It may not be much as the public is very divided at this point and not a lot of undecides to swing. The bump has to come from the undecides or voters saying they are for Kerry/Nader, etc. But then this is a totally different election because of 9-11 as opposed to others in the recent past. I'm hoping for a pleasant and maybe unexpected surprise... The conventions aren't being watched as much now evidenced by the major media reduction in coverage and Neilsen ratings.
It may not be much as the public is very divided at this point and not a lot of undecides to swing.
The media and the Dems want to make it seem that it is evenly divided. In point of fact, it probably isn't close. America is not going to elect the most liberal senator from the most liberal state, no matter how the Dems try to disguise him. Kerry has a 20 year voting record and a lot of baggage including his antiwar activities with the radical VVAW and the image of an arrogant, out-of-touch gigolo who married a rich widow with an attitude and a foreign accent.
My wild guess, is that assuming Bush gives one of his better speeches, he gets a 5% bounce after the GOP convention, and leads Kerry by 3% after the GOP convention, and then struggles to hold onto it, with the debates really being the key factor here (assuming events in Iraq and the economy stay reasonably on par). These debates are really more important than debates in other cycles, since so many voters have doubts about both men, and are cross conflicted. It is clear so far, that few of those cross conflicts have been resolved, and why should they until more information is available. JMO.
"hoping for a pleasant and maybe unexpected surprise"
I am increasingly confident that this election will not be close. I finally figured out why. Here's why.
A major chunk of Kerry's base is people angry at Bush. They appear to pollsters as committed, because they are angry. But their anger is unreasoning and based largely on falsehoods. Take away the anger and they have no motivation particularly to stay with Kerry or to turn out to vote for him.
It may seem counter-intuitive, but people mostly don't like being angry, and will be more open to reasons to calm down than to reasons to switch candidates.
When people learn the truth, they will calm down...a lot. Some of course are beyond reason, but we only have to reach a modest percentage to turn this into a breakout.
I'm putting my faith in the Bush pro's that they understand this, and will work to defuse the anger, not with retaliatory bashing, per se, but with the truth of the matters at issue.
Working off the 911 Commission, the senate intel report, etc, as well as eroding Kerry's false-front by publicizing his Senate record, it will be eminently doable to put things back into a more realistic focus. When that happens, and some of the anger dissipates, Kerry is a goner.
He will try to fight back, of course, but with what? They've used all their lies, and the effect is wearing thin. Feeding anger and hate is Kerry's only hope, and it just won't last till November. GW's constancy and even temper speak more loudly every day, even as F-911 fades away, and the spew of anti-Bush books now begin to gather dust in the discount bins.
Pundits on both sides are saying that events will determine this election. I thought so too for awhile but I don't now, except to aid the President. As the anniversary of 9/11 approaches, on the heels of our convention, I can think of no event which has an upside for Kerry.
Consider, Bush can run by focussing on the real enemy, the terrorists, while Kerry has to run by trying to make Bush the enemy. How far can he get with that task? About where he is now--his high-water mark. It's all slippage and trying to shore up crumbling foundations for Kerry now.
Great closer, they say--but he isn't running against a moderate now, and this isn't Massachusetts.
And we have barely begun to fight. As Dennis Miller might say, The Republicans are going to bring their heavy artillery to bear--they're about to wheel out Dick Cheney!