Posted on 09/15/2004 7:38:29 PM PDT by lainie
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 55
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan coming closer to the northern Gulf Coast...strong winds already moving onshore...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 88.1 west or about 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline.
Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the hurricane will reach the coast early on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.
People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly with little or no warning when the eye passes.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained winds of 54 mph with a gust to 83 mph...and Pensacola Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 51 mph with a gust to 68 mph.
The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was 933 mb...27.55 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center.
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.
Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.
Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama... the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 88.1 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking
this thread continuing from http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1216382/posts
thanks. The report was incredible, you should be a news person. And the Caymans sounds scary.
My home is about seven miles down Highway 30-A from Seagrove. Just spoke with a friend there and he said he had not been out to look around. I take it as a good omen that he's fine. No power but the phone's working. Under a curfew there. Will update when he calls again.
Has anyone heard anything about Dauphin Island?
Does anyone know how Ft. Walton Beach made out? My dad's brother, niece and a nephew live there? They live on Poulton Drive NW. Any info is appreciated.
I heard second-hand via a message board post regarding friends that live somewhere in Pensacola (no idea of exact location, sorry). They, their family, and a couple of friends rode the storm out in their house...awnings gone and one oak ripped out of the ground in their backyard, but thankfully no injuries or damage other than that. No mention of flooding.
Can't say I agree with all of the contents of their "hurricane emergency kit," though. They included the usuals--bleach, water, batteries, flashlights, candles--a .40-caliber SIG with extra clips (OK, *that* I agree with), copious quantities of beer and other booze, and a bag of weed. Not a real good combination.
}:-)4
Heard that a good bit of Highway 98 in Fort Walton is washed out. Wish we all knew more and could just move on from this nightmare hurricane. Aren't you 'so over' storms?
There was no word yet from Dauphin Island, a thin barrier island south of Mobile, Ala., where seven people insisted on staying behind, even though the island was expected to weather perhaps the most destructive face of the storm.
"We don't know what's out there," Riley said.
The National Guard was waiting until winds died down to 40 mph before making an initial fly-over of Dauphin Island and other places that appeared to shoulder the worst of the storm. In nearly Baldwin County, emergency management spokeswoman Colette Boehm said an initial search-and-rescue operation was about to begin
http://www.dailypress.com/news/sns-ivan,0,6283934.story?coll=dp-breaking-news
I knew Gulf Shores had gotten coastal flooding but had not realized that some also happened in Mobile. The slide show brings home the extent of the effects of this storm. Prayers to all in the area and kudos to those working around the clock to deal with it.
How much can one state take?
Ryan Graves looks at the flood waters from Hurricane Ivan covering highway 59 through Gulf Shores, Alabama Thursday, Sept. 16, 2004. ( AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
Thanks for the pictures. Wow, the look on that man's face just breaks my heart.
I hope Lamberts made it through the storm. Best place I've been to eat in a long time.
Have you seen the latest track? Right over my head!
With multiple tornado warnings in and around the Atlanta area, WSB-TV has gone wall-to-wall, and is streaming.
Live streams (some may be down at any given point):
WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP): http://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WJZD-FM Biloxi (WMP): http://www.wjzd.com/wjzd.asx
WNSP-FM Mobile (MP3): http://209.136.114.9:8000/listen.pls
WPMI-AM Mobile (WMP): http://mmslb.eonstreams.com/ccri_al_mobile_wntm_am.asf
WPMI-TV/DT Mobile/Pensacola (WMP): http://video.wpmi.com/viewer/content/special.php?Art_ID=36468&Format_ID=2&BitRate_ID=8&Contract_ID=16&Obj_ID=
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/8172/live/reflector:24024.ram
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham: http://nbc13.feedroom.com/iframeset.jsp?ord=85647
WSB-TV/DT Atlanta (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:20336.ram
Glad the tornado was not on the ground and you are OK. Warnings are now in North Georgia around Oconee County. This thing is so big. My mom is OK. She doesn't have electricity but has phone service and a portable radio. She is in great spirits so I feel better. Thanks for the report.
does this mean this could go back out to sea??? sure looks like it.
A television crew covers the flooded State Road 59 in Gulf Shores, Alabama September 16, 2004 after Hurricane Ivan came ashore in the city. The crew stands on debris washed onto the roadway. Hurricane Ivan slammed the U.S. Gulf coast on Thursday with furious winds and flooding, ripping roofs off homes and hotels, washing out bridges, downing power lines and spawning tornadoes that killed eight people.
Workers from the Alabama Gulf Coast Zoo rescue an asian fallow stag that escaped during Hurricane Ivan in Gulf Shores, Ala., Thursday, Sept. 16, 2004. Hurricane Ivan made landfall close to the town.
Nine alligators were on the loose in the Alabama town of Gulf Shores, after they escaped from a zoo in floodwaters caused by Hurricane Ivan
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