If you have coordinates for official landfall, I can fine that distance up for you.
Also if I can get any anecdotal surge data, I can plot normal versus surge coastlines using Digital Elevation Models.
Why were you "so far off"? Well, we know about all there is to know about the physical properties of water, heat transfer, phase conditions, there's a pot of of water, about to boil, now pinpoint the location of the first bubble.
;-)
Too many variables, even for an array of processors. You know that. Earlier I was wondering about reactive forces, in this case and eye center shift to the east in response to increased wind resistance over land. In addition to the meteorological variables, you'd have to have both a DEM and a one meter plot of every physical projection, and your have to run the sim in realtime, inputting every change in the projections as the hurricane takes them down to maintain accuracy just to begin to approximate the effect.
You had it close enough, as close as we are likely to get it. Do you know where Snow predicted landfall?
And yes, the old "gut instinct" is still a valuable scientific instrument.