Posted on 09/23/2004 12:54:32 PM PDT by West Coast Conservative
President George W. Bush is trusted on moral leadership and seen as the better candidate to handle terrorism and Iraq, and Democrat John Kerry is strong on the issues of health care and the economy. Overall, Bush holds his post-convention edge over Kerry, a FOX News poll finds, though the presidential race remains tight.
The new national poll of likely voters shows Bush ahead of Kerry by 45 percent to 43 percent. In the three-way matchup Bush is backed by 46 percent of voters, Kerry 42 percent and independent candidate Ralph Nader one percent. The results are well within the poll's margin of error, and show just how divided the national electorate continues to be.
The poll finds Bush not only receives strong support from his core constituencies such as Republicans (92 percent), those living in the South (52 percent), and men (48 percent), but that he also cuts into his challenger's support among women — a voting group that has traditionally backed the Democratic candidate.
In 2000, over half of women voted for former Vice President Al Gore over Bush (54 percent to 43 percent), and in recent polls Kerry has held a slim lead among women. Today Bush slightly edges out Kerry among female voters: 44 percent to 42 percent.
Kerry receives some of his strongest support from young voters (57 percent), non-whites (62 percent), and those living in the West (49 percent).
Throughout the campaign the intensity of support has been higher among Bush voters than Kerry voters, but Kerry's numbers have been improving steadily. Today, over three-quarters of Bush voters (76 percent) say they support him "strongly," which is about where it has been for the last few months. Among Kerry voters, 72 percent support him "strongly" today, up from 64 percent a month ago.
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
All the polls that use that weighting show a 3-4 point (roughly) Bush lead at the moment. The ones that do not use weightings, show W up by roughly 8 - 14 points.
It will be interesting to see if this disparity holds up or if the numbers will start to converge as we get closer to election day.
We are currently up between 4 and 6pts nationally -
Many key States are moving away from Kerry (WI,IA, NV,CO,FL, OH) - But most of these States will still be somewhat close on election day (GWB wins of 2 to 6pts).
We are sitting fine right now. Less than 50 days from an election and Kerry has much ground to make up.
Bottom-line still is and always has been turnout, turnout, turnout in about half-dozen States will decide this election.
I don't see Nader's numbers increasing as the election nears. We don't need them to and I don't think he will get more than 1.8% nationally.
Very true. It will be interesting to see what the breakdown of voter registration is after the election this year. I think we will have a very high voter turnout, all the way around.
My guess is it will look like 40D-37R-23I
"Kerry has NOT broken 42%."
Clinton didn't break 43% in 1992
and he never got a majority in 1996.
Since when! The MSM resorts to blatant criminal fraud against a sitting wartime President, and he's still +6. I'd say that's peachy!
Nixon '72 is the only time the MSM, since the advent of evening snooz, was roundly ignored in a hot war, and that's because (a) McGovern was a blundering Trotskyite; and (b) Dick's Law-and-Order message resonated big-time with people who had paid out the ass for college tuition only to find out on TV that Junior was skipping classes at Big State and getting stirred up by Fonda and Kerry!
Karma is a beautiful thing. The impending Bush '04 landslide will prove to be the MSM's permanent downfall.
Looks good to me. Applying breakdown to this poll would give Bush a 47.0 - 41.8 lead and would likely mean an electoral landslide.
I wonder if the DUmmies are liking this Fox poll as much as this one: http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/082604_poll.pdf
Then we try harder. Republicans control the house, the senate, the white house, majority of the governorships. Republicans appoint Supreme Court judges that actually interpret the law not invent it. That is NO small accomplishment. We can keep that ball rolling. The internet is giving us a stronger voice. Look at CBS humiliatad! The alphabet news channels are plummeting in viewership. More people watched the Republican convention then democrats. A first in a looong time! Zell Miller a democrat spoke! Amazing. We have new ways to fight the liberals, and Kerry gives us fresh ammo everday. Use it! Lets go for landslide. Campaign everday like its the day before election day and we are behind. Every day counts. One individual CAN make a difference. We know that now.
You are in the minority, and I might add, IMO you are wrong.
However it doesn't matter, for Kerry has already laid the DNC political bed and they have no choice but to lay in it.
Time IS a pertinent and eternal factor and Kerry has overlooked that simple and understandable factor and augmented by his promotion of political deceit placed upon him by his lack of conviction and political direction, because of concern of voter descent, because of such conviction, it can only lead him to a lack of political direction that is not enticing to the public to promote the want to vote for him.
I've been to DU, and I can say with confidence that they can't spell well enough to forge. Of course, if the next set of forgeries contains a lot of "F" words, all bets are off.
Agree there could be a close to EV landslide for GWB. The State maps are really trending our way right now.
Kerry my guess is moving his focus to FL instead of OH as his major "switch" State - His un-patriotic rehtoric won't fly in the State of OH -
I really do think we will close the 4pt gap that existed in 2000 (39D-35R). To at least down to a 3pt to 3.5pt gap.
Agree there could be a close to EV landslide for GWB. The State maps are really trending our way right now.
Kerry my guess is moving his focus to FL instead of OH as his major "switch" State - His unpatriotic rhetoric won't fly in the State of OH -
I really do think we will close the 4pt gap that existed in 2000 (39D-35R). To at least down to a 3pt to 3.5pt gap.
But remember the third-party Perot factor cut into the Republican vote and allowed Clinton to survive these elections with such low numbers.
Foxnews polls always have a high number of undecided.
Keep the faith. I still think we're on our way to a 42-state landslide.
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