Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

Crude Oil Rises as Hurricane Ivan Cuts Gulf of Mexico Output

Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose for a third day as Hurricane Ivan prompted Gulf of Mexico producers including Royal Dutch/Shell Group to evacuate platforms in the biggest disruption of the region's output in at least two years.

About 1 million barrels a day of Gulf production has been shut, equal to 5 percent of U.S. consumption, the government's Minerals Management Service said. U.S. crude oil inventories may fall as the storm prevents tankers from reaching ports along the Gulf that receive more than half the country's oil imports.

Crude oil for October delivery rose as much as 40 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $44.79 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil has risen 4.3 percent this week.

``Inventories could draw down because some ships are probably being held offshore due to the storm and production has been shut down in the Gulf,'' said Kurt Barrow, an energy consultant at Purvin & Gertz Inc in Singapore...

If Ivan makes landfall in Louisiana, refineries will be shut for several days, said Randy Simpson, vice-president for supply and trading at New West Petroleum Inc. in Sacramento, California. .

``It's not so much the wind that affects the refineries as the flooding,'' he said. ``The refineries could be down for a day or two more'' if they flood, he said...

Lili's Legacy

Hurricane Lili followed a similar path into the Gulf from Sept. 30 to Oct. 18, 2002, and producers lost 9.9 million barrels of oil output from Gulf platforms during the shutdowns the storm caused. Lili was a Category 4 storm before weakening as it approached the coastline.

Ivan would need to shift farther west to replicate Lili's track, according to Claire Souch, a spokeswoman for storm modeler Risk Management Solutions Inc., which estimated the losses from Lili at $300 million to $400 million.

The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, the biggest U.S. oil import terminal, stopped offloading tankers Monday.

The reduction in output and imports comes as U.S. inventories are falling. The Energy Department reported last week that U.S. crude oil supplies declined 1.4 million barrels to 285.7 million in the week ended Sept. 3, the sixth straight weekly drop. Supplies probably fell by 1.5 million barrels last week, according to the median of estimates by 13 analysts in a Bloomberg survey before the department's report later today.

``We've got production shut, we've got refineries shutting and this is the time of year when we need to be building inventories,'' New West's Simpson said...

(Excerpted)

To contact the reporter on this story:
Sri Jegarajah in Singapore at sjegarajah@bloomberg.net; Gavin Evans in Wellington, New Zealand
at gavinevans@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Tony Jordan tjordan3@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: September 15, 2004 00:41 EDT

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