Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

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Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[independentmind]

The Weather Channel had someone reporting from New Orleans this morning before I went to work. Perhaps he was wise, and has relocated.

[Howlin]

It's a damn parade:

[Alas Babylon!]

Yes, a bit windy. I'm not expecting more than 75MPH gusts, maybe 50MPH steady. I've got the whole place cleaned up, all the kid's toys and patio stuff is in the barn. My mother lives in a double wide next door to us, so she'll be spending the next few nights in our sturdy house. We're up on a hill, but the only thing I'm worried about is tornados. I've just field tested the generator, all looks good.

[yawningotter]

I remember an early season tropical storm many years ago that dumped large amounts of rain on Lake Martin while it was at full pool. I don't remember how many floodgates they had to open, but it may have been 13 out of 20. Lake Martin is 487.7 right now, according to lakemartin.com,(full pool is 490) so there is not much room for heavy rains before they have to start opening floodgates. I remember another storm that hit during a drought that filled up Lake Martin when it was down about 5-6 feet, and that was a minimal hurricane. As for Lake Jordan, that puddle is too small for any flood control.

[mhking]

Updated live stream list:

WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP): http://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WJZD-FM Biloxi (WMP): http://www.wjzd.com/wjzd.asx
WNSP-FM Mobile (MP3): http://209.136.114.9:8000/listen.pls
WPMI-AM Mobile (WMP): http://mmslb.eonstreams.com/ccri_al_mobile_wntm_am.asf
WPMI-TV/DT Mobile/Pensacola (WMP): http://video.wpmi.com/viewer/content/special.php?Art_ID=36468&Format_ID=2&BitRate_ID=8&Contract_ID=16&Obj_ID=
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/8172/live/reflector:24024.ram

[Hatteras]

Sorry, I was delayed getting back to you. Some people actually want us to get some work done around here. The nerve....

Anyhow, yes. That was from Buffett's song, 'Biloxi'. One of my favorites.

[Flux Capacitor]

Visible Loop

[Gabz]

It seems all I have done all summer long is pray it would stop raining here. We've got a creek as the north border of the property and in summer it is generally not more than a trickle.....not this year.

The bank is higher on our side, but with so much rain this year it has flooded my fields I don't know how many times. I lost my entire garden - it turned into a swamp and what I didn't lose because of water I lost to the deer.

[lainie]

He was a guy reporting for ABC News.. looked to be on loan to TWC.

[bwteim]

Thanks for the weather update. Good luck riding it out. Lots of tall pine trees out in your part of the state - your generator will be needed.

[Howlin]

Where are you getting those???

[Severa]

Yeah sitting in NAS Oceana base housing. Wouldn't be so bad if they'd clean the gutters every once in a while...

[NautiNurse]

All of my neighbor's docks are under water, and we are still one hour from high tide at the mouth of the Tampa Bay (high tide=1355). I still have a good 1.5 feet left before my dock is submerged. Ivan has very far reaching effects.

[lainie]

Mobile AM radio says "you won't believe what it's gonna sound like tonight around midnight."

[BearCub]

The Weather Channel has been saying that for, what, five days now. I don't get it. Most people don't get it.

There are other factors in play, including the jet stream and high/low pressure systems that 'steer' the hurricane. As it moves further north it will start getting 'pushed' back to the east a little.

[lainie]

I used to live there.. over off Glen Falls Ct. Mid 80's though so I assume they've been changed around since.

[BurbankKarl]

Hearing all kinds of bounces on the hurricane net...hearing grand cayman traffic....2000 homeless on Grand Cayman wandering aimlessly...."looks like bombed out area"

other operator contacting stations along Gulf of Mexico......the skip signal is in!

[TheLion]

I don' like the visions that photo conjurs up! Too freaky.

An expert from NASA was saying that when El Nino is present (it is like a southern jet stream), it clips these apart and thus we don't get but few hurricanes. Now there is nothing to keep them from forming!

[ken5050]

Just heard that CBS is sending Dan Rather to NO to do live reports outside during the storm...

[lainie]

New Orleans Causeway cam still operational