Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

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Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[NonValueAdded]

and none of them point to a Florida strike!

Not yet but the models only carry things out so far ... The BAM model puts Ivan back in the gulf around the time that Jeanne is coming up the east coast of Florida. Will Ivan pull Jeanne across Florida or will Jeanne pull Ivan across? Do the models carry things out that far? We are not out of the woods yet!

In any event, most of Florida will feel Ivan's outflow and many of us have lost the watertight integrity of our roofs. Those blue tarps will hold out only so long. Frances threw off some fierce T-storms in its outer bands.

[Dan from Michigan]

I never thought I'd say thank God for Michigan weather.

All we get here out of the ordinary is occasional ice storms, noreasters, and a torando once in awhile.

[lainie]

Is that a joke or real? (can't really tell given the recent Ratherisms)

[Moose4]

Hey independentmind, what part of VA do you live in? I grew up near Amherst, about 30 miles south of where Camille did her dirty work.

}:-)4

[Flux Capacitor]

----Just heard that CBS is sending Dan Rather to NO to do live reports outside during the storm...----

Rather continues to insist that there is no storm.

-Dan

[txhurl]

Linda Vester now saying there WAS a northern turn now.

[tutstar]

This from mhking's post 359

Still checking for other links; I've got WWL-TV running at http://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv

[BurbankKarl]

ocean springs, ms
20 mph winds (up from 17 15 mins ago)

[GOP_1900AD]

This camera can also be run in streaming mode. I was watching it for the past several minutes. I saw a tug go by - downstream, toward the storm! [I assume the W Hotel shown is on the East Bank?] It looked like the lowest clouds (known in the lingo of the aviation community as scud) were racing by. It looked like the River is either flowing upstream or there are some pretty good wind waves going in that direction. It would be interesting for someone who has more familiarity than me with this camera's location to run it in streaming mode (as long as it holds out) and provide ongoing updates / commentary.

[Howlin]

I am positive I have asked you this before, but since I am old I have forgotten: did you once post a picture of a dock on a beautiful lake in the snow or sleet?

[Lakeside]

Thanks for the info. I've got family in South Alabama, friends in Vancleve, MS, and a whole bunch of family and friends in N.O. My N.O. family has gotten out of Dodge.

[LikeLight]

Very distinct NW motion on current real time loop on radar. More so than all morning. NOT going E at all at this time.

[dawn53]

Howlin, that's an awesome picture.

I'm pinging NautiNurse about our boards that we still have up at our windows.

NautiNurse,
Hey, look at Howlin's post.

Break out the Christmas lights, baby!!!

Looks like those boards might be up until then!

My hubby's having his hip replaced next week, so if we take them down, our 16 year old is going to have to learn how to put them up. So they'll probably stay in place on the big windows at least for awhile.

[dfwgator]

Dan just announced the storm is expected to reach landfall in Idaho.

[ken5050]

actually, wishful thinking on the part of Viacom...

[AntiGuv]

Yup, Big Ivan, Little Jeanne, Baby Karl, and Baby Lisa are on the way!

[Flux Capacitor]

I sure don't see that on any of the radars. Still heading for N.O.

-Dan

[tutstar]

That wouldn't surprise me one bit! This year is definitely unrelenting.

[mrsmel]

I'm under a mile from the beach in Biloxi,so far my windchimes aren't even moving.

[TheLion]

Starting to get rough along the coast.