Posted on 09/01/2004 3:15:34 AM PDT by Patton@Bastogne
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Free Republic Community:
Welcome to Wednesday's Hurricane Frances news-twist !
It looks like a Melbourne Landfall after all, once again (to Section9's worst fears) churning it's way North along the Coast Highway ...
Excellent Hurricane Frances Websites:
HURRICANE ALLEY
U.S. Weather Observers
Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.
General George S. Patton Jr. Website
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Patton,
Great name, my son is named Patton. My daughter was scheduled for a field hockey tour. in Orlando. We pulled her out but the other 25 kids,their coaches, and their parents went anyways. They play Friday and Sat. and are scheduled to fly out Sun. What risk are they in? I am an upstate NYer who has never been in an hurricane.
Isn't there a public campground there? I tried to camp out there twice when going to the Marathon Seafood Festival but they were filled up with campers both times.
thanks, Keys are still in danger LBelle.
Prayers for the team...
You did the smart thing. The others? Well, I'm not sure the adults made adult decisions.
Wise decsion, flying into the path of a major huricane is just plain stupid. What is wrong with the moms, dads and coaches? Bad huricanes are like huge F2 tornados and that's not counting the 20' of water from the storm surge or the 20" of rain. How freakin stupid can you be to send your kid into something like that, in a strange city no less there they do not know the lay of the land. Unbelievable, Darwin award winners.
You're far enough away from where this will hit to have no problems. You might get tropical storm winds, big deal, we get them with thunderstorm every other day here.....
You'll be fine!!!!!
Mind you, I sure hope that doesn't happen, but I do think it still in the cards.
The reported position is 22.0N by 71.0W - in line with prior motion. Still expecting a turn to the NW and decrease in speed...
A 280 track takes Frances right into the Keys. The keys is still very much in play.
The "parking lot" - that's what I'm worried about with my in-laws. I'm hoping that they come out across the state to us tomorrow.
Hurricane Frances Advisory Number 32
Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on September 01, 2004
...Frances lashing the Turks and Caicos Islands...heading for the
southeastern Bahamas...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the southeast and central
Bahamas and for the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Hurricane Watch remains is in effect the northwest Bahamas.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A
Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
At 5 PM AST...2100z...the Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast
of the Dominican Republic has been discontinued.
A Hurricane Watch will likely be issued for portions of the Florida
East Coast tonight.
At 5 PM AST...2100z...the eye of Hurricane Frances was located by
satellite and a reconnaissance plane near latitude 22.0 north...
longitude 71.0 west or about 35 miles...55 km...north of Grand
Turk island and about 650 miles...1050 km...east-southeast of the
Florida East Coast.
Frances is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph...24 km/hr.
A gradual turn to the northwest and a decrease in forward speed are
expected during the next 24 hours. On this track...the core of the
hurricane will be moving near or over the southeastern Bahamas
tonight and Thursday.
Frances remains a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
hurricane scale with maximum sustained winds of near 140 mph...220
km/hr...with higher gusts. Fluctuations in intensity are expected
during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 80 miles...130 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles...295 km. Reports from ham radio operators indicate
that Grand Turk island has been experiencing 60 to 75 mph...96 to
120 km/hr...winds during the past hour and some damage to trees and
roofs.
Latest minimum central pressure just estimated by a reconnaissance
plane was 938 mb...27.70 inches. This presssure was reported after
the forecast/advisory product was sent.
Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches...locally higher...are possible
in association with Frances.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 15 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected in the Bahamas near the eye of Frances.
Repeating the 5 PM AST position...22.0 N... 71.0 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140
mph. Minimum central pressure... 938 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM
AST.
Forecaster Avila
Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 32
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 01, 2004
an Air Force reconnaissance plane flew again in the eye of Frances
and estimated a minimum pressure of 938 mb. The cloud tops have
warmed but the plane measured 131 knots at flight level. The
initial intensity is kept at 120 knots. The official intensity
forecast calls for the possibility of additional strengthening
during the next day or two as indicated by the SHIPS model...but
most likely the hurricane will go through intensity fluctuations
during eyewall replacement cycles. If fact...the 1719z recon fix
reported a double eyewall suggesting that another of these
processes is taking place. The hurricane is forecast to reach the
U.S. Coast as a major hurricane.
Data from the stepped frequency microwave radiometer...sfmr...on
board the NOAA p3 aircraft were used to decrease the wind radii
estimates in the northwest quadrant. Because the NW wind radii are
smaller than previously analyzed...the issuance of a Hurricane
Watch for the Florida East Coast can be delayed a little.
Frances is moving toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 13
knots around the periphery of the subtropical ridge. How far west
the hurricane will go will depend on the future strength of the
ridge and that varies from model to model. The GFS and the GFDL
consistently weaken the ridge and turn the hurricane northwestward
earlier than any other models. Because the GFS and GFDL models are
very reliable...I was tempted to shift the track a little bit to
the north and east at this time. However...the Florida State
University super-ensemble and the conu consensus...which consists
of the average of the GFDL...GFDN...GFS...NOGAPS and UKMET
models...bring the hurricane on a west-northwest track across
Florida. Therefore...I am not ready to make the northward shift at
this time and the official forecast remains as in the previous
advisory...very close to the consensus and basically on top of the
FSU super-ensemble.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 01/2100z 22.0n 71.0w 120 kt
12hr VT 02/0600z 23.1n 73.0w 125 kt
24hr VT 02/1800z 24.3n 74.9w 125 kt
36hr VT 03/0600z 25.4n 76.7w 125 kt
48hr VT 03/1800z 26.5n 78.5w 125 kt
72hr VT 04/1800z 28.0n 80.5w 115 kt
96hr VT 05/1800z 29.5n 82.5w 35 kt...inland
120hr VT 06/1800z 32.5n 84.5w 25 kt...inland
I'm worried about all the debris too. They are saying that this storm is huge, and that hurricane force winds extend about 80 miles from the center (with Charley, it was only 20-30). 74+ mph winds here right now would not be good. I think the shutters may have to go up again!
I'm hedging bets it's going to hit Palm Beach or come further S. closer to the Miami area. The problem with this storm is how big it is. If it hits Miami head-on (pray that does not happen) the Keys will get winds/storms but only the upper Keys will face hurricane force winds which are extending out 84 from center last I saw.
In all seriousness and honesty, nobody knows where this damned thing is going to hit, only possibilities. From the Southern tip of Florida on up needs to be prepared for this one.
Don't count on it.
Hugo hit S. Carolina, travelled two hundred miles and Charlotte still got 100 mph winds.
Frances appears to be a similar hurricane.
WTNT41 KNHC 012052
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2004
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FLEW AGAIN IN THE EYE OF FRANCES AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 938 MB. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED BUT THE PLANE MEASURED 131 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 120 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT MOST LIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL GO THROUGH INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS
DURING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. IF FACT...THE 1719Z RECON FIX REPORTED A DOUBLE EYEWALL SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER OF THESE PROCESSES IS TAKING PLACE. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE U.S. COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
DATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ON BOARD THE NOAA P3 AIRCRAFT WERE USED TO DECREASE THE WIND RADII ESTIMATES IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. BECAUSE THE NW WIND RADII ARE SMALLER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED...THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST CAN BE DELAYED A LITTLE.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOW FAR WEST THE HURRICANE WILL GO WILL DEPEND ON THE FUTURE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND THAT VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE GFS AND THE GFDL CONSISTENTLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND TURN THE HURRICANE NORTHWESTWARD EARLIER THAN ANY OTHER MODELS. BECAUSE THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS ARE VERY RELIABLE...I WAS TEMPTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK A LITTLE BIT TO
THE NORTH AND EAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE FLORIDA STATE
UNIVERSITY SUPER-ENSEMBLE AND THE CONU CONSENSUS...WHICH CONSISTS OF THE AVERAGE OF THE GFDL...GFDN...GFS...NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS...BRING THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS FLORIDA. THEREFORE...I AM NOT READY TO MAKE THE NORTHWARD SHIFT AT THIS TIME AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/2100Z 22.0N 71.0W 120 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 23.1N 73.0W 125 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 24.3N 74.9W 125 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 25.4N 76.7W 125 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 26.5N 78.5W 125 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 28.0N 80.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 29.5N 82.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 06/1800Z 32.5N 84.5W 25 KT...INLAND
$$WWWW
That appears to be a good bet, but not a sure thing, 290 now, if Frances goes to above 290 then I will agree. All the models have her turning to 315, I think she wants to go west like all big huricanes a low latitudes do. But the further north she wanders the more likely to turn north. Still a guessing game.
Miami resident placemarker...
540 am in Orlando has Bud Heddinger hosting the National Hurricane Center news conference at this moment. I believe it is Dave Sheets. At any rate, he is saying South Florida is not out of the mix and some models predict the Bermuda High to weaken but so far it has not and therefore it is not being pulled north..yet, and may not be. They have slowed this storm down, which does buy us more time, but this storm may be over us longer here in Fl. They are bringing it onshore at Melbourne 2pm Sat afternoon. (S. Brevard County) Orlando late on Sat. night. Gainesville, Sunday afternoon.
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