Posted on 09/15/2004 7:38:29 PM PDT by lainie
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 55
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan coming closer to the northern Gulf Coast...strong winds already moving onshore...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 88.1 west or about 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline.
Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the hurricane will reach the coast early on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.
People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly with little or no warning when the eye passes.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained winds of 54 mph with a gust to 83 mph...and Pensacola Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 51 mph with a gust to 68 mph.
The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was 933 mb...27.55 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center.
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.
Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.
Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama... the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 88.1 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking
this thread continuing from http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1216382/posts
LOL!
My computer is in a different room than the TV also - but if I lean back in the chair I can see it without moving!!!
The situation with the truck sitting on the bridge is weird.
Rains and hurricane force winds STILL hitting Mobile. That's over 12 hours of rain and hurricane winds.
Thursday morning we are having light rain with wind gusts. How strong the wind is I don't know but I'm looking out my second floor wind and seeing trees that are 20 - 25 feet high shaking fairly well every couple of minutes. We aren't supposed to get the stronger winds until later on today. I was really surprised when I got up this morning that we aren't under a tornado watch yet because it really feels like tornado weather outside.
It looks like traffic could re-route to highway 90 to get around the Bay if I-10 is out of service.
P'cola is also served by I-10 from Mobile, highway 90 from Mobile, and 29/97 from the north.
Losing the I-10 bridge will hurt, but isn't a showstopper.
Dam. That is very bad news all the way around.
That bridge is essential to the area.
Oh my goodness. I will be praying for good news for you and your family.
pensacolanewsjournal.com has a pic of the bridge, doesn't look good.
My folks fled Bay Front Road to Tillman's Corner to ride out the storm and were easily able to make it back down to the Bay this morning. They said they didn't see all that much damage on the way home. Trees and power lines down, and C-Store canopies knocked over, but not nearly as bad as we thought it would be. It seems the most damage in Bama was on the Eastern Shore and Emerald Isle. Report from Gulf Shores appear to be devastating.
I was just wondering to myself what the helicity values were, but have too much going on here to dig them up.
Thanks.
Actually it was hard not to last night because the same planters were behind several reporters! :) The ones from CNN, TWC and MSNBC must have been at the same hotel because they all had the same shot. I didn't stay up long enough to watch one of those big planters blow over but while watching I kept thinking, they're starting to wobble, watch out guy, that thing looks heavy!
THANK YOU so much!!!
I'm looking at it. Almost certainly that is an east looking view. It looks almost like the span sections were floated/driven off the piers by the surge. That's actually good news if true, because it means the piers may be in good shape, not scoured and collapsed, both under the failed sections and also along the rest of the bridge. That will save a great deal of time on repairs.
BTW, you are going to see that image a LOT more times before this is all over.
Yes, it is. The hwy 90 bridges are not in full service yet (or so they weren't on my last visit this summer) and the traffic load is too much for hwy 90.
There have been accidents and hazmat incidents on the bridge that caused people to miss work because the re reouting and traffic involved would require an hour or more detour.
That bridge is essential. I just saw the pictures on the pensacolanewsjournal.com and what I said can't be printed on FR.
I just wish they could post some more pics. We just left the NAS area 2 months ago, still have a home and many friends in the area and we're concerned. I know they are busy, but I have no patience to speak of! :)
sw
Obviously the water is never normally that high.
The hwy 90 bridge parallels that just a couple miles up the river. If that bridge goes, there will be severe problems for all who commute. There are two alternatives and neither one good. One is to go up north to Cantonment and cross over or else take the Garcon Point Bridge to Gulf Breeze and then the other bridges back to Pensacola. Either was is nearly an hour detour without the etra traffic.
I haven't heard anything for Navarre or Gulf Breeze. You probably can't get to Gulf Breeze, and Navarre is so small nobody wants to talk about it. From the way things sound in P-cola and Panama City, I would imagine that Navarre has not fared well. I do remember a report yesterday before the sun even went down that the new pier on Navarre Beach was gone.
Yes, if the highway 90 bridge is also unservicable for any reason, it will severely impact commuters.
Aid will also be impaired, but 90 and 10 both cross well north of the ocean proper coming from Mobile, and there's a third chance for materiel coming from the east, the railroad bridge which runs immediately north of the I-10 bridge. Rail bridges are almost always more sturdily constructed than roadway bridges, but they have to carry heavier loads as well, so it's a double edged sword.
Commuting will be a priority, but first, there's going to have to be a massive influx of aid. On the bright side, structural damage to buildings, at least reported so far and only anecdotally, appears to be largely confined to roof sheathing and trusses/rafters. Not good news, per se, but better than seeing F5 type, clean foundation damage.
They're both open now. Problem would be the gridlock on Avalon Blvd the next access to I-10 after the Bay. Avalon Blvd also carries the Garzon Point bridge traffic and all the local stuff, too.
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