Posted on 09/15/2004 7:38:29 PM PDT by lainie
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 55
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan coming closer to the northern Gulf Coast...strong winds already moving onshore...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 88.1 west or about 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline.
Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the hurricane will reach the coast early on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.
People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly with little or no warning when the eye passes.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained winds of 54 mph with a gust to 83 mph...and Pensacola Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 51 mph with a gust to 68 mph.
The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was 933 mb...27.55 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center.
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.
Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.
Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama... the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 88.1 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking
this thread continuing from http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1216382/posts
So glad to hear your father is ok. My husband's uncle lives in mobile home in Slocomb, AL. They wouldn't leave and come to our house. Wanna know why? Miniature horses! I think they have 6 or 7 and they are part of their family. I believe DeFuniak's out of danger now, continued good wishes for your Dad.
Hey, you're either part of the solution or part of the precipitate, right?
I used to live down the beach from Navarre in the early 70's when there were hardly any homes there. An absolutely beutiful place. Dad told me it was hit hard during Opal.
Good gravy.
I'm sorry - but if I'm sick and tired of these bloody things, and I've only gotten minimum residuals from them, I can only imagine how horribly exhausted the folks in Florida are.
SHEESH.
Well, that part of living on Florida. They either learn to live with it or leave. Hurricanes cannot be stopped.
Thanks.
The bridge washing out was never even a consideration to me. The more I think about it the more damaging this is to the entire community.
The Tornado Watch has been shifted and extended, reaching northward through most of Georgia, and time=wise, running through 9P ET.
The picture posted earlier shows the truck. A new image at the paper's website has a better view. From what I can see, the cab is over the edge of a damaged section, but still attached to the trailer. The trailer has partially come apart as well. I don't have high hopes for the driver, based on what the picture shows.
I'd like to know who went out there to check on him.
Has anyone heard of damage or conditions in the little town of Summerdale AL? This is about 17 miles north of Gulf Shores. My company has a warehouse there for golf course chemicals and fertilizers. I wonder if it is still standing?
Haven't heard -- I'm watching WMBB-TV out of Panama City via ABC NewsNow, and they haven't mentioned it.
Glad to hear you talked to dad. Being mad is a good reaction, IMO.
I agree with you.
I've got family in Sarasota, they've been there since the early 70s.
Something else that occurs to me. I'm assuming that the photograph shows a section of the bridge on the west side of the full span, and that the methods of construction are the same across the full span. If so, there is likely to be additional damage to both directions beyond the hump east of the main channel where we can't see it, and where no-one has yet been able to report on. An earlier poster said there was damage at both ends. meaning that it will take weather good enough to permit aerial recon before the full scope is understood.
All major roads leading into Escambia County from Florida have suffered major damage causing a delay in getting 1,000 Army National Guardsmen and additional support help into the area. The I-10 bridge connecting Santa Rosa and Escambia and US 90 between the counties are closed because of storm damage.
"We are waiting for the bridges to reopen to bring everybody in." said Icilda Andres, with the Florida Army National Guard.
The eastbound extension of Bayfront Parkway, between Chase street and 14th avenue, has been washed away, said Pensacola Police Chief John Mathis. All four of Escambia County hospitals suffered major damage. Baptist Hospital emergency room was not operation as of 8 a.m., officials said.
The round-the-clock curfew was in effect until further notice. "All we are saying is for all residents to stay off the street," Larry Smith, Escambia Sheriff Chief Deputy, said.
"You can go outside, check your house, and do some maintenance, but stay off the street," Smith said.
http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/blogs/stormteam/
Yea, he spends so much time with his horses that he put a phone in the barn. He shored up the barn better than the house. :)
I dove the Caymans one trip. I wouldn't go back there until things get back to normal, and the reefs will likely be debris-cluttered due to Ivan for a couple of years, too: but it's still one of the great dive spots in the world. Though I didn't get there (it's an all-day trip from Cayman Brac, which I did dive), Bloody Bay Wall on Little Cayman was rated one of the top 10 diving sites in the world. Most Cayman wall drop-offs start at 60-80 feet; Bloody Bay Wall starts at 30 feet.
I didn't try to view the high-resolution mural, but if you've got time it might be fun.
Besides, the cost is much lower and the natives are friendly.
Isn't that funny? My dad call's his horses his kids.
Where's Slocomb? I looked in the atlas but the print is so dang small I can't even see it with my glasses! I hope they're OK.
Nothing at all unusual about phones in barns. There's computers in barns here in Iowa.
It's all about access to the outside world from the workplace.
The key is the establishment of hardened facilities for groups such as Red Cross, FEMA and NG to operate from, located in town. There must be a degree of confidence that the first reponders, as well, can function, therefore a hardened command center and deployment capability for the PD and FD. This has been a real instructive thing. I would imagine that far too few people in NO realize just how much they have dodged a bullet this time around. Just a couple degrees less of a turn to the north, and this might have been a far different event than it has been.
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