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Hurricane Ivan -- Thursday 9/16 thread [Landfall!]
NWS/NHC, various | 9/16/2004

Posted on 09/15/2004 7:38:29 PM PDT by lainie

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 55

Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan coming closer to the northern Gulf Coast...strong winds already moving onshore...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.

At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 88.1 west or about 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline.

Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the hurricane will reach the coast early on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.

People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly with little or no warning when the eye passes.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained winds of 54 mph with a gust to 83 mph...and Pensacola Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 51 mph with a gust to 68 mph.

The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was 933 mb...27.55 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama... the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.

Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 88.1 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Pasch

$$




Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

this thread continuing from http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1216382/posts


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Georgia; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi; US: Tennessee; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: hurricane; hurricaneivan; ivan
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To: MinuteGal

Leni, check in with us every now and then and let us know you are OK.


141 posted on 09/15/2004 9:22:11 PM PDT by hoosiermama (Bush Democrats = Zell's Angels)
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To: Letitring

"It's a Station in Mobile, Alabama."

Thanks for this link. Listening now.



142 posted on 09/15/2004 9:22:43 PM PDT by Cedar
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To: Hunble

Well if thats the case, he should be in Mobile watching Anderson Cooper's back(side)


143 posted on 09/15/2004 9:22:56 PM PDT by BurbankKarl
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To: Hunble

I totally agree.


144 posted on 09/15/2004 9:23:31 PM PDT by eternity (From here to...)
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To: lainie; ken5050

Over the years, storm surge flooding was the major cause of hurricane deaths, but has accounted for only about a half dozen hurricane deaths from 1970 through 2002 thanks to better forecasts and evacuations.

But, surge is still a potential killer and is the primary reason coastal areas are evacuated.

Howling winds around a hurricane's eye create storm surge by piling water up. In the deep ocean, this dome of water sinks and harmlessly flows away. But as a storm nears land, the rising sea floor blocks the water's escape and it comes ashore as deadly storm surge. An intense hurricane can send a dome of water more than 18 feet deep ashore as the storm hits land.


145 posted on 09/15/2004 9:24:07 PM PDT by TheLion
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To: Cedar

You are so very welcome. I didn't know if it would interest anyone, but it's helped me tonight, so thought I'd go for it and post it. :)


146 posted on 09/15/2004 9:24:33 PM PDT by Letitring
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To: BenLurkin

Captain! Crazy Ivan, starboard side!!!!


147 posted on 09/15/2004 9:24:55 PM PDT by Choose Ye This Day ("We showed weakness, and weak people are beaten."--Putin / "A more sensitive war on terror." --Kerry)
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To: All

I have been listening here again, this guy is doing a decent job: http://www.hurricanecity.com/live.ram

My husband is playing xbox live...so I have to watch it on my puter.


148 posted on 09/15/2004 9:25:12 PM PDT by carinafox5 (A word to the wise ain't necessary. It's the stupid ones who need the advice!)
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To: Letitring

Hey thanks from me too. Listening intently.


149 posted on 09/15/2004 9:25:44 PM PDT by eternity (From here to...)
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To: alancarp

He did say that Mobile would be better off if Ivan came right up the bay or just east.


150 posted on 09/15/2004 9:25:55 PM PDT by TheLion
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To: lainie

I live in Huntsville, Alabama. One of our local weathermen said on the 10:00 p.m. news that we will be under a tornado watch by Thursday afternoon at the latest and power outages are will be the norm. We are expected to get at least 6 inches of rain here by Saturday.

I work in the medical profession in downtown Huntsville. Our office was told today that we will be closed Thursday and Friday.

I went out and bought bottled water. Already have oil lamps and flashlights. Looks like my dog will have to go on the patio as I doubt very seriously we will be going on walks once the sh*t hits the fan.

Have also heard that hotels between Birmingham and Huntsville are booked solid.


151 posted on 09/15/2004 9:26:09 PM PDT by proudofthesouth
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To: ken5050

We have a friend in a construction related field in Miami. He says the concrete used in those high rises is not up to standards [payoffs, bribes of inspectors] and also says if a big storm comes through Miami he doesn't know if those high rises will stand the storm.


152 posted on 09/15/2004 9:26:14 PM PDT by hoosierpearl (No Better Friend, No Worse Enemy, than a U.S. Marine.)
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To: Hunble

did you need someone to upload something for you to be able to post it/link to it etc?


153 posted on 09/15/2004 9:26:45 PM PDT by carinafox5 (A word to the wise ain't necessary. It's the stupid ones who need the advice!)
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To: eternity
The edge of the eye is about to hit the 30 degree parallel -- landfall is at 30.21/30.22 at the mouth of Mobile Bay. A little more than an hour - 20 miles - to first shore; 50 miles to Mobile.

It's gonna ram right up the middle of the bay.

154 posted on 09/15/2004 9:27:43 PM PDT by alancarp (When does it cease to be "Freedom of the Press" and become outright SEDITION?)
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To: Letitring
WPMI Mobile TV

Just showed some horrible footage of the Panama City Tornado Damage. Also showing shots around Mobile.

155 posted on 09/15/2004 9:28:22 PM PDT by commish (Freedom Tastes Sweetest to Those Who Have Fought to Preserve It)
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To: alancarp
Just checking GOES Imagery - Floater Infrared Ch. 4 Loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html and eye has passed a little to the east of the last forecast point off shore. Next forecast point is at very middle top of Mobile Bay, but eye seems to be going to past to east of that. Looks like eye is going to go up east side of Mobile Bay, barely.
156 posted on 09/15/2004 9:28:55 PM PDT by snapperjk (If you are a terror to many, then beware of many.)
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To: commish

Gulf Shores, AL Fire Station has roof blown off


157 posted on 09/15/2004 9:29:11 PM PDT by BurbankKarl
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To: Aggie Mama

highrise like the beach club on fort morgan road will survive fine.

the lower floors will get hammered and the landscaping too.

the big problem is rebuilding the beach.


158 posted on 09/15/2004 9:29:22 PM PDT by wardaddy
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To: commish

Updated stream list:

WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP): http://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WJZD-FM Biloxi (WMP): http://www.wjzd.com/wjzd.asx
WNSP-FM Mobile (MP3): http://209.136.114.9:8000/listen.pls
WPMI-AM Mobile (WMP): http://mmslb.eonstreams.com/ccri_al_mobile_wntm_am.asf
WPMI-TV/DT Mobile/Pensacola (WMP): http://video.wpmi.com/viewer/content/special.php?Art_ID=36468&Format_ID=2&BitRate_ID=8&Contract_ID=16&Obj_ID=
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/8172/live/reflector:24024.ram


159 posted on 09/15/2004 9:29:41 PM PDT by mhking
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To: snapperjk

Yeah, I was going to write that I think Daphne is the target - East side of the bay.


160 posted on 09/15/2004 9:30:21 PM PDT by alancarp (When does it cease to be "Freedom of the Press" and become outright SEDITION?)
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