Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

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Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[Alas Babylon!]

Which lake do you live by, Lakeside? I'm in Tallassee, 10 miles due South of Martin dam.

[cogitator]

One out of a thousand of those waves will be about twice the significant wave height

Rogue wave hitting tanker bow in the Agulhas Current.

[gopwinsin04]

[TheLion]

At least TWC doesn't have political hacks screaming at each other. I put it on sometimes and forget about it.

[lainie]

Mississippi coast cam

[GOP_1900AD]

I believe the shape of the coastline is amplifying the storm surge. Not only the curvature from Big Bend toward the West, but also, the "bird's foot" of LA is acting as a dam.

[gopwinsin04]

There were discussions last night of NOLA being 20 ft underwater for 3 weeks with the fire ants, etc. --a huge disaster area like Galveston in 1908!

[Types_with_Fist]

the "bird's foot" of LA is acting as a dam.

LOL. I believe you are referring to Plaquimines Parish, that "land" that juts out from the state? I know it looks big on a map, but it's essentially a two-lane road with water on both sides.

[Lakeside]

I'm on Weiss Lake on the Coosa R. in N.E. Alabama close to the Georgia border. Was that a run-on sentence or what?

[commish]

Hold down the fort good people! I just got called by the base command post, time to go tape doors in the "crystal palace" and move everything blowable indoors. Should be back in a few hours.

My prayers to all in harms way.

[Gabz]

New umbrella, huh? did you happen to also wash your car yesterday? LOL!!!!!!!!!!

It has been raining here since shortly after Jax got on the bus this morning (7:30). And it's coming down pretty bloody hard right now. I'm not looking forward to meeting the bus at 4 if this doesn't let up.

I'm sure your hubby is just fine.

[mrsmel]

Welp, my husband convinced me that this isn't the one I need to leave for,so I'm staying. It appears that a lot of people aren't leaving,according to the mayor. He's not leaving either.

[gopwinsin04]

To their credit, NOLA and Gulf officials seem to be doing a good job to tell people to get out..if they would just listen!

[No Blue States]

Its going to be a longggggg fall. October has a secondary smaller hurricane peak.

we need more cold fronts to push them out to the Atlantic.

[lainie]

that includes you. Good luck to you!

[numberonepal]

Does anyone have a person actually reporting in NOLA? I haven't seen any.

[Quilla]

I'm in Dothan, 100 miles north of Panama City. Our schools and most businesses are closing at noon today and will remain closed at least through tomorrow. I have a small manufacturing plant and we too are closing at noon. This way these folks here can get home, be with their children, and complete final preparations. Weather-wise, we just had a few sprinkles and 12 mph winds.

[GOP_1900AD]

My prayers go out to *you!* Heads up out there, OK?

[Gabz]

GOOD GRIEF!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[bwteim]

It's supposed to get more than a little windy your way today and tomorrow, right?