Posted on 09/15/2004 7:38:29 PM PDT by lainie
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 55
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan coming closer to the northern Gulf Coast...strong winds already moving onshore...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 88.1 west or about 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline.
Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the hurricane will reach the coast early on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.
People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly with little or no warning when the eye passes.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained winds of 54 mph with a gust to 83 mph...and Pensacola Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 51 mph with a gust to 68 mph.
The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was 933 mb...27.55 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center.
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.
Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.
Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama... the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 88.1 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking
this thread continuing from http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1216382/posts
I posted this earlier, but in case you didn't catch it, Naverre was right at the eastern edge of the 100 MPH windfields. I use 100 MPH as a cutoff since it roughly corresponds to a 40 pound per square foot side load, which is something of an industry standary in construction.
See this image for a general overview of the geometry of the strike, based on early analysis, a 13.2 foot surge, and not including tide effects:
http://users.in-motion.net/~jefft/tech/Mapping/afghanistan/4msurgetext.jpg
My family lives just a short distance from the I-10 bridge and uses the HWY 90 bridge daily. The HWY 90 bridge has been under replacement for a few years now. The growth of Santa Rosa County means that the load on the bridges is quite heavy during commuting times.
I'm still holding my breath waiting for some on the ground damage reports from the area. Not if there is damage, but how much. And when can the family go back home.
Green Party demanding reparations from people who had the gall to establish a city.
Hang in there!! It's almost over. Will keep you and your family in my houghts and prayers.
A couple of years ago there was construction on Avalon feeding south to I-10, Hwy 90 east of Milton, Hwys 87 and 85 headed north from Milton, and the bride work on Hwy 90 headed west out of Pace. In other words, no way out for heavy traffic. They had everyone penned in.
I'm still curious about what has happened in the Santa Rosa communities.
sigh... 4 hours sleep worrying about this storm--- ooops
Does anyone have any information on Gulf Breeze?
With any luck, the majority of the damage will be roofs and trees, like Charley and Frances. Hope for the best, plan for the worst. FWIW, other than the barrier islands, computer analysis doesn't indicate that huge areas were subject to surge effects. Anecdotal reports are calling it at 15 to 16 feet so far.
I notice that I-10 also crosses a smaller bay about 8 miles east of where we already know it failed. Regardless of whether that other bridge was affected, expect it to be closed until it can be inspected. Same probably goes for the highway 90 and the railroad bridge.
FEMA's going to have to do significant re-routing in the early stages of hauling in aid.
Glad your sister is fine! If you hear anything about the Seaside/Grayton Beach area, would you let me know? Thanks!
From the NHC's 5 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook:
Satellite images and ship reports indicate that a tropical depression appears to be forming about 460 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. If this trends continues...advisories will be initiated later today.
I'd like to hear info about Navarre, Gulf Breeze, Destin, Okaloosa Island and the beaches of South Walton County. The Sand Dunes and sea oats restoration couldn't have survived?!
sw
Significant challenges to say the least.
Hwy 90 barely accomdates the local traffic since the new Superwalmart and Home Depot came in. Now rerouting all the traffic that normally flows through I-10 through the communities of Milton, Pea Ridge, and Pace will be tough indeed. This is an area where one could still easily count the traffic lights! It just isn't suitable for heavy traffic.
There are no nearby alternate routes for traffic flowing on I-10. Look at the regional maps. Cut I-10 at Pensacola and you really impact all east-west traffic.
Seriesly, this is hugh. Hugher than anyone not local can imagine. And I'm trying to keep some humor, so that the moose won't eat my cheese. I guess I'll take a shower.
Statement as of 10:00 am CDT on September 16, 2004
...Ivan moving northward across western Alabama and weakening...
At 10 CDT...1500z...the Hurricane Warning has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning from the mouth of the Pearl River to Apalachicola Florida. All coastal warnings are discontinued elsewhere.
At 10 am CDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Ivan was located near latitude 32.0 north...longitude 87.5 west or about 65 miles west-southwest of Montgomery Alabama.
Ivan is moving toward the north near 14 mph. A gradual turn toward the northeast and a decrease in forward speed are expected during the next 24 hours. This motion should bring the center across central Alabama today and into northeastern Alabama tonight.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph...with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours... and Ivan will likely weaken to a tropical storm this afternoon.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles...mainly to the southeast of the center. The emergency operations center in Demopolis Alabama recently reported sustained winds of 72 mph.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb...28.64 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding will be diminishing today
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.
Maximum rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with locally higher amounts over the southern Appalachians...can be expected in association with Ivan through Saturday.
Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in eastern Alabama... the Florida Panhandle...western Georgia...eastern Tennessee... western South Carolina...and western North Carolina.
Repeating the 10 am CDT position...32.0 N... 87.5 W. Movement toward...north near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 75 mph. Minimum central pressure... 970 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 PM CDT.
Forecaster Beven
Is highway 90 limited or full access?
Looking at zooms of the I-10 bridge image, I don't see any evidence of piers out of alignment, but even so, the time to repair it will be weeks at minimum, more likely months. You're looking at a year or more if they have to dig and set new piers.
I just woke up. We got a call at 3:30 this morning from my sister asking us to pray for my Dad. I had just talked to him last night and he thought he'd be OK, had little rain at that time. My step-mom had already evacuated to a friend's but dad didn't want to go.
He's in DeFuniak Springs, about 15 miles inland and about 30 miles NE of FT. Walton Bch. Ft. Walton is about 20 miles or more east of Pensacola.
He woke up in his mobile home at 1 am to gusting wind, got to his (very secure) barn to be with his 8 mini horses. I called him after sis called me, wind was over 100 miles an hour and he had gotten at lease 7 inches of rain in a short time.
He had a radio going in the barn to hear the reports and said he was mad!. "Dam*, this is no tropical storm, this is a HURRICANE!". He was there for Opal and didn't get near the wind and rain. He wasn't expecting what he got. (I don't know why, though). He seemed to be doing OK in the midst of it and was riding it out. He has a phone in his barn. :)
I just called him and he's so mad. Winds are now about 50 mph, The property is a mess and Walton Cty. is under curfew and he can't leave his property. He said a few things about "democracy" and said he had to go. :)
Hey, better a shower than a torrential downpour...
That isn't a good sign...no driver.
LOL!!!
Limited. The communities have grown around it over the past few years. Hwy 90 is now the only direct way in and out.
For commercial traffic to by pass this bridge means bypassing Pensacola altogether. Commercial traffic, tourists and travlers. What will that do to the economy?
There is no other east-west route that can handle the traffic.
Keeping you in my prayers, too. Dad said houses on the beach at Destin, homes on stilts, washed away. I lived on Santa Rosa Island off Ft. Walton as a kid and I know the house I lived in is probably under water (again). It was with Opal, too.
We're planning a trip over in Nov. I'm sure everything will still be a mess.
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