Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Hurricane Frances : 2004-09-01 (New Thread)
Various | 2004-09-01 | Patton@Bastogne

Posted on 09/01/2004 3:15:34 AM PDT by Patton@Bastogne

.


Free Republic Community:



Welcome to Wednesday's Hurricane Frances news-twist !

It looks like a Melbourne Landfall after all, once again (to Section9's worst fears) churning it's way North along the Coast Highway ...



Excellent Hurricane Frances Websites:

HURRICANE ALLEY

U.S. Weather Observers






Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.



General George S. Patton Jr. Website

.


TOPICS: Announcements; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Georgia; US: South Carolina; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: frances; hurricane; hurricanefrances
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 341-360361-380381-400 ... 621-637 next last
To: Patton@Bastogne

Patton,
Great name, my son is named Patton. My daughter was scheduled for a field hockey tour. in Orlando. We pulled her out but the other 25 kids,their coaches, and their parents went anyways. They play Friday and Sat. and are scheduled to fly out Sun. What risk are they in? I am an upstate NYer who has never been in an hurricane.


361 posted on 09/01/2004 1:45:58 PM PDT by scot taylor
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: LBelle
Plantation Key.

Isn't there a public campground there? I tried to camp out there twice when going to the Marathon Seafood Festival but they were filled up with campers both times.

362 posted on 09/01/2004 1:46:21 PM PDT by PJ-Comix
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 360 | View Replies]

To: dirtboy

thanks, Keys are still in danger LBelle.


363 posted on 09/01/2004 1:46:40 PM PDT by jpsb (Nominated 1994 "Worst writer on the net")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 359 | View Replies]

To: scot taylor
Extreme risk. You did a good thing.

Prayers for the team...

364 posted on 09/01/2004 1:50:36 PM PDT by Sam's Army (Reject Materialism)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 361 | View Replies]

To: scot taylor

You did the smart thing. The others? Well, I'm not sure the adults made adult decisions.


365 posted on 09/01/2004 1:53:30 PM PDT by NotJustAnotherPrettyFace (Michael <a href = "http://www.michaelmoore.com/" title="Miserable Failure">"Miserable Failure"</a>)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 361 | View Replies]

To: scot taylor

Wise decsion, flying into the path of a major huricane is just plain stupid. What is wrong with the moms, dads and coaches? Bad huricanes are like huge F2 tornados and that's not counting the 20' of water from the storm surge or the 20" of rain. How freakin stupid can you be to send your kid into something like that, in a strange city no less there they do not know the lay of the land. Unbelievable, Darwin award winners.


366 posted on 09/01/2004 1:53:32 PM PDT by jpsb (Nominated 1994 "Worst writer on the net")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 361 | View Replies]

To: LBelle

You're far enough away from where this will hit to have no problems. You might get tropical storm winds, big deal, we get them with thunderstorm every other day here.....

You'll be fine!!!!!


367 posted on 09/01/2004 1:53:40 PM PDT by Brytani (A changing mind is a terrible thing to waste - Vote John Kerry)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 360 | View Replies]

To: weatherFrEaK
I hope you're right, but there are steering currents and the western edge of the Bermuda High to consider... both of these factors will permit a northerly turn if the 800 lbs. gorilla wants to go there. The worst case scenario includes a stall off the coast until those steering currents push it north.

Mind you, I sure hope that doesn't happen, but I do think it still in the cards.

The reported position is 22.0N by 71.0W - in line with prior motion. Still expecting a turn to the NW and decrease in speed...

368 posted on 09/01/2004 1:56:27 PM PDT by alancarp (Boycott France and anything that even LOOKS French.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 355 | View Replies]

To: All

PLEASE READ

As someone who went through Hurricane Andrew, I need to mention something that I don't hear people talking about. Make sure you find your house insurance policy! Put it inside of a ziplock bag and keep it with you at all times. If your area does get slammed, this is going to save you a lot of trouble. While you are at it, make sure you do the same with any other important papers. Titles for vehicles, vehicle insurance policies, birth certificates, and other items.
369 posted on 09/01/2004 1:56:35 PM PDT by killjoy (Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 367 | View Replies]

To: Brytani

A 280 track takes Frances right into the Keys. The keys is still very much in play.


370 posted on 09/01/2004 1:57:30 PM PDT by jpsb (Nominated 1994 "Worst writer on the net")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 367 | View Replies]

To: TongRat

The "parking lot" - that's what I'm worried about with my in-laws. I'm hoping that they come out across the state to us tomorrow.


371 posted on 09/01/2004 1:58:14 PM PDT by Jennifer in Florida
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 169 | View Replies]

To: alancarp

Hurricane Frances Advisory Number 32


Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on September 01, 2004



...Frances lashing the Turks and Caicos Islands...heading for the
southeastern Bahamas...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the southeast and central
Bahamas and for the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Hurricane Watch remains is in effect the northwest Bahamas.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A
Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

At 5 PM AST...2100z...the Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast
of the Dominican Republic has been discontinued.

A Hurricane Watch will likely be issued for portions of the Florida
East Coast tonight.

At 5 PM AST...2100z...the eye of Hurricane Frances was located by
satellite and a reconnaissance plane near latitude 22.0 north...
longitude 71.0 west or about 35 miles...55 km...north of Grand
Turk island and about 650 miles...1050 km...east-southeast of the
Florida East Coast.

Frances is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph...24 km/hr.
A gradual turn to the northwest and a decrease in forward speed are
expected during the next 24 hours. On this track...the core of the
hurricane will be moving near or over the southeastern Bahamas
tonight and Thursday.

Frances remains a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
hurricane scale with maximum sustained winds of near 140 mph...220
km/hr...with higher gusts. Fluctuations in intensity are expected
during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 80 miles...130 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles...295 km. Reports from ham radio operators indicate
that Grand Turk island has been experiencing 60 to 75 mph...96 to
120 km/hr...winds during the past hour and some damage to trees and
roofs.

Latest minimum central pressure just estimated by a reconnaissance
plane was 938 mb...27.70 inches. This presssure was reported after
the forecast/advisory product was sent.
Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches...locally higher...are possible
in association with Frances.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 15 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected in the Bahamas near the eye of Frances.

Repeating the 5 PM AST position...22.0 N... 71.0 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140
mph. Minimum central pressure... 938 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM
AST.

Forecaster Avila


Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 32


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 01, 2004



an Air Force reconnaissance plane flew again in the eye of Frances
and estimated a minimum pressure of 938 mb. The cloud tops have
warmed but the plane measured 131 knots at flight level. The
initial intensity is kept at 120 knots. The official intensity
forecast calls for the possibility of additional strengthening
during the next day or two as indicated by the SHIPS model...but
most likely the hurricane will go through intensity fluctuations
during eyewall replacement cycles. If fact...the 1719z recon fix
reported a double eyewall suggesting that another of these
processes is taking place. The hurricane is forecast to reach the
U.S. Coast as a major hurricane.

Data from the stepped frequency microwave radiometer...sfmr...on
board the NOAA p3 aircraft were used to decrease the wind radii
estimates in the northwest quadrant. Because the NW wind radii are
smaller than previously analyzed...the issuance of a Hurricane
Watch for the Florida East Coast can be delayed a little.

Frances is moving toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 13
knots around the periphery of the subtropical ridge. How far west
the hurricane will go will depend on the future strength of the
ridge and that varies from model to model. The GFS and the GFDL
consistently weaken the ridge and turn the hurricane northwestward
earlier than any other models. Because the GFS and GFDL models are
very reliable...I was tempted to shift the track a little bit to
the north and east at this time. However...the Florida State
University super-ensemble and the conu consensus...which consists
of the average of the GFDL...GFDN...GFS...NOGAPS and UKMET
models...bring the hurricane on a west-northwest track across
Florida. Therefore...I am not ready to make the northward shift at
this time and the official forecast remains as in the previous
advisory...very close to the consensus and basically on top of the
FSU super-ensemble.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 01/2100z 22.0n 71.0w 120 kt
12hr VT 02/0600z 23.1n 73.0w 125 kt
24hr VT 02/1800z 24.3n 74.9w 125 kt
36hr VT 03/0600z 25.4n 76.7w 125 kt
48hr VT 03/1800z 26.5n 78.5w 125 kt
72hr VT 04/1800z 28.0n 80.5w 115 kt
96hr VT 05/1800z 29.5n 82.5w 35 kt...inland
120hr VT 06/1800z 32.5n 84.5w 25 kt...inland


372 posted on 09/01/2004 1:58:25 PM PDT by libtoken
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 368 | View Replies]

Comment #373 Removed by Moderator

To: Flipyaforreal

I'm worried about all the debris too. They are saying that this storm is huge, and that hurricane force winds extend about 80 miles from the center (with Charley, it was only 20-30). 74+ mph winds here right now would not be good. I think the shutters may have to go up again!


374 posted on 09/01/2004 2:00:20 PM PDT by Jennifer in Florida
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 174 | View Replies]

To: jpsb

I'm hedging bets it's going to hit Palm Beach or come further S. closer to the Miami area. The problem with this storm is how big it is. If it hits Miami head-on (pray that does not happen) the Keys will get winds/storms but only the upper Keys will face hurricane force winds which are extending out 84 from center last I saw.

In all seriousness and honesty, nobody knows where this damned thing is going to hit, only possibilities. From the Southern tip of Florida on up needs to be prepared for this one.


375 posted on 09/01/2004 2:01:21 PM PDT by Brytani (A changing mind is a terrible thing to waste - Vote John Kerry)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 370 | View Replies]

To: dawn53
I think conventional wisdom is they lose strength quickly once they hit land, so even if it came across the state, its force would be greatly lessened once it got to Tampa.

Don't count on it.

Hugo hit S. Carolina, travelled two hundred miles and Charlotte still got 100 mph winds.

Frances appears to be a similar hurricane.

376 posted on 09/01/2004 2:09:02 PM PDT by Vinnie
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: All

WTNT41 KNHC 012052
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2004

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FLEW AGAIN IN THE EYE OF FRANCES AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 938 MB. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED BUT THE PLANE MEASURED 131 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 120 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT MOST LIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL GO THROUGH INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS
DURING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. IF FACT...THE 1719Z RECON FIX REPORTED A DOUBLE EYEWALL SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER OF THESE PROCESSES IS TAKING PLACE. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE U.S. COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

DATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ON BOARD THE NOAA P3 AIRCRAFT WERE USED TO DECREASE THE WIND RADII ESTIMATES IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. BECAUSE THE NW WIND RADII ARE SMALLER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED...THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST CAN BE DELAYED A LITTLE.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOW FAR WEST THE HURRICANE WILL GO WILL DEPEND ON THE FUTURE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND THAT VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE GFS AND THE GFDL CONSISTENTLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND TURN THE HURRICANE NORTHWESTWARD EARLIER THAN ANY OTHER MODELS. BECAUSE THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS ARE VERY RELIABLE...I WAS TEMPTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK A LITTLE BIT TO
THE NORTH AND EAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE FLORIDA STATE
UNIVERSITY SUPER-ENSEMBLE AND THE CONU CONSENSUS...WHICH CONSISTS OF THE AVERAGE OF THE GFDL...GFDN...GFS...NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS...BRING THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS FLORIDA. THEREFORE...I AM NOT READY TO MAKE THE NORTHWARD SHIFT AT THIS TIME AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 22.0N 71.0W 120 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 23.1N 73.0W 125 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 24.3N 74.9W 125 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 25.4N 76.7W 125 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 26.5N 78.5W 125 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 28.0N 80.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 29.5N 82.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 06/1800Z 32.5N 84.5W 25 KT...INLAND


$$WWWW


377 posted on 09/01/2004 2:09:23 PM PDT by Marak
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 375 | View Replies]

To: Brytani

That appears to be a good bet, but not a sure thing, 290 now, if Frances goes to above 290 then I will agree. All the models have her turning to 315, I think she wants to go west like all big huricanes a low latitudes do. But the further north she wanders the more likely to turn north. Still a guessing game.


378 posted on 09/01/2004 2:11:07 PM PDT by jpsb (Nominated 1994 "Worst writer on the net")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 375 | View Replies]

To: jpsb

Miami resident placemarker...


379 posted on 09/01/2004 2:12:43 PM PDT by RMDupree (HHD: My heart remains in Washington....)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 378 | View Replies]

To: Brytani

540 am in Orlando has Bud Heddinger hosting the National Hurricane Center news conference at this moment. I believe it is Dave Sheets. At any rate, he is saying South Florida is not out of the mix and some models predict the Bermuda High to weaken but so far it has not and therefore it is not being pulled north..yet, and may not be. They have slowed this storm down, which does buy us more time, but this storm may be over us longer here in Fl. They are bringing it onshore at Melbourne 2pm Sat afternoon. (S. Brevard County) Orlando late on Sat. night. Gainesville, Sunday afternoon.


380 posted on 09/01/2004 2:13:12 PM PDT by sheikdetailfeather
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 375 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 341-360361-380381-400 ... 621-637 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson