Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

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Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[Theo]

Pretty nasty thunderstorm right now, hm? (I'm in Chesapeake)

[lainie]

http://www.nola.com/rivercam/

[Quilla]

Prayers for you too, commish!

[GOP_1900AD]

I was refering to the overall shape of the coastline from the LA - MS state line to somewhere out toward Morgan City. The coast looks like a bird's foot on a map.

[BurbankKarl]

W5WA reporting in from Vancleve MS

Barometric pressure 29.80
winds ??? wind direction 070 degree

seas 2 feet above normal, no severe wave action

[Alas Babylon!]

Good luck. Keep your airmen safe. Make the Lt's do the dangerous work!

[Truth666]

For the past hour Ivan didn't move !

[LA Woman3]

I have heard reports of people going back home since the traffic situation is such a nightmare.

[Quilla]

Wow, I'm surprised to see any activity on the Mississippi this morning. Maybe they're just heading for the Riverwalk. /tacky humor

[Eagle Eye]

http://pensacolanewsjournal.com


THE VERY LATEST: Updated @ 11:43 a.m.
• Landfall predicted at 1 a.m. in Mobile Bay
• Latest hurricane center dispatch
• Pensacola Bay Bridge still open
• Shelters
• Latest

[Types_with_Fist]

Okay. I see what you mean.

[Lakeside]

No! No one reporting from N.O. Someone posted earlier how oddly silent the news media was considering the storm is still moving that way. It's driving me nuts.

[shield]

Thanks for the ping...pong

[gopwinsin04]

Im beginning to think the NOLA weathermen are clueless..

[Quilla]

Before I left the house this morning I saw one Fox reporter in New Orleans. I can't recall who he was - maybe William Logginess (sp) - they were reporting from a deserted Bourbon Street.

[Types_with_Fist]

No one reporting from N.O.

No, they aren't. The problem is that if the storm hits there they can only "report" from a helicopter. I haven't noticed that Geraldo is "In the Eye of the Storm" on this one either. Maybe he's smarter than I gave him credit for.

[BurbankKarl]

29.78 Barometric Pressure and falling
gusts to 17mph


K5BQJ
Ocean Springs, MS

[gopwinsin04]

Im not surprised, the nearest hotels appear to be some cheap ones in Houston.

[independentmind]

The Weather Channel had someone reporting from New Orleans this morning before I went to work. Perhaps he was wise, and has relocated.

[No Blue States]

" believe the shape of the coastline is amplifying the storm surge. Not only the curvature from Big Bend toward the West, but also, the "bird's foot" of LA is acting as a dam."

Thats the same thing ive been thinking. Looking at the loops puts a pit in my stomach for New Orleans. Where is all that water going to go that Ivan is whipping around toward lake Pontchartrain?