Posted on 08/12/2004 12:34:28 PM PDT by jazzergal
NEW YORK For all you pundits and political reporters out there who think the Iraq war will have a major influence on the fall election, or who think the Bush-Kerry race is a toss-up, Yale University economist Ray C. Fair has a message for you: forget both. Iraq won't matter and Bush will win in a landslide.
In an interview to be published in next Sunday's "New York Times Magazine," Fair told Deborah Solomon, "My latest prediction shows that Bush will receive 57.5% of the two-party votes ... the chances that Bush loses are very small."
Fair, who claims to be a Kerry supporter, is described by the Times in the Aug. 15 issue as being known for creating an econometric equation that "has predicted presidential elections with relative accuracy." His most recent book, in fact, is titled, "Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things."
How does he explain media expectations of a close race? Polls are "notoriously flaky this far ahead of the election," he said, while his model has allegedly proven accurate to within 2.5%.
Economic growth and inflation are really the only things that matter in a presidential race, he argues, with the current war and social issues such as gay marriage having negligible impact.
Asked if his prediction will boost Bush's prospects, Fair replied, "If Kerry supporters see that I have made this big prediction for Bush, more of them could turn out just to prove an economist wrong."
Sounds like some bull to stir up the Demo base. He knows it is bull but it serves their purposes of turning out the base.
I have said the same thing for months and nobody wrote a story about it. Bush will get close to 60% and because of his coattails will totally destroy the democrats in numerous races.
Look for Keyes to win the senate race in Illinois.
I do not know if I can take good news after all the negative news of late. Does anybody know anything about this guy. I hope he is correct.
You know, I think I am pretty safe in saying that the electorate does not give a rats patoote what Yale Economist Yale C. Fair has to say about anything...
Keyes is going to get killed, regardless of how Bush does.
And then Illinois gets Obama bin Kerry for senator.
86% of statistics are made up on the spot.
Not so.
Human nature dictates that if one has the belief he is going to lose, he does not try harder.
If the Dims face October polls saying that GWB is a shoo in, large numbers will stay home, while many (so called) independents and undecideds will vote for GWB to have a winner.
JMHO
"Economic growth and inflation are really the only things that matter in a presidential race"
That is such an idiotic statement. There hasn't been a Presidential election since 9-11, so how does that logic follow.
We were attacked on 9-11, 3,000 Americans died....terrorists flew a jetliner into our Pentagon....and we are supposed to believe "economic growth and inflation are the only things that really mattter." INSANE!
Actually, Roy Fair has a fairly well known predictive model. It is referred to on this fun political forecasting site
http://www.politicalforecasting.com/.
Re: Keyes and Bush and 60% I would love to see that happen. The DemocRATS would be totally destroyed.
I agree. Hate is not a very good motivator over the long run. I doubt that the welfare mothers, etc will be very motivated to vote based on hatred.
Where are you from?
I've checked his history on the website. He called 2000 for Bush by a whisker, about a year in advance.
Consider: the mushy middle decides elections, and they are not partisans. The pocketbook is their only hot button. Good means incumbents, bad means challengers.
I'd like to think we had more integrity and smarts, but hey! This is the electorate we're talking about here.
For all the noise and flashing lights, very little is really in control of the parties, candidates or partisans. So sit back, enjoy the show, pop some popcorn, and watch Bush win. Landslide, baby!
(Personally I predicted 55% / 45% and 38 states for Bush way back last Winter, and I'm sticking with it.)
You have been reading all of my posts, haven't you?
You and I think alike! &;-)
And yes..........I believe Keyes can win and beat osamabama!
God Bless you!
LP
BUSH/CHENEY 2004
9-11 is now a non-issue to most people. It is something that happened years ago to someone else.
Economic issues are about what is happening to them, right now.
Those of us who hang around FR can sometimes lose sight of the problems that the average citizen knows or cares little about what is going on outside the immediacy of their little life.
Sounds like this is what he is hoping to do, stir up the dems.
Hate is an incentive killer.
It's very hard to support a guy like Kerry from a New England State, when you live in say Detroit, or Tuscon, and are now realizing the guy is carrying around more garbage that your trashman. ;)
The country is doing rather well, all things considered. Is their hate enough to cut of their noses?
Just under 90 days to go. We'll see.
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