Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

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Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[jeffo]

Just heard that CBS is sending Dan Rather to NO to do live reports outside during the storm...

Rather will no doubt find a memo from 1969 outlining then Lt. George W. Bush's involvement with Hurricane Camille, secretly coercing the hurricane to hit the Gulf Coast. The memo will mention the New Orleans Superdome and will be in Comic Sans font, but CBS will stick by it 100%.

[txhurl]

My name's Lisa... and I promise I will flake out over the Atlantic and go north.

[Hatteras]

Might I suggest that you pull down those wind chimes so they don't kill somebody later on.

Trust me, you won't need them to tell you when it's getting windy.

[dawn53]

I pinged you to look at Howlin's photo, but it looks like it's been taken off. There must be 3 or 4 systems lined up behind Ivan.

My kid's desperately trying to complete his homework and studying for tomorrow, so he can go to the beach later this afternoon.

Word is...surf's up!

[Dog Gone]

That came from the Navy, but I first found it on this site.

[No Blue States]

maybe Due North now? What a monster sat loop.

Click Goes east visible floater loop:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsdsol/RSOMAIN.HTML

[independentmind]

I live in Charlottesville, which should be fairly safe overall. I live on the side of a fairly steep incline, though, that overlooks a tributary of the Rivanna. I can't begin to guess what would happen if we got upwards of 10 or 20 inches of rain in a day or so.

Apparently, in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, Charlottesville experienced a "great flood." I'm not sure I know what that means, and I don't want to find out.

I've lived on flat land most of my life( midwest and NJ), so this is all new to me.

[jpsb]

Get out NOW!!!!

[Iowa Granny]

.

[Orlando]

I have a question, since New Orleans is @ 9+ feet under sea level.
What would happen if the superdome area gets flooded ?
How would the people get out being a dome ?

What about power back-up ?

[AntiGuv]

Check out the awesome hugeness of Hugo, the second most destructive hurricane to strike the United States:

Hurricane force winds as far away as Charlotte!

[LikeLight]

The real time radar is NOT showing due north. It's got a distinct NW motion still, as of just minutes ago. I don't have a dog in this fight, but I'm watching for the turn and it's not happening.

[Flux Capacitor]

----Rather will no doubt find a memo from 1969 outlining then Lt. George W. Bush's involvement with Hurricane Camille, secretly coercing the hurricane to hit the Gulf Coast.----

A project no doubt undertaken while he was AWOL from the Alabama, Mississippi, Iowa, Nebraska, Vermont, and Alaska National Guards; the National Aeronautics and Space Administration; Scotland Yard; the Bailey Savings and Loan; and the Starfleet Reserves of the United Federation of Planets.

-Dan

[tutstar]

Frances threw off some fierce T-storms in its outer bands.

Jacksonville had over 70 tornado warnings from Sat-Mon and I think we had several on Tues. as well. Lots of damaged roofs here but not even close to the damage and trauma experienced by those you near landfall.

[Lakeside]

Ha! THanks for the chuckle.

But, lest everyone takes me wrong, I don't expect some newsie standing on the lake levee giving a play by play. A simple telephone call from a bunker would do....(grin)

[GOP_1900AD]

Wobble.... Also note the overall slow westward advance of the westernmost edges of the storm....

[1066AD]

What freq are you monitoring ?

[mhking]

I don't expect some newsie standing on the lake levee giving a play by play.

I do -- when Charlie came into Charlotte, there was a reporter in a van next to the harbor on a cell phone!

When the eye came over, all you could hear is "It's so quiet! I can see sunlight!"

After that, we didn't hear from him again....

[Howlin]

The dang thing was updated.....or it's dark there one!

I found it on this link last night:

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm9/ivanirsatellite_large.html?from=home

[Wu]

I'm next door in Orange County.