Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

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Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[Hunble]

As I said, this method has never been published.

I could use photo-shop and draw lines to show exactly what I am looking at. However, I have no idea how to post that graphic on FR, since I do not have a website.

This was discovered about 15 years ago, when I was exploring methods to convert GOES satellite images into 3D. By assigning specific IR temperatures to altitudes, it was possible to create a synthetic 3D image.

Once these 3D images were animated, a rather curious "wall" was discovered to always be leading the hurricane.

Locate the "wall" and you will know exactly where it will move.

[TruBluKentuckian]

Okay... I found the Mobile radar... and it shows the same thing New Orleans does.

I tend to think it's an actual area of dry air. It could be attenuation but for it to show up in the same spot from 2 different angles is pretty telling.

[mrsmel]

Yep...I should've added,that they said that no one was injured. I wonder who all's there,just some staff,or patients,or what?

[BurbankKarl]

Mobile Fire and PD have been told to secure, stop responding to calls.

[Types_with_Fist]

So does is Ron Reagan a dork?

He's one of them I think...:-)

Guys! The Landfall thread is OVER HERE!

[commish]

Eye looks to be rewrapping as it pulls north of the dry pocket. Good convection now around the Right 2/3.

[BurbankKarl]

Mobile AL EOC says Hurricane Force Winds expected within the hour. They have tornado warnings on the west side of the bay and flood warnings on the east side.

[Rushmore Rocks]

My elderly aunt and uncle live in Gulf Breeze. Just got off the phone with him. They had their house boarded up and went to stay with my cousin in NW P'Cola this morning. My aunt is wheel chair bound and cannot travel for any distance....thus their decision to stay locally. My cousin has a new brick home with a "safe room"...........sure hope it stays that way.
And I hope they have a home to return to, but it looks a bit doubtful now.

We get blizzards here where we live. I grew up in East Texas and West Louisiana and have been through some 'canes. I'll take a blizzard anyday. I actually rather enjoy the blizzards. Put on a pot of stew or gumbo, grab a good book, haul in the firewood, bring in the Husky, and settle in.

But, hurricanes scare me to death. Prayers to all in Ivan's path.

[montanus]

Pensacola coliseum is right on the bay, less than 100 feet from the water.

It's more than 100 feet... I'd say 250 yards at least.... but it can't be more than ten foot above the top of the sea wall.

[stlnative]

PENSACOLA CIVIC CENTER (red star)

[NonValueAdded]

Reference mark to Hunble's Theory!

[kinghorse]

Not good but light years better than Grand Cayman. The CEO of Cable and Wireless beseeched the US to intervene militarily NOW. They are talking about no lights, no nothing and hungry dogs.

[commish]

You are correct..For some reason I was thinking it was on Bayfront... it is over on 98 by Damon's and Sammy's. Still way to close to the water for being a shelter.

[Icthus]

Local news. One of the tornados touched down on Lance Street in Parker, near Tyndall Federal Credit Union. They report 70 or so homes damaged. Another touched down on Thomas Drive. Damaged the bridge at Capt. Anderson's and did structural damage to Hamilton's. Local news is reporting a trailer park in Marianna lost 16 trailers in a tornado there within the past hour. Power outage on most of the beach and Parker since 6:00 pm or so.

[NautiNurse]

Our local met pointed out the dry air in the SW quad. He's had lots of experience with hurricanes this season.

[kinghorse]

The Bayfront structure is a community center of some sort. Maybe a theater? I've balloon fished for kings off the boardwalk behind it. It's barely 3 feet above sea level.

[BurbankKarl]

I heard a report today that Grand Cayman had 2000 homeless....no shelters available, and no hope. I thought the UK would airlift stuff in....dont they own it?

[NonValueAdded]

Pray that they had the sense to evacuate then pray for a weakening to Cat 2.

[AmericanMade1776]

I am sure Palladin is on the phone now, to find out..where his grandkids are.

[kinghorse]

http://caymannetnews.com/2004/09/738/letter.shtml