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Dedicated to the Fantasy Life of John Kerry The Great Pretender Click the faker for music The Platters (Thanks for the idea, Fawnn!)
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Posted on 09/22/2004 9:23:30 PM PDT by StarCMC
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Bowing to political realities, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry has canceled plans to begin broadcasting television commercials in Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana and the perennial battleground of Missouri.
The decision to shrink his political playing field reduces Kerry's strategic options -- at least for now -- in the homestretch of the campaign. George W. Bush won all four states in 2000, and Kerry can't win the White House without taking a state or two from the Republican incumbent.
While pulling back from some states that Bush carried, Kerry is still strongly competing in several GOP-leaning battlegrounds, including Ohio, Florida, Colorado and Nevada.
Ads were scheduled to begin airing Oct. 5 in Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana and Missouri as part of a $5 million investment through Nov. 2, but campaign advisers concluded Kerry isn't doing well enough in the states to justify the cost.
The campaign, which has reserved commercial time in 20 states through Election Day, notified television stations in the four states that Kerry would not follow through on his plans for the first week of October.
Plans are still in place to air ads starting the second week of October, campaign officials said, but those will likely be tabled, too.
The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Arizona, Arkansas and Louisiana are unlikely to see Kerry ads unless there is a major shift in the campaign's dynamics. Missouri is still the subject of debate inside the campaign, with some advisers pushing to advertise in the traditional swing state.
With its burgeoning exurbs and rural areas turning more Republican every day, Missouri cannot be won by Kerry in a close race, some advisers have concluded. But some think it's important for the Democrat to spend money there, forcing President Bush to defend the GOP turf.
Bush and the Republican National Committee have been advertising moderately in Arizona and Missouri. With Kerry chased from those states, Bush can shift their budgets -- $330,000 this week alone -- to states that Democratic presidential nominee Al Gore won four years ago.
Kerry spent about $15 million in the four states, half of it in Missouri, trying to put them in play. It was part of a strategy to stretch the battlefield into GOP territory, from Virginia and North Carolina in the South to Arizona in the Southwest and Nevada in the West.
Constantly shifting their strategies, both campaigns recently increased their ad budgets in West Virginia and Colorado. Bush has boosted his ads in Minnesota, Maine and Oregon -- all states won by Gore that Kerry can't afford to lose.
Ohio and Florida, with a combined 47 electoral votes, offer Kerry his best hope of claiming territory won by Bush in 2000. After that, the options dwindle to a few small states: New Hampshire, Nevada, West Virginia and Colorado.
Kerry ads are running in 14 of the 20 states in which he reserved commercial time. His schedule calls for ads to begin airing next month in Washington state and North Carolina.
Because of population shifts since 2000 that favor Republicans, Kerry could win every state taken by Gore in 2000 and would have just 260 electoral votes, 10 short of winning the presidency. Gore lost to Bush by five electoral votes, 271-267.
Arkansas, Louisiana, Arizona, Missouri, Florida, Ohio, Colorado, West Virginia, Nevada.
He just wrote off his chances in four of those because he trails, and he trails in the other five. In the meantime, Wisconsin and New Mexico, razor thin wins in 2000 for Dems, have now slipped into the Bush column, while Maryland, New Jersey, Oregon, Washington, Pennsylvania and Minnesota, all comfortable 2000 Dem wins, are now up for grabs, with Bush actually leading in Oregon.
Kerry is doomed.
Nevada?
What do they have 3 electoral votes?
Arkansas has been listed as too close to call by various polls throughout the spring and summer, and now Kerry has virtually conceded it. What are those internal polls in his campaign showing? I think it's worse than we know.
Jenjis is certainly not the kind of demokrat that can win here. Hopefully, Bush comes here to help Matt Blunt in his governor's race. I am not sure if Kit Bond's opponent in the Senate race has even run any ads.
The prez has quite a war chest
Already having a negative economic impact on folks, I see.
I wonder why Im getting Kerry ads in TX?
I guess its because its on national news feeds.
Its heavy on Fox
Something like that I think!! I was SO excited when I heard this story on the news tonight!!!
In the past several election cycles, the person who won Missouri went on to win the country. I heard from someone that MO actually has picked ALL of the winners, but I'm not sure if that's true or not. In any case, pulling out of MO is a bad omen for Ketchup boy! YIPPEE!!!!!
ROFLMBO!!!!
OOPs! there goes another rubber tree plant.
Is it just me or is Kerry pulling ads from more and more states? It seems to me that he's starting have fewer and fewer options as the states he was battling Bush for are starting show more Bush supporters than Kerry.
I don't understand... how does one reconcile this news with the most recent Electoral vote estimates???
www.electoral-vote.com
I just looked.
Its 5 Votes
Kerry is scrapping for 5 electoral votes with the last of the money.
That is good news
**but campaign advisers concluded Kerry isn't doing well enough in the states to justify the cost.**
Hmmmmm.
From my recent encounters with Dems in NY, there is more truth than poetry in that statement.
I'm reminded of a visual image: (well, two actually...) In the Wizard of OZ,
-throwing water on the Witch of the West (in this case, the 'guy' from the East [Mass.], and seeing her begin to melt, going down in smoke;
-'pay no attention to that man behind the curtain'....
(Doesn't 'W' have a Toto-like dog as I recall?)
It's over. Landslide.
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Dedicated to the Fantasy Life of John Kerry The Great Pretender Click the faker for music The Platters (Thanks for the idea, Fawnn!)
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I'm reminded of a visual image: (well, two actually...) In the Wizard of OZ,
-throwing water on the Witch of the West (in this case, the 'guy' from the East [Mass.], and seeing her begin to melt, going down in smoke;
-'pay no attention to that man behind the curtain'....
(Doesn't 'W' have a Toto-like dog as I recall?)
It's over. Landslide.
[using my best B'rer Rabbit impersonation] Oh, Mistah Kerry, please don't buy any advertisin' in North Carolina. I be so scared that Dubya will lose dis state. Oh, please, Mistah Kerry, have mercy! B'rer Dubya needs NC so badly. I'd just hate to see you take advertising dollars from Wisconsin and Minnesota and Iowa, and move them into North Carolina. Please don't throw us into that briar patch...
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