where bin Laden is.
I also think he'll say things like "There were no WMD, Mr. Bush", using the prez's name condescendingly like he did in the Weld debates. It will make him sound bored with this provincial little president and oh-so-superior (he believes).
Kerry will sweat A LOT!
However, the Dems will have failed to actually give their candidate the heads-up about what's coming, and he will instead scream like a girl in front of the cameras...
So what do I win if this happens?
Since I can't find it, I'll describe it:
Gore is at home plate, baseball bat in hand, and he's pointing in the direction where he intends to knock the ball out of the park.
Meanwhile, behind gore, you can see that the ball has arrived in the catcher's glove and the umpire has already called the batter "out". ;)
Change the name from gore to kerry and that's my prediction. I just wish I had a link to Ramirez's classic cartoon. ;)
I predict:
1) Kerry will come off sounding as pompous as he really is.
2) President Bush will come off sounding sincere and likeable.
3) Kerry will ignore the rules of the debate and address the President directly, ask him questions and point fingers.
4) Kerry will interupt the President at least once.
5) Kerry will attempt to make jokes directed at the President and the crowd will love it but America will hate it, ultimately moving the swing firmly into the R column.
I don't know, my kids tell me I worry too much. I hope I'm wrong.
Or he should say (but won't), "I support Mr. Kerry's right to free speech. Does he not support the same right to other veterans, if that speech is critical of him?"
Or he should say (but won't), "I have wondered again and again: what exactly did Mr. Kerry mean when he said, 'Bring it on'? Now all we hear is 'Call it off!'"
Or he should say (but won't), "Someone should tell Mr. Kerry that being President is a rough job. It inevitable involves being the target of a lot of harsh criticism. If he can't take the pressure at this point, when he is selling his strength of character to the nation, perhaps he should reconsider his own immediate career plans."
I don't think it is smart to merely invite your opponent to respond to an open ended question or one that is too loosely framed. That gives him the opportunity to merely subtly change the question slightly into one that will allow him to hit it out of the park, or at least dodge the real issue making it look like he answered when he really didn't. Then you have to be the whiner next time your turn comes up and say "but he didn't really answer the question as I posed it..." and thus it's punch is lost.
Here is what you do: You ask the question and give the answer for your opponent using one of his quotes or a paraphrase of his quote. For instance:
I would like to ask Mr. Kerry how he plans to repair the terrible damage he has done to the relations with many of our allies by denigrating their sacrifices repeatedly on the campaign trail? Just a few weeks ago his campaign called the Iraqi prime minister a "puppet" and questioned his credibility saying that he is "out of touch with the realities on the ground". Mr. Kerry, why would you call our most important ally in the Iraq war, an extremely courageous man who has on numerous occasions been targeted for death by Sadaam Hussein and is targeted for death every day by the Al Queda terrorists and Baathist extremists in Iraq, who lives in Bagdhad, a puppet who is out of touch? How do you plan to repair that damage? Are you going to start now by offering an apology to Mr. Allawi? I mean, is this scorn what all our 30 allies such as Britain, Poland, South Korea, Japan, Thailand, Australia, Georgia, the Netherlands, (Bush names as many as he can), can expect to be treated for the money, blood, risk, and terrible sacrifice they have been making? You have some apologies to make, Senator, before you can ever think about winning over allies to fight with us in this great cause for freedom.This inserts his own recent quotes and completely frames it so that if Mr. Kerry does not apologize or deal with it directly he will look like he dodged it. You insert his quote(s) so that your question begs to be answered. You score in people's minds so that they too are on the edge of their seats wanting him to directly answer the question.
All of your questions are too easily changed by Kerry into blowback questions. Like, if I were Kerry responding to one about the veterans and free speech, I would just say something like:
"I think it is particularly pathetic that this president would even bring up veterans and free speech. First of all, I served in combat and he did not, no one disputes that. In fact, all we heard for the last two years was this man's party trying to deflect and hide from criticism about his policies under the blanket of 'we are at war and you should not criticize when we are at war.' Mr. Bush, we veterans fought so that people like you and many others could enjoy the free speech you abuse with these horrible character assasinations."See what I mean? He didn't even have to deal with the question and was able to turn it back into an issue he has a long suit in. You have to really ask questions really tightly around your strengths and make the audience really anticipate how the other is going to deal with it directly.
Kerry will attack, attack, attack.
My worry is not that the President will lose his temper. He won't.
My worry instead is that the President will be so repulsed by the ridiculous, vile distortions of Lurch that he will instead "check out" and lower his voice, mumble, and be seen on the defensive.
Kerry will not have gotten any sleep last night, and will be running on caffeine. Without sleep, Kerry tends to sound really bad - see his post-Republican convention response speech. He will also make at least one howler of a mistake thanks to his lack of sleep.
Bush will have gotten a normal night's sleep. This debate doesn't mean nearly as much to him as it does to Kerry. If he can just coast, he'll win the election. Kerry actually has to make up some enormous ground in public perception, and whether he does that rests almost entirely on his shoulders, not Bush's.
In a time-limited format, Bush has a huge advantage over Kerry because he is used to talking in sound bites, and his speechwriters are very good at providing them. Even in his speeches, Kerry has been long-winded but uninformative on a wide range of issues. I think it will be very difficult for him to resist this, especially if he's asked a question he didn't anticipate.
Bush will be able to trip Kerry easily on Iraq, no matter what Kerry's position. He's a hawk? "Then why did you vote against the $87 million? And why did you say the war was a mistake?" He's a dove? "Why did you vote to authorize force? Why did you say all those nasty things about Saddam having to go?"
Oops, I forgot. Why can't candidates ask each other questions? That seems like such a bizarre rule, and not in anyone's interest.
D
I predict that MSN's will call it a draw or say that Kerry ate President Bush's lunch spit him out and vomited him to his followers.I predict they will say President Bush does not look presidental, and I predict c bs will say the election is over and kerry won the election. They had a memo stating that fact.
I think he'll also try to make jokes about himself being an elitist stiff. But then he'll go on to point out George Bush is rich too, and Kerry is the only one who can understand poor people.
I also predict he'll make some joke about his wife being real or honest or something. Then he'll make an oh-so-subtle implication that Laura's some sort of "Stepford Wife".
Superb. I wish he'd do it.
Dan
I predict he'll use the word "quagmire." He'll get angry at least once, and mention Viet Nam at least three times. The over/under on mentioning his peanut butter sandwiches is 5/3 against. I predict at least one time during tonight's debate Kerry will say something so goofy that Bush will look at him with the same expression that you have when you look at someone who's having a seizure.
The problem is, this is extremely difficult for a Grey Alien to do.
Judge for yourself.
Compare to those pictures of Kerry on the Idaho slopes in March.
The media will portray Kerry as the hands down winner. I hope people are prepared for these bogus news stories tomorrow because that's what we'll see. I think many of the media pundits have already written their debate stories showing Kerry as the winner.
President Bush will do well and carry the day. He'll stay on message and won't be taken by surprise by any of Kerry's tricks.
I predict that with the rules agreed upon these "debates" will be less interesting than watching paint dry, will get historically low ratings for "debates", and in the end will probably have no measurable effect on the election.
"You belong to your father, the devil, and you want to carry out your father's desire. He was a murderer from the beginning, not holding to the truth, for there is no truth in him. When he lies, he speaks his native language, for he is a liar and the father of lies.
See tagline.
Yeah...RON Prescott Reagan, not Ronaldus Magnus.
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