Hurricane Ivan -- Thursday 9/16 thread [Landfall!]

NWS/NHC, various | 9/16/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 55

Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan coming closer to the northern Gulf Coast...strong winds already moving onshore...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.

At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 88.1 west or about 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline.

Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the hurricane will reach the coast early on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.

People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly with little or no warning when the eye passes.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained winds of 54 mph with a gust to 83 mph...and Pensacola Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 51 mph with a gust to 68 mph.

The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was 933 mb...27.55 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama... the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.

Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 88.1 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Pasch

$$

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Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

this thread continuing from http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1216382/posts

[Ptarmigan]

DixieChick2, I am sorry to hear that. I hope you will be okay. It is a bad situation. I know that first hand.

[BurbankKarl]

Mobile PD EOC saying the phone lines are down.

[lainie]

A friend of mine who's had weather training through the military looked at everything last weekend and pronounced the landfall Gulfport, Mississippi last Sunday. Looks like he's going to be off by about 33 miles, but that's not bad at all. Beats some people I saw on TV last weekend, that's for sure.

[lainie]

Pensacola PD had lost their two-way ability, according to a drowned rat reporter a while ago.. forget which channel.

[SlowBoat407]

I've always suspected that there is a drag effect on the first part of the storm to come ashore, causing it to rotate CCW around that point and start in a new direction. Crude, but preliminary thoughts.

[snapperjk]

...Incredible! And the worst is yet to come. Playing musical chairs at the Civic Center not good.

[Hunble]

Gulfport, Mississippi last Sunday. Looks like he's going to be off by about 33 miles

Well you know, the military always does things better....

LOL

P.S. If he was within 500 miles, he did better than the NHC!

[BurbankKarl]

That is a Motorola Trunked System....

should have stuck with straight two way, IMHO.

[Conservababe]

I am getting a little fed up hearing of people going to shelters, especially in Louisiana, and being told to bring their own food and water, and being turned away.

And what is this farce in New Orleans with the mayor wandering around in a fog and the little lady governor giving interviews praising the birth of her grandchild instead of addressing the issue of this crisis.

Louisiana used to have the best civil defense in the nation to deal with hurricanes. It was a co-ordinated effort of all state workers, the guard and ham radio operators. And no, the Red Cross never showed up until it was over, to have their pictures taken.

Folks, I'm talking here of folks being transported out of rural or urban areas in the path of a hurricane long before the last minute of the meterologists estimates. Sometimes they were transported even in freight cars, if necessary.

And when they arrived at the shelters, they were supplied with food, even if it was just cold cheese sandwiches. And they had water, medicines and diapers for their children. And the ham radio operators were dispatched to the shelters to relay information. And the guard was called out to transport civil servants, like my mom who was in charge of a shelter, and others to their jobs and provide security.

Where has this all gone, I ask? Is it now the job of government to say "we advise you to hit the road" and there is nothing else we can do"?

I'm ranting and I am angry.

[Eagle Eye]

Hurricanes are dangerous to homes as well....btw, CNN, Hurricanes MAKE people homeless!

[steve86]

Are you sure your color is adjusted right? I don't see any red-haired woman.

[BurbankKarl]

I agree, we had a discussion earlier about the Superdome. They should have asked restaurants to bring all the food that is going to spoil and drop it off.

The Red Cross refused to set up inside the city, because it was below sea level. Now if they were given space within the Super Dome from the beginning, I bet they would have set up.

I dont care if there was $80,000 in damage last time it was opened up....you are talking 20,000 people.....it is worth the price!

[lainie]

He sent me an instant message yesterday that read, "People should pay me for this!" I wonder how much ol' Max Mayfield makes. heh

That's mean. sorry.

[Hunble]

Not drag, but a pushing effect.

Remember, a hurricane like this is pushing a massive amount of air out of it's way.

Push a rug and see how it bunches up. Stand back and look at where the rug has bunched up.

With only a single image, could you predict the direction that the rug moved?

[lainie]

That story came up earlier on FNC. Can you believe people rioted in the emergency shelter because they didn't like the accommodations and all they had to eat was hot dogs? That's amazing. I remember that.. it was during Georges right?

[rdl6989]

I'm listening to WPMI 710 AM in Mobile. They just reported that in Gulf Shores the roof has been torn off of the Fire Station. Here's a link.
http://www.wntm.com/main.html

[snapperjk]

Sorry. That's bad government at it's best.

Thankful here in FL that we have Jeb Bush. Jeb now dubbed the 'Hurricane Governor'. Anyone living in FL and thinking voting Kerry, needs their brain cells rearranged.

[BurbankKarl]

And you know what the bottom line is too....

The people that need it the most dont donate to the campaigns.

[exhaustedmomma]

Yeah. I read some people in NO couldn't get out of town or to a shelter because they didn't have transportation. pathetic.

[lainie]

The IRLP is still running [ahem] and NHC Miami estimates at 1 a.m. CDT, Ivan's center to be very near the Alabama coastline.