Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

---

Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[commish]

HUge hole opening in the SW quadrant of the eye. Looks like he is definately starting to feel the effects of land interaction. it may turn out that Ivan's slow speed is a blessing in disguise. Will drop lots of rain, but could weaken him substantially. Hope hope.

[AmericanMade1776]

I did too, so I turned the channel.

[Letitring]

Oh, like that, okay. lol. I'm dense tonight. Tropical fever or something.:)

[No Blue States]

"TWC just said it is 5 hours from landfall..."

Local news just said 4 or 5 hrs also.

Thats a long time so close to the coast.
But the land effect should help weaken it.
Maybe cat 3 at landfall like they suggested?

[GOP_1900AD]

In the last image of that loop, the eye was ragged and getting much smaller, that is the good news. The not so good (not really bad) news is that the track was back to N or even just W of north. OK, credit to the NHS here, they may have nailed it with their MS-AL state line landfall. What I think is happening, as expressed earlier by others here, is that it bounces along the land mass. But now it will be trapped between LA and AL and that's all she wrote. Prayers to all, especially Comish' kin. Consolation if any is this could have been a lot worse. It's still plenty bad. As someone else wrote a few back this too shall pass.

[Letitring]

YES! Peace and calm in the storm! Keep praying. :)

[FreeReign]

...lots of interactions with the landmass

Yes the latest IR shows drier air now circulating in.

[lainie]

Thread for Thursday 9/16 http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1217357/posts

AM, I misspelled Hurrican. dangit, can you fix so it's searchable?

[commish]

WLOX is saying something about it drawing in drier air.

If you look at the current radar, there is a huge hole just SW of the eye -- a large pocket of dry air just of the edge of LA.

[Aquamarine]

Will that loop automatically refresh through the evening?

I think so. Have been watching it all night and it's stayed current. Just drop this the window and open a new one for FreeRepublic. Then you can raise it and look at it off and on while your viewing this thread.

[AmericanMade1776]

CNN is showing CATTY kelly.

[stlnative]

has anyone heard from cajungirl?

[Hunble]

After over 20 years of studying satellite images as meteorologist, I have found a subtle but important aspect to look for.

I never published it, and to my knowledge, nobody else has published an article about this method in any weather related scientific journal.

Locating detailed B/W images of hurricane Ivan today has been frustrating, but I was finally able to locate a website that was barely acceptable.

This is so subtle, that it is hard to describe. Extending approximately 50 miles from the eye of the hurricane, you will find a flattening aspect. Instead of a perfect circles extending around the center, there will be one section that is a little flatter. If you could view a hurricane in 3D, it would look like a wall.

Find the center of this flat wall. Draw a line between the center of the eye and the center of this wall and extend it toward land.

This will tell you exactly where the hurricane will be traveling.

That line is pointing directly towards the city of Gulf Breeze, Florida.

[Vigilantcitizen]

Confirmed spotted tornadoes.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
939 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

...A TORNADO WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT(1100 PM EDT) FOR
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON...NORTHEASTERN CALHOUN AND NORTH CENTRAL LIBERTY
COUNTIES...

AT 935 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE
GROUND. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR OAKDALE...OR ABOUT 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MARIANNA...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

[BurbankKarl]

Have been listening to Mobile, AL PD channel on TeamSpeak....seems all they have is audible alarm calls.

[vidbizz]

Thanks to you Hatteras, I've been listenin' to Buffet...Pascagagula Run, Son of a son of a Sailor, Pirate looks at 40, etc. & drinkin' the rum...

[stlnative]

New Thread

Thread for Thursday 9/16

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1217357/posts

[Types_with_Fist]

a dweep is a dork, geek, nurd....you know

For clarification purposes:

A nerd is anyone who does anything scientific or technical, or is a little "different" socially.

A geek is the sort of person who hangs around and just acts, or seems, terribly nerdy (or really, geeky).

A dweeb is a person who is really clueless in a nerdy sort of way.

A dork is a combination of a dweeb and a geek- a loud and offensive dweeb.

[alancarp]

Does that mean we switch over now, or wait another hour?

[alancarp]

FOX NEWS - Pensacola Civic Center (and Hurricane Shelter) is now flooding... with 2,000 people inside.