Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

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Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[GOP_1900AD]

Yep. Less circular and less stable. In a few hours this will all be history for the coast. Then it will be the folks further north, having to deal with all the rain.

[Uncle Sham]

Long time since we met in Montgomery! Hope all goes OK. How are the conditions outside where you are?

[Letitring]

So does that mean it has shifted to the East?

[condi2008]

Will that loop automatically refresh through the evening? We've friends in Navarre, just east of Pensacola, who are riding it out.....

[commish]

Not bad yet, light rain 20 MPH winds.

[stlnative]

Are you out there, tonight?

[GOP_1900AD]

It is still at about 88 W Longitude. It has been at 88 +/- a few degrees for most of the PM. Lots of wobble and lots of interactions with the landmass. It will weaken over time now.

[No Blue States]

Thanks for the insight.

This too shall pass?

[Types_with_Fist]

Will that loop automatically refresh through the evening?

I've been watching the site you are talking about for two days now and, yes, it is constant. I don't think you have to refresh yourself but I've been doing it anyway.

[stlnative]

TWC just said it is 5 hours from landfall...

[Conservababe]

OMG...I just saw Ron Reagan doing an report on the hurricane in Pensacola, Fla on MSNBC. When did they hire this dweep?

[kinghorse]

This shows the water vapor and the steering. Wish I had seen this earlier in the storm's progression.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&isingle=mult_big&itype=wv

Prayers out to everyone in Pensacola Beach, Gulf Shores and Mobile. Pensacola Beach is one of the greatest American beaches. Fished the old pier several days sunup to sunset. Never set foot on the new pier. I hope to still get the chance. Maybe the hurricane will die down right before it hits. It's been weaker at night so the timing is favorable.

[Letitring]

Thank you so much.

[No Blue States]

"So does that mean it has shifted to the East?"

It looks that way to many, but how often Ivan faked us out with a wobble since Jamaica? It looks good for NO, but as someone else said it could get erratic by the coast.

[Letitring]

What's a dweep?

[alancarp]

IIRC, a Boll Weevil plague (of sorts) destroyed a crop of whatever-the-heck-they were growing down there some time ago. As a result, the farmers opted to diversify, and that paid off so well for them that they decided to honor the pest that forced 'em to do something else.

[Conservababe]

Ringy, a dweep is a dork, geek, nurd....you know. LOL

[Letitring]

It looks like it's ran into something it doesn't like. Right? I mean it's not as fierce looking as it once was, is it?

[Vigilantcitizen]

Seven Fla counties under tornado warnings.

4 in the panhandle east of Panama city.

3 just west of Gainsville.

[mrsmel]

WLOX is saying something about it drawing in drier air.