Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

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Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[LikeLight]

And this sucker is still coming north and west . . . is it unusual to have waves on Lakeshore Drive? Like it happens sometimes, or it happens never?

[Types_with_Fist]

Lakeshore Drive in New Orleans

Lakeshore in New Orleans is right along Lake Ponchatrain. This is where this levy we've heard about is... the one where the water is higher than the city below.

[Gabz]

Thanks for all the links!!!!!!

[Orlando]

I hope everybody in Mobile is gone(got out) , this will be a bad, bad storm.

[commish]

WAves on Lake Shore drive are not uncommon in storms, it is when the water-level starts topping lakeshore that people need to really worry.

[augustus713]

It's current path has it going straight at Gulfport/Pass Christian

[Capt.YankeeMike]

ref: your post #460...are you speaking of Montgomery, AL???? water levels rising THERE??? Montgomery is what?? 100 miles inland??? YIKES please clarify....familiar with the area...lived in Panama City Fla for 7 years...
getting worried about my old home in PCB.
The Capt.

[LA Woman3]

Go to www.nola.com
It has several web cams around New Orleans....

[Francis Joseph]

Does anyone know if there is a internet link to a camera on Lakeshore Dr? My in-laws live a few blocks from there.

This thing has been making a beeline for New Orleans since it passed Cuba. It seems to be plowing right through whatever is supposed to turn it east. Time is definitely running out for this turn to occur.

[Lakeside]

Sorry about that, commish. I guess it can't be helped. If you think it's bad now just wait until this thing stalls out right over us for 2-3 days. It's going to be flooding from here southward for quite a while if predictions are correct. Bummer. I sure am glad I no longer live in New Orleans, though. Prayers for all those in the path...

[eastforker]

It sure looks like it is headed for NO looking at the loop.

[GOP_1900AD]

The nightly cool off is past, the sun is hitting, energy is on the increase, oh, and the blob of very warm water he's gone right over....

[gopwinsin04]

Community shelter spot will be announced for New Orleans within the hour..looks like the Superdome!

Police will be pulling bums and vagrants off the streets after 2PM and depositing them into the shelter.

[Dog Gone]

But not a webcam of the New Orleans coast, probably because New Orleans isn't on the coast.

[commish]

MOntgomery, AL. The two large lakes North of the city have opened thier Dams to full flow -- that is why the River is rising here. The point I was making is all that water is now flowing south to Mobile Bay, which is filling up from the storm Surge.

Mobile is the one under the Gun, they have tons of water headed thier way from all the lakes north of them, and are facing 10-20 ft strom surge from Ivan, the combination could be disasterous for Mobile.

[gopwinsin04]

Community shelter spot will be announced for New Orleans within the hour..looks like the Superdome!

Police will be pulling bums and vagrants off the streets after 2PM and depositing them into the shelter.

[Types_with_Fist]

Time is definitely running out for this turn to occur.

Yes. This has me worried as well. Radar seems to be showing it west of Mobile now. If it doesn't turn soon -- SOON -- it'll brush across Plaquimines at the river's mouth and across Lake Ponchatrain. This is worst case for New Orleans.

[Lakeside]

The rivers are rising in Montgomery due to the emptying of the lakes to its north (in preparation for flooding rains). It's not from the storm...yet.

[Gabz]

Thank you for your concern Sam Cree. My immediate concern at this time is for those in and around the path of ivan right now.

I do not drive when it is raining, and I have seen so much flooding in this area this summer that I have no intentions of going anywhere!!!

but as I said, this rain has nothing to do with any of the tropical situations currently going on - those I am not looking forward to - even though we won't even begin to feel effects of IVAN until sometime over the weekend.

[gueroloco]

Thanks for the link! Saw the same presser, and was struck by the "please don't bring your big screen TV's to the shelter" remark. WTF? LOL!