Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

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Weather Underground/Tropical
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[Quilla]

My father retired after 30 years from the USAF in 1967 while we were stationed at Maxwell. (IIRC, we lived at 123 Inner Circle.) We lived in some of the most beautiful places - London twice, Naples, and just outside of DC when he worked at the Pentagon. I'm pleased we stayed in the South, there's no finer place or better people anywhere!

[numberonepal]

BOUY UPDATE
Station 42040 - MOBILE SOUTH 64 nm South of Dauphin Island, AL
Wind Direction (WDIR):	NE ( 50 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD):	42.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST):	54.4 kts
Wave Height (WVHT):	34.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD):	17 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):	29.41 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY):	-0.16 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Station 42039 - PENSACOLA - 115NM East Southeast of Pensacola, FL
Wind Direction (WDIR):	E ( 100 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD):	35.0 kts
Wind Gust (GST):	48.6 kts
Wave Height (WVHT):	33.1 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD):	14 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):	29.59 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY):	-0.01 in ( Steady )

[kinghorse]

Camille's hurricane force wind range was 55 miles. This on is double that. My experience tells me the larger the less devastating. Wind that baby up in a tight ball like Camille and Andrew - watch out. Big ole sloppy ones like Allen end up being over-hyped for what they do when they land. Just saying.

[LA Woman3]

WWL (New Orleans radio station) mentioned the Superdome is for "special needs" persons-those who need electricity to save their life.

[Joe 6-pack]

"Could you imagine being stuck in the Superdome for a few days with all of New Orleans' homeless?"

A lot of New Orleans shoed up here in Lafayette last night / this morning.

Hopefully the homeless number doesn't rise too sharply in the coming days...

[gopwinsin04]

The Superdome bathrooms may be the cleanest smelling place in the building! (provided the janitors dont run out of cleaning supplies)

[lainie]

check out the > 50% shadings

[independentmind]

Sorry about that. I meant Ivan.

[Rebelbase]

Ivan eye now visible from NOAA NOLA radar.

[jpsb]

;)

[commish]

check out the > 50% shadings

Hopefully we are not seeing the nightmare scenario for NOLA coming to fruition.

I am eagerly awaiting the 1 PM advisory/discussion. Not just for direction, but also for central pressure/wind speed.

Just have a bad feeling about this one. It would seem like now would be the perfect time for an intermediate advisory NHC!

[gopwinsin04]

Correct, the Superdome is at present only for 'special needs' folks, and a further announcement is coming within the hour..

[Gabz]

I can practically see my house - and not in a shade I chose for paint.

[gopwinsin04]

No way NOLA withstands a direct hit without at least 1,000 casulties.

[jpsb]

Carla

[numberonepal]

Not good is right. The water has only gotten over the road there once with Georges. Now that's not to say that there isn't 50 ft less "beach" there now than when I was a kid (hence the seawall), but Pops sounded nervous. Now that's not good because the man is demonstrably made of granite.

[Types_with_Fist]

No way NOLA withstands a direct hit without at least 1,000 casulties.

Even if many get out, that's a conservative number.

[independentmind]

Which is why I made my earlier mistake. Camille is still frequently talked about around where I live and I don't have to go very far to get to the area that was devastated.

This part of the Blue Ridge Mountains, for geological reasons, is particularly susceptible to debris flow--or what most people call landslides. Enough rain can literally remove the face of the mountains.

We had a good soaking last week. The worst case would be to be hit with Ivan from the south and/or west and with Jeanne from the south and/or east.

[commish]

Never thought I would pray for an MS/Ala/FLA Hit, but at the moment I would rather see the BIloxi/Mobile/Pensacola take the brunt. I am seriously praying for NOLA.

This is almost like seeing a child across the street running into traffic, and you are powerless to stop the oncoming truck.

[missyme]

I have some family in Fort Walton Beach FL, just spoke with them they say the wind is starting to blow, the water in Destin is now going over the Destin bridge and everything is closed with the exception of the markets which will be closing at noon.....