Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

---

Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[tutstar]

And thus the reason Floridians have major anxiety. Can't trust a hurricane.

[tutstar]

Just got this in an email...

[NCjim]

As a kid growing up in Asheville, NC, I used to listen to WWL at night on headphones with my crystal radio, back when dirt was new... *g

[tutstar]

A friend in Jax has 5 holes in her roof from a tree. There is a hurricane clause in the insurance which increases the deductible from $500 to $4000. I had no idea. That is a lot of dough for most the folks I know to cough up at once.

[tutstar]

The main page for satellite services says images updated every half hour....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

[tutstar]

the link I just posted

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

shows movement NE

I hadn't refreshed it since I first got online...

[tutstar]

But we're riding out Jeanne, if she comes our way. No choice!

Same here, why can't these things time themselves to come on pay day or just after? LOL

[tutstar]

I grew up in West Texas, my dad would tell me things about the weather (not sure if all old wives tales) like if the birds couldn't fly up, the air pressure had changed and a tornado was coming. If a storm had just passed and turned to start coming towards you-tornado. There are others but I can't think of them right now.
Back then I guess that people just shared their observations and if they were similar or the same it was assumed to be reliable. We didn't sit inside when there was a storm nearby we were outside watching it until it wasn't safe to do so. I've always watched the weather.

I remember seeing hurricane damage on tv news and tellin myself that I'd never live anywhere that a hurricane could hit. LOL
I love Florida!

[No Blue States]

Dawn, the 1st thing I noticed after coffee and loading the loop is Ivan is the weakest looking Ive seen him in a long time on the IR. Im no expert but its obvious and great news. In the mornings he has tended to not be as strong.
But it seems like the east side of Jamaica since Ivan looked this weak in comparison to the monster 5 and high 4 lately. He could strengthen some, but what a surprise.

[tutstar]

Warning! Do Not through darts at your monitor! They could ricochet and cause you bodily harm!!

[No Blue States]

That said, he is still a 4 according to NHC.

[tutstar]

The gray headed man?

[tutstar]

Some watch it for hours!

Guilty! It's also hilarious to watch the little ones dancing during the music for local on the 8's!LOL

[Lucy Lake]

It has been raining in the northern U.S. Rockies for several days. We've been in drought conditions for six years.

[MeneMeneTekelUpharsin]

Bump for a later read.

[Aggie Mama]

I had a roommate in college that would watch TWC for the music right before she went to bed. Kind of like a lullaby.

[Gabz]

Man we have some nightowls here don't we? I wake up and the new thread has almost 200 posts. LOL

You're right. I couldn't hack it any more last night and had to crash.

Woke up this morning to my cable being out - hubby said that was the last straw we are going satellite ASAP.

So now I'm going to be relying on my fellow FReepers to know what is going on.

[libtoken]

Hurricane Ivan Intermediate Advisory Number 52a


Statement as of 7:00 am CDT on September 15, 2004



...Large and dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues its approach to the
northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to
Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and
Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane
conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within
the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to
west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City
Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to
Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical
storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the
next 24 hours.

At 7 am CDT...1200z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered
near latitude 26.7 north...longitude 87.9 west or about 180
miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph. A turn to the
north is expected today. On this track...the core of Ivan will be
near the coast within the warning area early Thursday morning.

Ivan continues as as a extremely dangerous category four hurricane
on the Saffir/Simpson scale hurricane scale...with maximum sustained
winds near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in
intensity are expected during the next 24 hours...but Ivan is
expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category
three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the
Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those
experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category
higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall...
hurricane force winds could to spread inland up to 100 miles near
the path of the center.

Ivan is a large hurricane...with hurricane force winds extending
outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force
winds extending outward up to 260 miles.

The latest minimum central pressure measured by a reconnaissance
plane was 939 mb...27.73 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced
where onshore flow occurs west of the center.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely
elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Isolated tornados are possible later today as Hurricane Ivan
approaches the coast.

Repeating the 7 am CDT position...26.7 N... 87.9 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140
mph. Minimum central pressure... 939 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
10 am CDT.

Forecaster Franklin

[Gabz]

Man o man o man.............

[Truth666]

That could be the last Times Picayune ever pubished.
Will it require the destruction of NO for people to understand that we entered the global superstorm era ? I hope not!

HURRICANES 2004 - unprecedented

September 14, 2004 - not just another historic day, when Mexico beated the US in this race (Jeanne was born a couple days too late) : country threatened by TWO cat. 5 hurricanes - Ivan, Javier (unprecedented)
... but because it marks the entry in a new era - the global superstorm
Previous historic days :
Japan and S. Korea Ground Flights as Typhoon Songda (7th, unprecedented) Approaches
Hurricane Alex turns unprecedented (strongest Category 3 Hurricane north from 38° N) - and other records Alex set
First ever Hurricane Recorded in South Atlantic off Brazil