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EARLY PEEK AT POLL RESULTS
Kerry Spot/NRO ^
| 9/27/04
| jim geraghty
Posted on 09/27/2004 11:45:04 AM PDT by Cableguy
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To: Rutles4Ever
Oh you can bet Jeb knows what chicanery lies ahead. He knows how the Dems tried to steal the election in 2000.
61
posted on
09/27/2004 12:03:53 PM PDT
by
rintense
(Results matter.)
To: Rutles4Ever
At any rate, DUmmies are ripping violin music in droves.... Kerry's new drinking song (you all saw the photo of Macho Man in the bar):
We had joy, we had fun,
We had seasons in the sun
But the stars we could reach
Were just starfish on the beach.
We had joy, we had fun,
We had seasons in the sun
My campaign, I did find
Was just windmills in my mind.
62
posted on
09/27/2004 12:04:04 PM PDT
by
Ciexyz
("FR, best viewed with a budgie on hand")
To: Cableguy
Bush continues to poll in the low 50s while Kerry polls in the low to mid 40s. Good! This poll result is a slight tightening from the 54-40 result last time, but that last poll seemed to be a bit of an outlier anyway. 52-44 is more in line with most other national polls.
63
posted on
09/27/2004 12:04:13 PM PDT
by
kesg
To: jdm
McGovern 38.2% in 1972. Don't know how Mondale did, but I think he was above 40%.
64
posted on
09/27/2004 12:04:13 PM PDT
by
ScaniaBoy
(Part of the Right Wing Research & Attack Machine)
To: flashbunny; All
I said somewhere in a different post that Bush will win all but 10 or 11 states. Right now he is well within the margin or in striking range of all but 10 states.
65
posted on
09/27/2004 12:05:10 PM PDT
by
Heff
("Liberty is not America's gift to the world, it's the Almighty's gift to humanity" GW Bush 4/12/04)
To: jdm
I'm going to have to do some research to find out when the last time a Presidential candidate secured less than 40% of the vote. Kerry will not score even 40% -- that's my prediction, anyway.1972.
66
posted on
09/27/2004 12:05:28 PM PDT
by
kesg
To: WildTurkey
One would think that he would be smart enough to know that appealing to the MAC crowd will not be worth many votes.
Smart Mac Users vote Republican!
Well Smart People vote Republican too I guess. Its really non exclusive in this sense. heh
To: Rutles4Ever
That's why I'm questioning the numbers. If this is true, this is a shift, because I don't recall any "likely-voters" polling data that shrunk the spread for the President before this. If true, it would suggest that Kerry's Iraq attacks have been successful in turning his depressed supporters who weren't going to vote into "likely voters", but has done little to win over independents. We shall see.
68
posted on
09/27/2004 12:06:29 PM PDT
by
ambrose
(http://www.swiftvets.com)
To: jdm
Bush 41 in 1992 at 38% assuming you mean D and R candidates only.
69
posted on
09/27/2004 12:07:41 PM PDT
by
RockinRight
(W stands for whoop-a**!!!)
To: Keith
Oops, forgot about that one. Before Bush 41, there was McGovern in 1972. 1972 was certainly the last time that the winner had over 60 percent of the vote. Clinton got only 43% in 1992.
70
posted on
09/27/2004 12:07:49 PM PDT
by
kesg
To: Kylie_04
Yeah, but there's also Maine, Oregon, New Jersey, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. The dike is getting more leaks than the Dims have fingers!
To: AppyPappy
We need to know the precentage of deceased voters who intend to vote before I know Kerry's probable tally.
72
posted on
09/27/2004 12:09:16 PM PDT
by
rod1
To: Rutles4Ever
73
posted on
09/27/2004 12:10:12 PM PDT
by
bcatwilly
(West Virginia is BUSH-Cheney Country!)
To: ambrose
Well, I hate to be a spoil-sport, but this does in fact represent a 6 point drop among likely voters over the past 10 days. Bush similarly dropped 4 to 5 points in the Time poll. I look at it like this: several weeks ago the Bush camp said it looked like they were 6 points up. McCurry said at a DNC fundraiser in CA a week and a half ago that their polls had Bush up 7 points. All the major polls now pretty much validate this.
74
posted on
09/27/2004 12:10:32 PM PDT
by
Tennessean4Bush
(An optimist believes we live in the best of all possible worlds, a pessimist fears this is true.)
To: spodefly
Rush mentioned today that Kerry had a lead of 5% of dead voters. Not sure of the source.
75
posted on
09/27/2004 12:10:37 PM PDT
by
JTHomes
To: jdm
76
posted on
09/27/2004 12:11:49 PM PDT
by
Tennessean4Bush
(An optimist believes we live in the best of all possible worlds, a pessimist fears this is true.)
To: SamAdams76
When was the last time a candidate came from behind on account of the debates? I'm hard pressed to think of a single instance except for the 1960 Kennedy/Nixon debates. Actually, this is a myth. Kennedy and Nixon were tied going into the debate, Kennedy got a three point bump, but had lost it again by election day (the election essentially ended in a tie.
The only election that was materially affected by a debate was 1980. Carter had actually led Reagan going into that debate, but there was a massive shift immediately following the debate that continued to Election Day. If you actually crunch the pre-and post-debate poll numbers, there is simply no hard evidence -- again leaving aside the 1980 election -- that they were materially affected by debates.
77
posted on
09/27/2004 12:12:10 PM PDT
by
kesg
To: ambrose
Worrying is a useless and counterproductive emotion. Counterproducers of the world, unite! Make the debates one big worryfest. (yeah, i'm worried too;hope he doesn't project poorly)
78
posted on
09/27/2004 12:12:14 PM PDT
by
philomath
(from the state of franklin)
To: mystery-ak
I've been waiting for some polls this week since Kerry's new stance on Iraq last week......sorry Kerry, it didn't work. Add to that: I've been waiting for hanoi john to do the honorable thing, ala Bob Dole, and resign his Senate seat.
79
posted on
09/27/2004 12:12:24 PM PDT
by
AxelPaulsenJr
(Excellence In Posting Since 1999)
To: jdm
I'm going to have to do some research to find out when the last time a Presidential candidate secured less than 40% of the vote. You should focus on elections where there was no major third-party candidate, since George H.W. Bush received only about 37% of the popular vote in 1992.
80
posted on
09/27/2004 12:13:19 PM PDT
by
Alberta's Child
(I made enough money to buy Miami -- but I pissed it away on the Alternative Minimum Tax.)
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