Posted on 09/15/2004 7:38:29 PM PDT by lainie
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 55
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan coming closer to the northern Gulf Coast...strong winds already moving onshore...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 88.1 west or about 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline.
Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the hurricane will reach the coast early on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.
People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly with little or no warning when the eye passes.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained winds of 54 mph with a gust to 83 mph...and Pensacola Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 51 mph with a gust to 68 mph.
The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was 933 mb...27.55 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center.
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.
Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.
Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama... the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 88.1 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
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this thread continuing from http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1216382/posts
Thank God she got away. Wow, Onyx, you've been through it these past few weeks. ((((((((Onyx))))))))
Damit, why was I that far off?
Next time, I will do better.
Show her your post to me.
Surely she will go along with you?
You have endured more than most folks.
She must be ready to leave too?
Start tracking "Jean." :)
Thank God your daughter's coming home. I hope you have a WONDERFUL reunion. I'm toasting my glass of red wine to you and her right now! God bless you and your family.
Good night.
As a avid scuba diver, I have always wanted to go diving in the Cayman Islands. From what I have read tonight (from multiple sources), I will never visit that island.
Cozumel Mexico, here I come next February.
Nite to you too. I've had enough for one day also.
Be safe, you're already brave.
And show her your comment to me.
Ohio here you come!
South Carolina at this moment.....
Oh, my good Lord, onyx. I had no idea your daughter was in such a situation. I'm adding them to my prayers. She must be terrified, and I'm sure you are, too.
If you have coordinates for official landfall, I can fine that distance up for you.
Also if I can get any anecdotal surge data, I can plot normal versus surge coastlines using Digital Elevation Models.
Why were you "so far off"? Well, we know about all there is to know about the physical properties of water, heat transfer, phase conditions, there's a pot of of water, about to boil, now pinpoint the location of the first bubble.
;-)
Too many variables, even for an array of processors. You know that. Earlier I was wondering about reactive forces, in this case and eye center shift to the east in response to increased wind resistance over land. In addition to the meteorological variables, you'd have to have both a DEM and a one meter plot of every physical projection, and your have to run the sim in realtime, inputting every change in the projections as the hurricane takes them down to maintain accuracy just to begin to approximate the effect.
You had it close enough, as close as we are likely to get it. Do you know where Snow predicted landfall?
"46.77 miles between Gulf Breeze and Gulf Shores."
Interesting. What software are you using?
Hey Magnolia.
Yes, she's had it.
She'll return when law and order is restored.
She has her property management business and
she needs to do all the insurance filings, but
for the time being, it is SAFETY first... hers
her children's.
I posted a couple of photos of them on my page,
taken about a month ago in happier times.
I need to sleep, but I'm HAPPY I saw your ping.
I think MS might be in for some rain?
Maybe Hunble can tell us?
For a while this afternoon, I was worried about
my 121 year old house when the hurricane was
supposed to hit around the mouth of the MS.
I'm certain we have FReepers who are in Ivan;s path.
Prayers for them.
Nite all.
And yes, the old "gut instinct" is still a valuable scientific instrument.
Hi Onyx,
I've been reading the Cayman message boards and wondering if your daughter would leave.
Evidently they're trying to evacuate all expats, and are moving Caymanians to the Brac and Little Cayman to stay with family, friends, or sometimes even strangers.
From what I've read, people are just "roaming" the streets because they have no place to go...not enough food and water, and very unsanitary conditions due to the sewage problem.
I'm glad your daughter's leaving.
I've been puzzled by the looting reports. The island was almost crime free when we lived there. It's hard to imagine that sort of thing.
Anyway, hope the flight gets out today.
P.S. How old are your grandkids???
Can you point me to a post describing your methods?
Last I heard, the public can get free time on ASCI Red if a need is demonstrated, but that was before 9/11. Odds are you'd have to go through a longer process for what you'd need to do.
Eglin's SRM is more useful than Mobile, going to hunt up some others and compare. Will post back if I find anything useful.
Still looking for any surge data, even SWAGs if anyone has them.
Uh, I was using the Mark-1 eyeball and some very poor satellite images.
As I keep telling people tonight, I was looking for the "wall" that is located around 50 miles in front of the hurricane's path. Locate the "wall" and you know where it will travel.
By profession, I am a Software Engineer. However, something like this would be impossible to teach a computer how to perform.
Those folks in the Cayman's need to know how to make backyard evaporation stills. A pit, some greenery, some sunshine, some clear visqueen, and a little bit of hose or tubing or ingenuity to get the condensation to funnel into a container can generate enough water to keep a person alive indefinitely, especially in humid post hurricane conditions.
Once these 3D images were animated, I soon recognized something rather unusual. In the direction of travel, there is a "wall" located about 50 miles ahead of of the eye.
Locate the "wall" and connect a line from the center of the hurricane eye and the center of this "wall". This line will point to where the hurricane will be located in the next 6 hours.
This is so subtle, that it is almost impossible to explain. However, once you have learned how to recognize the "wall", it almost becomes second nature.
The wall you are defining is solely a function of top heigth? Is there a corresponding minima or maxima in precip, or radial velocities? I think it could be done if you can ingest GOES or 88D data, but I am not a code guy.
Some software you need to have:
1. Search "Global Mapper" and d/l the free demo.
2. http://edcftp.cr.usgs.gov/pub/data/srtm/SRTM30/
There is a lot of useful data at this site, but to find all of it, you'll have to climb and descend the file tree. I know my way around and you can Freepmail me for specific questions.
3. Search "3DEM" or "3 DEM" for another useful program.
I use Global mapper for general overviews and advance prep, with the 90 meter per pixel SRTM DEM's, then once landfall becomes defined withing a degree or two, use the 30 meter per pixel SRTM DEM's with the 3DEM program to alter sea level. I'll capture a screenshot at normal sea level, plus 3 meters, plus 6 meters, and plus 9 meters, then superimpose the normals and the plusses using some simple photoshop manipulations.
Can't do that yet, because I don't have any surge data yet, but I'll post them when I get them.
You can also download political data, roads, cities, drainage systems, state and county boundaries in vector format too. Global Mapper will automatically line them up, and displays every filetype I've ever come across. 3DEM only works with DEMs and raster image overlays, but does a better job representing sea level changes.
Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 56
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 16, 2004
the eye of Ivan crossed the coast around 0700z just west of Gulf
Shores Alabama as a category three hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson
hurricane scale. Best estimate of the initial intensity now is 100
knots and because Ivan is already inland...further weakening is
anticipated. However...since Ivan is so large and intense...it is
expected to bring hurricane force winds well inland...up to about
150 miles along its track.
The hurricane is moving toward the north or 010 degrees at 12 knots.
This general track is expected during the next day or two.
Thereafter....Ivan is expected to be blocked by a developing high
pressure system. Therefore...the official forecast shows Ivan
stalling near the southern Appalachians and slowly dissipating in
that area. Obviously this could be a major flood event over
portions of the southeastern U.S. In the coming days.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 16/0900z 30.9n 87.7w 100 kt
12hr VT 16/1800z 32.5n 87.2w 65 kt...inland
24hr VT 17/0600z 34.7n 86.2w 35 kt...inland
36hr VT 17/1800z 36.0n 85.0w 30 kt...inland
48hr VT 18/0600z 37.5n 83.0w 25 kt...inland
72hr VT 19/0600z 37.5n 83.0w 20 kt...inland
96hr VT 20/0600z 36.5n 83.0w 20 kt...dissipating
$$
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