Posted on 09/15/2004 7:38:29 PM PDT by lainie
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 55
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan coming closer to the northern Gulf Coast...strong winds already moving onshore...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 88.1 west or about 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline.
Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the hurricane will reach the coast early on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.
People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly with little or no warning when the eye passes.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained winds of 54 mph with a gust to 83 mph...and Pensacola Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 51 mph with a gust to 68 mph.
The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was 933 mb...27.55 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center.
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.
Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.
Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama... the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 88.1 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking
this thread continuing from http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1216382/posts
As a parent of two teenage girls I can testify that teenagers can sleep through anything that happens before noon!!!
Winds in Tallassee at 72mph! Wow! We're getting hit with 20 and gusts up to 40. I'm praying for y'all.
You probably had such gusts at landfall last night when doppler showed tornados in Dothan.
Adam Housley on Fox reporting that a bridge over I-10 in Pensacola is down. Daylight is allowing more updates, not looking good.
Oh, and I'm quite high up on a hill, that is the highest point around these parts.
Now, he's projected to be over Kentucky on Sunday.
That's good news for us in that we won't get as much rain.
Bad news is, with the increased speed, Ivan's still gonna be at tropical storm strength when he gets here. The stronger and faster Ivan is, the more at risk we are for tornadoes.
AS IVAN MOVES NORTH OVER ALABAMA AND DIMINISHES...WARM...UNSTABLE...AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF OVER 60 MPH WILL ROTATE AROUND IVAN ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL CAUSE STRONG SHEAR AS THE UPPER WINDS WILL BE LESS. DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 70S ...LIFTED INDICES WILL DECREASE TO AROUND -5...AND CAPES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1500 OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF A BLUE RIDGE TO MACON TO VIENNA LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
I-10 or I-110?
Obviously I don't have access to TV right now.
Dew points over 70 and lifted index at -5 looks bad for twisters.
A CAPE of 1500 indicates enough energy to spawn tornadoes, but not as explosively as a CAPE of 2500 to 3000 or greater.
(CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy)
I heard the same report and I believe he said I-10 over a lake (?)..I was in the othe room and did not see, only heard.
P'cola News Journal just quit returning ping. If it stays down, best chance for early updates is down with it.
That's the I-10 bridge over Escambia Bay. Washed out at both ends. They have an 18 wheeler stuck on the bridge. No sign of the driver.
I'm pretty sure he said I-10. I have to run from computer to tv for that type of multi-tasking - I'll call it exercise today.
The homepage is up, but the forums are down. That'll slow reports by a little, but not as bad as total failure.
It'll be months before power is fully restored.
MONTHS.
I-10 crosses Escambia Bay but doesn't have anything overhead.
Closing I-10 in Pensacola at the bridges is nearly disasterous all by itself. Traffic jams with no where to go.
But this could be some new bridge construction connecting Escambia and Santa Rosa counties just east of Pensacola. Very bad news if that's the case.
My family had to evacuate a few days ago so I've been anxiously watching the storm to see if we have a house left when all is done.
I have interest in the Wilmer area... just outside of Mobile on the Al-Miss border. Thanks.
Thanks for your explanation!
I agree. For the first time in forever I watched CNN (Anderson Cooper, Miles O'Brien and Orelon) for a while last night and it's usually true - when the news is breaking and is the least political, CNN has the best coverage.
The extreme helicity values of 600-1200 M2/S2 will help updrafts make good use of those 1500 CAPE.
http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/0409161207.acus11.html
I can't imagine what an 18 wheeler would have been doing on the road this morning. Prayers for the driver. And thanks for the update.
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