Posted on 09/01/2004 3:15:34 AM PDT by Patton@Bastogne
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Free Republic Community:
Welcome to Wednesday's Hurricane Frances news-twist !
It looks like a Melbourne Landfall after all, once again (to Section9's worst fears) churning it's way North along the Coast Highway ...
Excellent Hurricane Frances Websites:
HURRICANE ALLEY
U.S. Weather Observers
Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.
General George S. Patton Jr. Website
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By 9 a.m. Friday, Palm Beach Countyis expected to experience winds topping 39 mph. Hurricane force winds exceeding 75 mph are expected to reach Palm Beach County by midnight Friday.
Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast is only a small part of Frances’ “cone of probability,” but it is in the middle of that cone. The National Hurrricane Center planned to post a hurricane watch as early as 11 p.m. Wednesday.
The winds stayed very strong with the recent storm and for a shorter period of time.
That map is wishful thinking. 100 mph winds in Orlando are likely at the very least......likely much much stronger.
Anyone know how far across the eye is?
MIAMI (AP) — The area’s main radar system was not working Wednesday as Hurricane Frances swirled toward the Bahamas, but forecasters promised that it would be operational while the storm is still hundreds of miles from the U.S. coast.
To help, two mobile radar units from Texas A&M University were sent to Miami to give the city coverage until the main system is working and to provide backup during the hurricane, officials said.
Thousands of people were evacuated in the Bahamas as Frances bore down on the islands Wednesday. It was expected to reach the United States late Friday or early Saturday with powerful winds of around 140 mph. The National Hurricane Center said the storm could get even stronger as it approaches.
During Hurricane Charley last month, the principal radar covering the landfall area in southwest Florida went down due to mechanical failure. The radar, in Ruskin south of Tampa, wasn’t restored until 14 hours before the storm smashed into the state, but backup systems still would have tracked the hurricanes, forecasters said.
Miami’s main radar has been down since a lightning strike knocked it out last weekend, said National Weather Service meteorologist Jim Lushine.
But Lushine said the weather service was repairing the main radar and would have it up by Thursday, when Frances is expected to still be outside the Miami-radar’s range of 250 miles. The city has been using backup radar from other cities in Florida.
“Having an extra set of eyes is a good thing,” Lushine said of the mobile units.
Lushine said any difference between the main radar and the mobile units or backup sites would not affect the forecast track of the storm.
The mobile units would provide less detailed images, meaning it would be more difficult to isolate where, for example, specific wind strength is within the hurricane or if tornadoes are developing inside the storm, Lushine said.
“There would be a slight degradation in capability but we’d still know where (the hurricane) is going to go,” Lushine said.
The mobile units from Texas A&M’s atmospheric sciences department are part of a venture also involving the University of Oklahoma and the National Severe Storm Lab in Norman, Okla., said Dick Orville, interim head of the department.
“It’s a scary situation when you realize you have a Category 4 hurricane heading your way and you have no radar,” Orville said.
The radar units, each mounted on a flatbed truck, were sent at the behest of weather officials in Miami. Jerry Guynes, who helped design and build them, will meet the units in Miami.
“Time is becoming a critical factor, so as soon as the trucks get there, they want the system up and running to give them as much information as possible,” Orville said.
OK, the previous message in the cycle is "Council Meeting" but that was a nice ominous touch for the passers by.
Here is the latest from Brevard County Emergency Management:
Mandatory evacuation issued for barrier islands, mobile homes
Brevard County officials have declared a local state of emergency. A mandatory evacuation order has been issused for the barrier islands, including Merritt Island, and for people living in the county's 29,000 mobile or manufactured homes. People also should evacuate in low-lying areas that are prone to flooding.The evacuation order begins at 2 p.m. Thursday, officials said at a news conference at about 3 p.m. today.
A dusk-to-dawn curfew in the evacuated areas will begin at 8:30 p.m. Friday, about 30 minutes after sundown. Law enforcement officers will stop and question people who are out after the curfew begins.
People are being ordered to evacuate, but they won't forced to leave their homes, officials said. Brevard County can expect to experience winds of at least 70 mph for 18 to 20 hours. At least 10-foot storm surges are expected along Brevard's 72 miles of coastline.
And from Indian River County (the next county south from Brevard):
Indian River County will begin mandatory evacuations Thursday
Indian River County Emergency Management coordinator Nate McCollum urged residents of the county to go north out of the state or west for protection immediately.
"Even our shelters may not be safe. It's better to evacuate if you can," he said.
Indian River will begin a mandatory evacuation of residents of barrier islands, beachside and mobile and manufactured homes at noon Thursday. Those living in low-lying areas also are encouraged to leave.
Four shelters at Sebastian River Middle, Oslo Middle, Gifford Middle or the Freshman Learning Center Schools will open at noon. The special-needs center at Sebastian River High School also will open at noon.
The county hasn't yet declared a state of emergency, which would trigger curfews, as Brevard did.
Schools in Indian River Counties will be closed today and Friday.
thank you for that!...I'm glad I came to check this thread. I've been e-mailing family in Palm Bay with tips that I've read on these Frances threads. My father-in-law (near Sebastian Inlet) is still planning to head to Palm Bay to wait it out....nice to know he beat the mandatory evacuation.
Yep, that's what I'm afraid of.
Mark for later.
Perhaps not. This is a slow moving hurricane. To the coastal folks thats bad news. But to the inland folks, its good news.
Nevertheless, Orlando is going to see hurricane force winds for a very long period of time. Anything that might come loose, will come loose.
Hey Homestead!!! We are from Homestead. We lived on 6th ave behind Homestead Natl bank during Andrew. We stayed a year and then moved to Knoxville TN. It's been a good move for our family, but we still love South Florida. As a matter of fact we are scheduled to fly into Ft Lauderdale this Sat. for a visit to Miami and the Keys next week. We're sitting here trying to decide what to do. Any suggestions???
Good luck my FRiend.
I'd be more than happy to tell you to come on up here to me if need be - but these things are so weird I might need to come down to you!!! Please stay in touch....there is only 70 miles between us (and of course the bridge/tunnel)
Isabel only caused us to lose phone and cable, but never lost power. We lost a few sheets of the metal roof on the barn, but that was it.
That seems extremely unlikely. There's nothing to move the Bermuda high out of the picture and hurricanes don't crash into high pressure ridges. They try to skirt around them.
The western edge of that ridge is what Frances is riding now. The ridge could weaken somewhat during the next couple of days allowing for a more northerly landfall than the current projection, but it's not going to go away.
We were in Homestead during Hurricane Andrew and we are scheduled to fly into Ft Lauderdale Sat afternoon for a week in Mia and the Keys. I don't think it is going to be that bad in Miami. The problem you are going to have is getting an airline t o fly you into there tomorrow. You may have to switch to a Sunday flight. Worst case scenario, you will miss the wedding but make the cruise unless the Bahamas get wrecked. You should be able to get there early Sunday. Or.... if you want to play it really safe, you can fly them back tomorrow or Friday.
If you don't have your stuff together now, there isn't much time left to do so.
My kind of guy. I moved here (FL) during Hurricane Cleo (really bad storm) in 1964 and I am still in love with Florida. Actually Florida gets fewer hurricanes than the Atlantic coast from NC to MA and the Gulf coast from LA to TX.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/atlantic/tropics/ir/20040901.2245.goes12.ir.x.atl_tropics.x.jpg Good shot of Frances.
My Step-Dad is in Merritt Island, relocated from N.Y. last year. Happy to say that he will be evacuating. He is packing up what he wants to bring with him and leaving in the morning for a safer place. Prayers for all those in the path of Hurricane Frances.
You might want to keep track of the weather. There is a good chance that a category 4 hurricane will be centered over Ft. Lauderdale this Saturday. It might be hard to find a flight.
Those planning to ride out the storm snapped up canned food, water and generators, while military helicopters and planes were flown out of the area and Cape Canaveral's Kennedy Space Center said it would close on Thursday.
Forecasters said the still-strengthening Category 4 storm could hit on Labor Day weekend as early as Friday night, less than three weeks after Charley raked Florida's western coast with 145 mph wind, causing billions of dollars in damage and killing 27 people.
"I can't emphasize enough how powerful this is. If there's something out there that's going to weaken it, we haven't seen it," National Hurricane Center director Max Mayfield said.
Gov. Jeb Bush and Georgia Gov. Sonny Perdue declared states of emergency, activating the National Guard. Bush also warned more evacuations may be ordered.
Many homes in southwest Florida still have blue tarps patching holes in their roofs after Charley, and some streets remain full of storm debris that could become wind-blown projectiles.
"We've just gone through 2 1/2 weeks of torture trying to get our lives back to some sense of order," said Punta Gorda retiree Tom Hamilton.
Evacuation orders were posted for 300,000 residents in coastal areas of Palm Beach County, and nearly 200,000 were told to leave mobile homes and low-lying areas of Brevard, Martin and Indian River counties, which could be hit by tremendous ocean waves. The evacuation orders were set to take effect Thursday afternoon.
Frances was about 650 miles southeast of Florida Wednesday evening, heading northwest on a course that would take it to the central portion of Florida's eastern coast. Residents of Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina watched the forecast closely in case Frances took a sharper turn to the north.
Bush cautioned that "all the science in the world and all the technology in the world isn't going to be able to pinpoint exactly where the storm goes."
Frances would be the fourth storm to affect Charleston, S.C., this summer. Bonnie and Charley arrived within days of each other in August, and Gaston dumped more than 13 inches of rain in some areas when it came ashore Sunday.
With the ground saturated from previous storms, more rain and the slightest wind could cut utility service for thousands, even if they don't take a direct hit from the storm.
"With the ground this wet, trees could easily topple," said Tom Williams, a spokesman for Duke Power in Charlotte, N.C.
The storm and the mass evacuations are sure to spoil Labor Day outings and make a mess of holiday travel across the Southeast. Florida may reverse lanes on some highways to handle the evacuation traffic, state Emergency Management Director Craig Fugate said.
If Frances hits, it could be the most potent two-hurricane combination to hit a single state in at least a century of record-keeping. Frances is as strong as Charley, but forecasters said it could become a Category 5 with winds of 156 mph or higher.
Hurricane-force winds extended about 80 miles from Frances' center, making it about twice the width of Charley and increasing the possibility for damage.
The last time two major hurricanes hit Florida in rapid succession was 1950. Hurricane Easy struck Tampa around Sept. 4 of that year and Hurricane King hit Miami six weeks later on Oct. 17. They were Category 3 storms.
Nancy Cuffaro of Port Charlotte, whose home and pizza restaurant were damaged by Charley, said she is hoping Frances spares an area that is still suffering.
"I know we can't withstand too much. I really don't know what to think here. I'm lost. It's starting to get to me," she said.
A Home Depot to the south in Florida City, hit hard by Hurricane Andrew 12 years ago, more than doubled its daily sales and ran out of generators and plywood. It sold $50,000 worth of lumber Tuesday, said assistant manager Lisa Ftiffler.
North Miami Beach resident Lorraine Lewis bought a small cooking stove in case of emergency but wasn't planning to stick around long enough to use it.
"I have water and plastic and a plane ticket," she said.
State officials worried about finding enough room in shelters. Many hotel rooms in southern Florida are occupied by emergency workers and people left homeless by Charley. Some schools and community centers are still being used as shelters.
Deanna Creamer, who rode out Charley in her house in Punta Gorda, was still repairing roof and water damage. "I heard a little bit on the radio this morning, and I shut it off," said Creamer, 40. "I just can't imagine having to go through this again."
Charley destroyed or heavily damaged more than 30,000 homes and caused an estimated $7.4 billion in insured damage. It was the worst natural disaster to hit Florida since Andrew caused $15.5 billion in insured damage and killed 15 people.
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