I'm hedging bets it's going to hit Palm Beach or come further S. closer to the Miami area. The problem with this storm is how big it is. If it hits Miami head-on (pray that does not happen) the Keys will get winds/storms but only the upper Keys will face hurricane force winds which are extending out 84 from center last I saw.
In all seriousness and honesty, nobody knows where this damned thing is going to hit, only possibilities. From the Southern tip of Florida on up needs to be prepared for this one.
WTNT41 KNHC 012052
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2004
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FLEW AGAIN IN THE EYE OF FRANCES AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 938 MB. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED BUT THE PLANE MEASURED 131 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 120 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT MOST LIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL GO THROUGH INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS
DURING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. IF FACT...THE 1719Z RECON FIX REPORTED A DOUBLE EYEWALL SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER OF THESE PROCESSES IS TAKING PLACE. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE U.S. COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
DATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ON BOARD THE NOAA P3 AIRCRAFT WERE USED TO DECREASE THE WIND RADII ESTIMATES IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. BECAUSE THE NW WIND RADII ARE SMALLER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED...THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST CAN BE DELAYED A LITTLE.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOW FAR WEST THE HURRICANE WILL GO WILL DEPEND ON THE FUTURE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND THAT VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE GFS AND THE GFDL CONSISTENTLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND TURN THE HURRICANE NORTHWESTWARD EARLIER THAN ANY OTHER MODELS. BECAUSE THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS ARE VERY RELIABLE...I WAS TEMPTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK A LITTLE BIT TO
THE NORTH AND EAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE FLORIDA STATE
UNIVERSITY SUPER-ENSEMBLE AND THE CONU CONSENSUS...WHICH CONSISTS OF THE AVERAGE OF THE GFDL...GFDN...GFS...NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS...BRING THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS FLORIDA. THEREFORE...I AM NOT READY TO MAKE THE NORTHWARD SHIFT AT THIS TIME AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/2100Z 22.0N 71.0W 120 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 23.1N 73.0W 125 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 24.3N 74.9W 125 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 25.4N 76.7W 125 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 26.5N 78.5W 125 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 28.0N 80.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 29.5N 82.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 06/1800Z 32.5N 84.5W 25 KT...INLAND
$$WWWW
That appears to be a good bet, but not a sure thing, 290 now, if Frances goes to above 290 then I will agree. All the models have her turning to 315, I think she wants to go west like all big huricanes a low latitudes do. But the further north she wanders the more likely to turn north. Still a guessing game.
540 am in Orlando has Bud Heddinger hosting the National Hurricane Center news conference at this moment. I believe it is Dave Sheets. At any rate, he is saying South Florida is not out of the mix and some models predict the Bermuda High to weaken but so far it has not and therefore it is not being pulled north..yet, and may not be. They have slowed this storm down, which does buy us more time, but this storm may be over us longer here in Fl. They are bringing it onshore at Melbourne 2pm Sat afternoon. (S. Brevard County) Orlando late on Sat. night. Gainesville, Sunday afternoon.
The long term question is... does this deflection indicate that a turn to a more NW direction is beginning, therefore raising the possibility of landfall to the north of the latest median projections? Or is it just a wobble?
This little directional change, combined with the forecast slowing of its forward speed, makes me think that it may be too early rule the Carolinas out of harm's way.
Question for those more knowledgeable hurricane hands: if it makes landfall, or approaches the land, at a very oblique angle -- say it approaches the north Florida shoreline on a 320 heading -- is there a tendency for it to "bounce" off the land mass and be deflected even more to the right?