USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup: No boost for Kerry after convention [Bush/Cheney 50% Kerry/Edwards 46%]

August 1, 2004

[greyfoxx39]

ROTFLMBO... Hillarious

[Howlin]

My guess is whatever YOU tell me it will be......LOL.

You know I am the worst "numbers" person on this forum.

What's your guess?

[Howlin]

Even NC's governor didn't go.

[HamiltonJay]

From USATODAY STORY:

"Analysts say the lack of a boost for Kerry may reflect the intensely polarized contest. Nearly nine of 10 voters say in the survey that they are confident they won't change their mind between now and the Nov. 2 election. That leaves little room for a candidate to gain support even when major events occur."

Funny BUSH just swung 4 points higher during the Democratic convention, seems to me that show a canidate can win or lose a very significant amount of support in a short time frame.

Bush gains my leading, Kerry loses by opening his useless pie hole.

[deport]

It may not be much as the public is very divided at this point and not a lot of undecides to swing. The bump has to come from the undecides or voters saying they are for Kerry/Nader, etc. But then this is a totally different election because of 9-11 as opposed to others in the recent past. I'm hoping for a pleasant and maybe unexpected surprise... The conventions aren't being watched as much now evidenced by the major media reduction in coverage and Neilsen ratings.

[NurdlyPeon]

The Bush bounce still makes me happy, even if it doesn't have any big significance. I'll take any piece of good news I can get. The thought of Kerry winning the election scares the hell out of me.

[TomServo]

Just wanted to bttt before it was posted again for the thousandth time...

[BIGLOOK]

Hopefully he'll be troubled, disturbed & saddened in Nov. Notice how his speech patterns have been adopted by Hilliary. Time to give both of them real reason to complain over unemployment.

[EGPWS]

Bush gains by leading, Kerry loses by opening his useless pie hole.

Well said, HJ!

JFK, could have performed better at the DNC opening with "HELLO, I'M MISTER ED!" "Wiiiilburrrr, feed me!"

However he didn't for he insisted on catering to the delegates and drone on with stale comments that aren't even relevant anymore.

Thus, the millions spent on the convention and the loss of poll numbers as a result.

[VOA]

bump for publicity

[Bob]

Well, kerry certainly got no bump from the Iowa Electronic Market.

From 7/25/04, just before the dem convention, his share price dropped from 0.510 to 0.482 today, a drop of 0.018 points (-5.5%).

GWB's share price, on the other hand, advanced from 0.490 on 7/25 to 0.512 today , a gain of 0.022 points (+4.5%).

While I'm not entirely convinced of the accuracy of the IEM versus normal polling, this sure doesn't look good for J F'n kerry.

[P-Marlowe]

Looks like Bush "misled" the American People when his press secretary stated that Kerry would get a double digit bounce before August 1st.

I wonder if Kerry will capitalize on the president misleading everyone on this issue?

Can't you just picture Kerry standing in front of his sheeple saying: "President Bush lied to the American people when he said I would get a double digit bounce in the polls after the convention. Well it didn't happen. I will never mislead the American people like that. Did you know I served in Vietnam?"

[deport]

The thought of Kerry winning the election scares the hell out of me.

---

It should scare any sane person, imo.

[maro]

I remember McGovern...an honest but incredibly naive man who would have brought ruin to America. I contrast him to Al Kerry, who is deceptive, double-minded, and duplicitous. I prefer McGovern.

[kabar]

It may not be much as the public is very divided at this point and not a lot of undecides to swing.

The media and the Dems want to make it seem that it is evenly divided. In point of fact, it probably isn't close. America is not going to elect the most liberal senator from the most liberal state, no matter how the Dems try to disguise him. Kerry has a 20 year voting record and a lot of baggage including his antiwar activities with the radical VVAW and the image of an arrogant, out-of-touch gigolo who married a rich widow with an attitude and a foreign accent.

[deport]

In point of fact, it probably isn't close.

---

We'll know for sure come Nov. 2 about 8 pm EST...... This is a different environment this election than we've had in the past so who knows how things will break... I hope it isn't close and it may not be when you look at state by state once the GOP convention is over.

However polls from across the specturm have shown it close and 2000 ought to be remembered.

The month of July in review....

National 2004 Presidential Race Polls

3-Way Race
Bush/Cheney - Kerry/Edwards - Nader/Camejo

Key: LV = Likely Voters, RV = Registered Voters

Poll	Date	Bush/ Cheney	Kerry/ Edwards	Nader/ Camejo	Spread
RCP Average	7/22-7/31	46.7%	47.0%	2.7%	Kerry +0.3
CNN/Gallup/USAT (763 LV)	7/30-7/31	50%	46%	2%	Bush +4
Newsweek (1,010 RV)	7/29-7/30	42%	49%	3%	Kerry +7
ABC News/WP (909 RV)	7/22-7/25	48%	46%	3%	Bush +2
IBD/TIPP (883 RV)	7/19-7/24	42%	44%	3%	Kerry +2
Time/SRBI (1000 RV)	7/20-7/22	43%	46%	5%	Kerry +3
Quinnipiac Univ. (1551 RV)	7/18-7/22	43%	44%	4%	Kerry +1
Fox News (767 LV)	7/20-7/21	43%	44%	3%	Kerry +1
NBC/WSJ (813 RV)	7/19-7/21	47%	45%	2%	Bush +2
CNN/Gallup/USAT (709 LV)	7/19-7/21	46%	47%	4%	Kerry +1
LA Times (1,529 RV)	7/17-7/21	44%	46%	3%	Kerry +2
Pew (1,568 RV)	7/8-7/18	44%	46%	3%	Kerry +2
IBD/TIPP (842 RV)	7/12-7/17	40%	42%	4%	Kerry +2
Marist (938 RV)	7/12-7/15	44%	45%	2%	Kerry +1
CBS/NYT (823 RV)	7/11-7/15	42%	45%	5%	Kerry +3
Dem Corps** (1,010 LV)	7/10-7/13	45%	48%	4%	Kerry +3
Wash Post/ABC (721 RV)	7/8-7/11	46%	46%	4%	TIE
CNN/Gallup/USAT (706 LV)	7/8-7/11	45%	50%	2%	Kerry +5
IBD/TIPP (800 RV)	7/6-7/10	43%	47%	4%	Kerry +4
Newsweek (1,001 RV)	7/8-7/9	44%	47%	3%	Kerry +3
Time (774 LV)	7/6-7/8	45%	47%	4%	Kerry +2
Zogby (1008 LV)	7/6-7/7	45%	47%	2%	Kerry +2
AP/Ipsos (804 RV)	7/5-7/7	49%	45%	3%	Bush +4
NBC News (504 RV)	7/6	41%	49%	4%	Kerry +8

[kabar]

Historically, there have not been two close elections in a row since the 1880s. Gore was an incumbent VP with peace and prosperity. Bush was a relative unknown on the national level save his father's name. As an incumbent wartime President with a recovering economy, Bush now holds the advantage. His margin will be greater in the electoral college than the popular vote, but he should win easily as long as the turnout is reasonable. The only fly in the ointment is Iraq and another 9/11 like terrorist attack. I don't pay much attention to the polls until after Labor Day.

[Joee]

I'm even smiling now. Thanks!

[deport]

I don't pay much attention to the polls until after Labor Day.

---

Agree......

[Leo Carpathian]

No wonder half of balloons refused to come down. That did it!