Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

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Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[commish]

Yep.. this may make the Geneva/Pea River floods look like childs play. My apologies if I have the town name wrong..I think it was Geneva.

[Marak]

That chart is days old. It still shows Ivan below Cuba. It is worthless for forecasting what might happen now.

[vidbizz]

Is that Jimmy Buffet?

[Quilla]

Elba, I believe.

[commish]

YES!.. Elba, the name escaped me there for a minute. Senior Moment (can you have those at 43????)

[Capt.YankeeMike]

wow. never thought of that, thanks for the clarification...us yankees are praying for your safety...
The Capt.

[Types_with_Fist]

Radar I'm watching

[txhurl]

NOLA mayor denies ordering 10K body bags.

(They already have 100K body bags.)

[gopwinsin04]

33-36 ft waves on the leading edge of the storm!

[Mr. Jeeves]

If you think you are having a bad day...check out this incredible story about four guys who survived Hurricane Allen in an inflatable raft:

Givens Life Raft: Client Testimonial #1

[Gabz]

Draining lakes???? holey moley.

The last blizzard I dealt with I wound up with a dislocated shoulder( among other things), last 'cane just lost phone, cable and a part of my barn roof - but with what has been going on this season - I would take shovelling in a heart beat.

good luck to you. this thing is going to be visiting you long before and much stronger than it will be when it finally gets up here my way.

[gopwinsin04]

Someone was forecasting 60k casulties if NOLA gets a direct hit, Im still not sure about the wisdom of putting everyone down at the Superdome..

[Quilla]

With all that's going on, senior moments are expected, we all have 'em regardless of age. (You're a youngin' by the way.) Did you grow up in Montgomery?

[independentmind]

I've read some horror stories about Camille in the mountains.

Right now, Camille is forecasted to stall to the south and west of Virginia. Pray that it stays that way.

[Dog Gone]

Check out what's in store...

[Wu]

Say what?

[alancarp]

There is a weather buoy ($42040) in the Gulf of Mexico that is roughly in the direct path of Ivan. Latest report:

Wind Speed: 42.7 kts
Wind Gust: 54.4 kts
Wave Height: 34.8 ft!
Wave Period: 17 seconds (wow!)

The buoy is 64 nautical miles South of Dauphin Island. Near as I can tell, it's still over 100 miles away from the cener of Ivan.

[GOP_1900AD]

That was my semi educated guess. I hope I was wrong.

[Dog Gone]

Camille?

[numberonepal]

Pop's just left the house for higher ground in Tillman's Corner, but says water is over the seawall and the breakers are starting to lap at Bay Front Rd. Sh*t Fire!