Posted on 09/15/2004 7:38:29 PM PDT by lainie
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 55
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan coming closer to the northern Gulf Coast...strong winds already moving onshore...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 88.1 west or about 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline.
Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the hurricane will reach the coast early on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.
People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly with little or no warning when the eye passes.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained winds of 54 mph with a gust to 83 mph...and Pensacola Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 51 mph with a gust to 68 mph.
The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was 933 mb...27.55 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center.
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.
Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.
Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama... the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 88.1 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
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this thread continuing from http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1216382/posts
Good Morning, things seem to be very calm here,just east of Atlanta. My 6 year old went on to school. Waiting to hear news out of Destin, my parents live there.
This is EARLY analysis, but it is a useful illustration of what happened and where:
http://users.in-motion.net/~jefft/tech/Mapping/afghanistan/4msurgetext.jpg
This is a complex image. First, a pair of one degree coverage 30 meter per pixel digital elevation models (DEMs) were merged, and displayed with normal sea levels and coastlines.
The sea level data was extracted, and saved in a temporary file.
Next, the same two DEMs were merged and displayed with an increase in sea level of 4 meters, or 13.2 feet. The temporary file with the normal sea level data was then overlaid onto the "Plus 4 meter Merge", and then vector data including county borders and city locations added.
Finally, windfield data from
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/
was analyzed to generate the eye, eyewall, and 100 MPH boundary, and used to generate the maximum surge indicators to complete the composite image. The general location of eyewall landfall and radial wind velocity maxima were additionally supported by Nexrad radar data from Mobile and Eglin.
Note that the dark blue surge overlay was applied to the entire image, while in reality, ONLY the portion within "Maximum Surge" area would have actually received the highest levels of surge.
Note also that I used an expected 4 meter surge, while some news agencies are reporting surges up to 16 feet, or 2.8 feet higher. While an additional 2.8 feet will make a difference to some areas, analysis of the DEMs indicates that such a difference would not affect a significantly larger area. This part of the Florida coast rises in elevation more quickly than the landfall areas of Charley and Frances, and hopefully, was more resistant to surge damage.
It looks to me from this analysis, that the barrier islands and a limited number of non-barrier areas were subject to storm surge, however, the additional 2.8 feet, plus variations in high tide and wave heigth are/were not available and were not used for this analysis.
Thank you for your kind words. Ivan's now packing winds of 115 mph and headed toward Tuscaloosa and Birmingham - an area historically known as Tornado Alley. We are taking the hit from the eastern side of the storm right now. Hubby wants to grab his chain saw, start riding around, and clear roads. I've asked him to wait for the winds to subside. He's itching to get out there a help someone.
Does anybody know when the watches/warnings for Florida will be lifted? I'm not sure how that works.
"He's itching to get out there a help someone."
Lordy, tie the man down, for a little while anyway. Remind him you need him too. (I love the image of him riding around with his chain saw with that "help is on the way" look.)
Hurricane Warnings will continue as long as the windspeed remains above 75 MPH.
Tornado warnings are triggered either by ground spotter observation or by radar velocity data, which shows areas of adjacent wind shear typical of the windfields in a tornado.
This website:
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/iwdspg1.html
will allow you to keep up to date on the various warnings in effect for a given area. Just click on the state of interest and navigations should be intuitive from there.
I said with utmost sincerity "please don't go" and I think that's going to work. My step-son who spent the night is in the Natl. Guard. He's been called to report this morning. It's raining and extremely windy, anyone who goes out is going to be a mess in short order. And do you know what this boy's doing? He's ironing his uniform. LOL! Bless his heart.
Thanks very much!
We are fascinated by watching them as well. My teen daughter wants to be the future replacement for Stephanie Abrams! LOL
My girl has said all week it's not going to hit Louisiana, but Fl panhandle. She was close, maybe she's just got it in her.
I'm amazed how much everyone here knows about the weather. We're learning.
A Boil Water alert has been issued.
sw
Tell old boy that an experienced mountaineer, who has been lifted completely off the ground in winds as low as 65 miles per hour, who has 20+ years in construction experience, including setting trusses and rafters in 46 MPH winds (and at minus seven degrees Farenheit), says he needs to stay home until the winds drop below 60 MPH.
He can use his waiting time wisely by rounding up his hard hat, eye protection, shin guards and other body armor, all the water he can carry, and his comealongs, winch, chains, rope, a crowbar, hopefully six feet long or longer, and the thickest rubber soles shoes he owns. Remind him that live wires don't always arc, and that they can electrify wet trees when they are not arcing.
If he has a climbing harness and additional rope, have him make fast to the steering column before exiting the truck. A scanner and two way radio or other independent communications to your location will prove helpful.
Also, make sure that you have an amount of hard cash equal to the expected bail money on hand and in your possession (not his) before he leaves. In my experience, cops and other emergency response types are not known for their sense of humor.
We are in Ohio and our weather guy says it depends on if this thing sits over the Appalachians our situation. They expect drenching rains even up here if it sits and meanders, if it moves east, we should just get an average showery day.
"He's ironing his uniform. LOL! Bless his heart."
Thanks for the smile. And thanks to him for his service. We are all so grateful.
He's an amazing man. A State Trooper lives a couple of miles from us. The last big storm we had knocked down a tree blocking the trooper's drive. After my husband cut and moved that tree, the trooper followed him to other locations in peril. They worked together for several hours often joined by other LEO who just stood and watched. Hubby's two ton truck is always loaded with everything you listed with the exception of body armor. I think that 454 Casull under his arm makes him feel more secure. ;-) He's one of the good guys.
There are a lot of variables involved. The centroid of low pressure at the eye's center lifts the surface of the ocean in a large bulge. The surge effect attributable to this source reaches maxima when the eye's center makes landfall.
The tangential winds tend to drive water into the shore, piling it up. The surge effect attributable to this source reaches maxima when the winds are perpendicular to the shoreline.
Coastal geometery can funnel high water to a specific point, increasing the levels. The surge effect attributable to this source will reach maxima when the windspeed, direction and shoreline geometry combine to fullest effect.
You also have to factor in tides and wave heigth.
The following is cross posted from another thread here:
This is EARLY analysis, but it is a useful illustration of what happened and where:
http://users.in-motion.net/~jefft/tech/Mapping/afghanistan/4msurgetext.jpg
This is a complex image. First, a pair of one degree coverage 30 meter per pixel digital elevation models (DEMs) were merged, and displayed with normal sea levels and coastlines.
The sea level data was extracted, and saved in a temporary file.
Next, the same two DEMs were merged and displayed with an increase in sea level of 4 meters, or 13.2 feet. The temporary file with the normal sea level data was then overlaid onto the "Plus 4 meter
Merge", and then vector data including county borders and city locations added.
Finally, windfield data from
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/
was analyzed to generate the eye, eyewall, and 100 MPH boundary, and used to generate the maximum surge indicators to complete the composite image. The general location of eyewall landfall and radial
wind velocity maxima were additionally supported by Nexrad radar data from Mobile and Eglin.
Note that the dark blue surge overlay was applied to the entire image, while in reality, ONLY the portion within "Maximum Surge" area would have actually received the highest levels of surge.
Note also that I used an expected 4 meter surge, while some news agencies are reporting surges up to 16 feet, or 2.8 feet higher. While an additional 2.8 feet will make a difference to some areas, analysis of
the DEMs indicates that such a difference would not affect a significantly larger area. This part of the Florida coast rises in elevation more quickly than the landfall areas of Charley and Frances, and hopefully,
was more resistant to surge damage.
It looks to me from this analysis, that the barrier islands and a limited number of non-barrier areas were subject to storm surge, however, the additional 2.8 feet, plus variations in high tide and wave heigth
are/were not available and were not used for this analysis.
My Mom and Sister just called from Destin on their cells, they are all okay. They have no power, there are no reports coming out for their area. They said it was very bad, felt like the house was ready to blow away several times, lots of trees down. Can not tell about structural damage as it is not light enough. They are under curfew until 7 am central time, and heard it may be extended.They are asking me about reports coming in as they are not getting any.
Good for him.
I prefer a standard .44, because you can get 330 grain loads for it, if you're willing to pay for them.
The body armor reference, however, wasn't related to looters or other armed dangers, but towards flying debris. You'll have gusts and localized variations in windspeed for a good while after the wind drops below hurricane levels.
Scrap the "bail money" advice, having a State Cop along is much better insurance. If I was there, I'd be itching to give them a hand.
Thumbs up to a guy who can't wait to get out and help.
You raised a courageous daughter with a good head on her shoulders. Sorry to hear of her ordeal
I've been to Grand Cayman. It is a vulnerable paradise
Hurricane Jean strikes the Dominican Republic without warning
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/tropical_cyclones/tc04/ATL/11L.JEANNE/ssmi/vis1km/LATEST.jpg
From past experience, the media will only report anecdotal damage for most of today. By tonight, the emergency management types will have assimilated enough data to issue general overviews for mainland areas.
Tomorrow afternoon, you'll begin to see more specific data for mainland areas, and general overviews from barrier islands, with specifics from the barrier islands not expected for another 24 to 72 hours.
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