Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Hurricane Ivan -- Thursday 9/16 thread [Landfall!]
NWS/NHC, various | 9/16/2004

Posted on 09/15/2004 7:38:29 PM PDT by lainie

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 55

Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan coming closer to the northern Gulf Coast...strong winds already moving onshore...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.

At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 88.1 west or about 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline.

Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the hurricane will reach the coast early on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.

People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly with little or no warning when the eye passes.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained winds of 54 mph with a gust to 83 mph...and Pensacola Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 51 mph with a gust to 68 mph.

The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was 933 mb...27.55 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama... the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.

Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 88.1 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Pasch

$$




Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

this thread continuing from http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1216382/posts


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Georgia; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi; US: Tennessee; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: hurricane; hurricaneivan; ivan
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 781-800801-820821-840 ... 981 next last
To: hawkk

If it goes to sea, it may come back again up north? Right now it is dropping 2 inches of rain per hour! That is what is most worrisome right now.


801 posted on 09/16/2004 12:06:49 PM PDT by TheLion
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 798 | View Replies]

To: BurbankKarl

One of the shopkeepers walks out of Sarahs, a three story dress shop in downtown Pensacola, laid open by Hurricane Ivan's winds and storm surge September 16, 2004. The shop was in the lower end of the downtown area that flooded as well as took the brunt of Ivan's winds.

802 posted on 09/16/2004 12:07:27 PM PDT by BurbankKarl
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 800 | View Replies]

To: Alas Babylon!

Glad the tornado was not on the ground and you are OK. Warnings are now in North Georgia around Oconee County. This thing is so big. My mom is OK. She doesn't have electricity but has phone service and a portable radio. She is in great spirits so I feel better. Thanks for the report.



803 posted on 09/16/2004 12:11:51 PM PDT by AUsome Joy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 779 | View Replies]

To: TheLion

I understand your concerns, and I'm sending out prayers to all in your area. I have just looked at the latest pics posted on the PNJ and can't stop crying....it's just so sad. I just hope that Ivan dies before it can reach anywhere near the waters again to start back up. I know my imagination is going a little crazy right now, but I can see it coming up to this area of VA and I'd get slammed twice from Ivan.


804 posted on 09/16/2004 12:12:01 PM PDT by hawkk
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 801 | View Replies]

To: lifacs

Please ping me on any more info on Gulf Breeze (Pins Lane).


805 posted on 09/16/2004 12:15:52 PM PDT by EX52D
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 762 | View Replies]

To: valleygal; All
No, Destin Harbour had some damage during Opal, but survived. "The World's Luckiest Fishing Village" sign was destroyed but quickly replaced.

Santa Rosa Island is in the Pensacola area. Okaloosa Island is the small strip between Ft. Walton Beach and Destin (where you used to surf and hang out).

Shep said that Eglin is going to send a Helicopter to the area to get some aerial shots within the hour!

sw

806 posted on 09/16/2004 12:17:44 PM PDT by spectre (Spectre's wife)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 731 | View Replies]

To: onyx

Onyx, I've been following this. God Bless your beautiful family. Regards, sw


807 posted on 09/16/2004 12:19:49 PM PDT by spectre (Spectre's wife)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 727 | View Replies]

To: BurbankKarl

"Nine alligators were on the loose in the Alabama town of Gulf Shores, after they escaped from a zoo in floodwaters caused by Hurricane Ivan"


Yikes! As if there are not enough of those guys swimming around out here naturally!


808 posted on 09/16/2004 12:20:49 PM PDT by thesearethetimes...
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 800 | View Replies]

To: EX52D

I logged on specifically to try to get info about Gulf Breeze. My family and I live in Gulf Breeze Proper but evacuated to a friend's house at Ft. Benning, GA. My son and daughter were keeping in close touch with their friends in Gulf Breeze yesterday by phone. We have been unable to contact anyone today. I hate to say it, but after watching news reports, I fear the worst. My husband and eldest son left Ft. Benning about 15 minutes ago headed back to Gulf Breeze to help with medical care, cleanup, etc., ... and to see what is left of our home. I will let you know if I hear anything.


809 posted on 09/16/2004 12:21:25 PM PDT by rangermedicswife
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 607 | View Replies]

To: lainie

Here's an E-Mail I just sent to FOX News, FYI;

TO: ontherecord@foxnews.com

Ahoy there, Greta;

We've been following FOX News coverage of "Ivan" with interest.

One thing that never ceases to amaze me is that these "on the scene" reporters are telling us that under no circumstances should we venture outdoors in these conditions... while they are standing there in the teeth of a hurricaine getting soaked to the skin and getting blown all over the parking lot!

Yeah; RIGHT, guys!

But here's my major 'issue"; One stalwart chap is telling us how one victim of a tornado was hit in the head by a piece of wind blown debries and died of head trauma. That is a pity indeed...
...but where's this Reporter's HELMET??!!

A lot of these same Reporters were "Imbeds" during the Iraq War and didn't mind going on camera wearing a kevlar noggin-pot; so they feel comfortable in 70 MPH winds with potentially dangerous debries flying around bare-headed?

If something that weighs a couple of pounds whacks you in the gourd at 70MPH or more, it's gonna SMART!
It's gonna mess up more than your hair-do, I'm here to tell ya!
At over 100 MPH, it could well be lethal!

Even if our Star Reporter (and his Crew) are in the relative protection of buildings, high winds could hoist debries over or around said structure and, in the vortex of the lee, drop them onto whatever or whoever might be below.

High winds can blow you down; tumbling along driven by 100MPh winds until you hit something solid can induce some nasty trauma, don't you know?

I would not go out in anything over 50 MPH winds without a motorcycle, skydiving, or at least a rock climbing helmet on for basic protection. Shucks; break out those old Iraqi Imbed lids out at the very least!

So it looks goofy; it could save your brain, for goodness' sake!

While we're on the subject; ever get a particle of sand or bug in your eye riding a motorcycle? A june-bug almost took me OFF of my bike once with impact on my left shoulder, going about 45 MPH. Bikers have been KILLED hitting large birds going not much faster than that. And your guys are out in 75 MPH gusts unprotected?

OK....

These folks should be equipped with GOGGLES or some sort of eye protection out there too, just as if they were riding a motorcycle at those speeds.

And if they are going to stand around in high wind conditions, a couple of other tips;

Loose clothing like those raincoats they wear flap around and increase wind resistance or "drag".
This is why Skydivers wear loose floppy jump suits - to slow their "terminal velocity" or rate of decent a little. On the ground however, this "drag" gives the wind something to grab you by and yank you around with.

Have them try wearing what bicycle racers wear for minimal drag - Spandex or something -; or better yet a Scuba Diver's "dry-suit" for reduced drag and some protection from the elements at the same time.
Those things also have a lot of floatation, in case our Hero gets washed out to sea or down the river, Heaven forbid.
Being made of a foam rubber about a quarter inch thick, they might afford a little protection from small projectile debries as well.

If said Heroes are... "brave" (foolish?) enough to be out and about in anything approaching Cat. 4 winds, they need to be wearing a Climber's safety harness and be tethered securely to some static, solid "anchor".
It might not be a bad idea to rope the Crew together as Mountain Climbers do when ascending a steep face or glacier.

If anyone goes down in that wind, they are going to "fall" - HORIZONTALLY - untill they fetch up against something that is sufficiently solid, heavy, or rooted so as to be not blowing around.

And that's gotta hurt!

So as much as I appreciate the FOX News team's efforts to bring us timely, CREDIBLE (can't say that for some other Network we can think of....) and interesting news, please try to keep your people who bring us this news from where it's happenin' reasonably SAFE!

We've kinda taken to sorta liking them, after all. };^{)~

"Uncle Jaque" (FReeper and FOXFan)
Former NH State Police (5.5yrs), EMT (Yarmouth Rescue Unit, 14 yrs.); Compulsive Safety Freak.
Yarmouth, Maine USA


810 posted on 09/16/2004 12:27:02 PM PDT by Uncle Jaque (Vigilance!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TheLion

I haven't seen or hard anything in a while.

Nothing personal, but since you're northwest of me, that sound good for me. I really hope you're wrong - the folks in Richmond can't handle it.


811 posted on 09/16/2004 12:28:25 PM PDT by Gabz (Hurricanes and Kerry/Edwards have 2 things in common - hot air and destruction.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 794 | View Replies]

To: rangermedicswife

We evacuated from Pensacola to NC to stay with family. We are going nuts to know what is going on with our house on Audubon Drive off of Creighton Rd.Anyone in that area? I have talked to several people around P'cola and they have lost every tree in their yard. The bridge going from Gulf Breeze to P'cola Beach has lost a 30 foot section. The only news I can find is on Pensacola News Journal.


812 posted on 09/16/2004 12:29:00 PM PDT by AFPS
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 809 | View Replies]

To: Uncle Jaque

The Crowne Plaza Hotel suffered heavy damage to the top floors in the hotel. These face east. (Pensacola)

813 posted on 09/16/2004 12:29:33 PM PDT by BurbankKarl
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 810 | View Replies]

To: All

Just heard on radio that Alabama Power has 800,000+ customers without power in Alabama. Total customers of Alabama Power in Alabama is 1,300,000. Ivan is just now making it past Birmingham, a little more than halfway through the state.


814 posted on 09/16/2004 12:29:38 PM PDT by BamaBlue
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 809 | View Replies]

To: Alas Babylon!
My cousin lives in Birmingham, so I have been watching the NOAA site at

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/forecasts/ALZ024.php?warncounty=ALC073&city=Birmingham

Looks like this afternoon will be the worst with winds from 55 to 60 mph.

815 posted on 09/16/2004 12:42:06 PM PDT by NCjim
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 779 | View Replies]

To: BurbankKarl

Someone on MSNBC reported going by a pizza restaurant in Gulf Shores where the front of the building is completely gone, but the dishes stacked in the back are still stacked and unbroken.


816 posted on 09/16/2004 12:43:55 PM PDT by lainie
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 802 | View Replies]

To: AUsome Joy

I meant to ping you on this as well...


817 posted on 09/16/2004 12:44:12 PM PDT by NCjim
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 815 | View Replies]

To: hawkk

It will stall as it gets caught in a coldfront...it will eventually, technically, go "out to sea" just like all former huricanes do, but it ain't coming back.


818 posted on 09/16/2004 12:48:08 PM PDT by ContemptofCourt
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 798 | View Replies]

To: ContemptofCourt

I am sure you are right. I did say my imagination was going crazy!! lol


819 posted on 09/16/2004 12:51:48 PM PDT by hawkk
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 818 | View Replies]

To: rangermedicswife

Thank you so much!


820 posted on 09/16/2004 12:53:28 PM PDT by EX52D
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 809 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 781-800801-820821-840 ... 981 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson