Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

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Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[ArmyBratproud]

man...he is just taking his time to shore.

Its like he is sitting out there like a predator.

[Hunble]

Remember, hurricanes have always been female!

Ivan should have been called Irene, but even the weather was forced to become politically correct.

Why are hurricanes female? Piss-off your wife, and ask me that same question the next day.

[mississippi red-neck]

11:40 pm Starting to get some pretty good puffs maybe between 50 to 60 mph here in Lucedale,MS. Lost a few tree limbs. Going to be a looooong night & morning.

Got about 60Ft sycamore tree about 15 ft northeast from the house and the wind is from the NE. My, My.

[Eagle Eye]

http://pensacolanewsjournal.com/hurricane/mainbar.shtml

UPDATED 11:42 p.m. WEDNESDAY

Dauphin Island likely target; landfall predicted for 2 a.m.

Pensacola News Journal

[4Godsoloved..Hegave]

Thanks again for the news....sad as it is. Glad to be away and yet feeling deprived of knowing what is happening where we live and work.
Ping me with any other news that is affecting Bay county if you can.

[ArmyBratproud]

2AM Update for Ivan

Eye seems to be currently centered over the area of Gulf Shores, Alabama.

Gulf Shores emergency units currently have 20 to 40 possible minutes to get out and check on needed calls....before seeking cover from the back eyewall.

Wind speed gusts to east of Eyewall...130mph.
Pensacola taking major storm surge. High Damaging Winds.
Debris is major concern.

Power outages through out much of the Southern half of Alabama.

[ArmyBratproud]

Ivan Update.
02:50 Thursday 9/16/04

Ivan took shore...as eye wall was over Gulf Shores, Alabama, Ivan was reported by news groups as being just a few miles per hour under Cat 4. High level Cat 3.

Ivan is expected to sweep across Alabama to the northeast.

Flooding expected for much of Alabama in low lying areas.
Flooding predicted for Western and Northern Georgia.
Worries of Flooding and Mud Slides for Western North Carolina.

CNN has reported hearing that a hospital in Pensacola,Florida was hit by a Tornado.

Their reporter at Pensacola was going to try and get confirmation. Eyewall is running over Pensacola region.

Reports of damage in Mobile, Gulf Shores, Pensacola, Fort Walton Beach. Major Power outages.

Tornados reported in Montgomery, Alabama area. (to the southwest)

Counties between Montgomery and Birmingham starting to see more of the signs of Tropical Storm bands from outer edge of Ivan.

WALA reports that Gov. Riley has Alabama National Guard at ready.

Mobile seeing signs of the back rotation.

Flooding in New Orleans. Lake Pontchartrain flooding over banks. Some flooding is reported to have reached streets.
No word if it is a levy situation.

[hawkk]

Thank you for the ping. Fell asleep before I saw it but am catching up. Doesn't look too well down there. God bless all.

[cajungirl]

Just woke up, still beautiful in BR. Are yall sure this wasn't a hurricane hoax? After preparing for the worst, it didn't come. I am pleased this AM.

[Hatteras]

Tryin' To Reason with Hurricane Season?....

[Letitring]

It's getting a little sporty in Meridian, Ms.

Many communities have lost power. We have winds at 60 with gusts to 80. Lots of rain.

Many downed trees and that's causing power outages.

So far I have power and phone service.

Just wanted to report in, while I can.

[Romulus]

Everything's fine here. It was a little scary Tuesday morning, but by late afternoon it became clear we'd be fine. A bit blustery last night, but not a drop of rain. Lost my power early this morning, but I expect everything to beck in order shortly.

Thanks to Our Lady of Prompt Succor, who's as always on the job for us.

[bwteim]

"I'm in Tallassee, 10 miles due South of Martin dam."

Now that Ivan has passed, how did you all fare in Tallassee? Using the generator?

[ArmyBratproud]

Hope everybody has made it through OK.

I just talked to my dad. He was in Birmingham, Alabama earlier today....he said it was pretty bad.
So I know all you guys down near the coast line had a rough one.


Prayers and well wishes from the Lone Star State.

[Alas Babylon!]

WE fared very well, all things considered. The power was on all day, during the brunt of the storm. About 5:00 am we had a tornado just overhead? Doppler rader put it right by my home but moving away. We had a 72 MPH gust at that time but that turned out to be the highest for the whole storm.

The power went out at 6:50 PM, long after the storm passed, and came back on about 10 minutes ago. The phones aren't working yet.

I was just setting down to a good book on the American Revolution when the lights came back on, so naturally I'm back to FReeping!

[bwteim]

That's great news for you and your family.

[Truth666]

Check the current status, in the animation that started this thread :country threatened by TWO cat. 5 hurricanes - Ivan, Javier (unprecedented)
There are more unprecedent things visible right now :
- the first time that a new born hurricane (hours old) manages to survive the highest mountains in the Caribbean (Dominican Republic)
- the depression that took the shortest time ever to turn into a hurricane (Karl, eastern Atlantic)

[mississippi red-neck]

Made it through okay . No damage to speak. Lots of tree limbs to cleanup. Power back own yesterday evening.

Been trying to clean up some today and check on neighbors and trying to get the supplies I do not need to those that are less fortunate .

Prayers of thanksgivings is order of the day. MRN.