Looking at the internals, it appears that Opinion Dynamics is weighting their sample to basically reflect a 39-D, 35-R, 26-I turnout model.
All the polls that use that weighting show a 3-4 point (roughly) Bush lead at the moment. The ones that do not use weightings, show W up by roughly 8 - 14 points.
It will be interesting to see if this disparity holds up or if the numbers will start to converge as we get closer to election day.
Looking at the internals, it appears that Opinion Dynamics is weighting their sample to basically reflect a 39-D, 35-R, 26-I turnout model. All the polls that use that weighting show a 3-4 point (roughly) Bush lead at the moment. The ones that do not use weightings, show W up by roughly 8 - 14 points. It will be interesting to see if this disparity holds up or if the numbers will start to converge as we get closer to election day. Very true. It will be interesting to see what the breakdown of voter registration is after the election this year. I think we will have a very high voter turnout, all the way around.
My guess is it will look like 40D-37R-23I