REAGAN-LIKE LANDSLIDE EYED

New York Post ^ | 6/10/04 | DEBORAH ORIN

[kattracks]

June 10, 2004 -- NOW is a good time to look back at the landslide win that sent Ronald Reagan to the White House in 1980, because lots of analysts think 2004 could turn out the same way — close for a long time and then suddenly breaking wide open. In 1980, the break came just days before the vote, when Democrat Jimmy Carter finally agreed to debate. Reagan came off as sunny instead of scary and when he admonished Carter with a smile, "There you go again," it was all over.

Like President Bush, Carter faced voters nervous over both the economy and foreign policy and wondering whether it's time for a change — in Carter's case, skyrocketing inflation at home plus the endless Iran hostage crisis.

But there's a big difference, since Carter kept getting bad news on both fronts, while Bush is starting to get good news on both the economy, with a surge in new jobs, and Iraq, with international support for the June 30 transfer of power.

[ThanhPhero]

utterly decimated

Once upon a time in public school Latin roots were taught.

[PBRSTREETGANG]

I wholeheartedly agree.

[ShandaLear]

In the last few weeks, Kerry has lost nearly every "issue" he had. It will be interesting to see what the campaign will turn on. I think the debates will be key just as they were in 80 and 84.

[BunnySlippers]

I remember her on FR in 2000 when most people thought that Bush would beat Gore with a comfortable margin. You'all know how that turned out. Never again will I be lulled into thinking this election will be easy.

[ThanhPhero]

Please don't condemn posters for their origin. If you calmly answer his points with reason you will display to him reasonability and sense and you will sharpen your own concepts and argument in the process. He might even be as he says he is. His words, taken at face value, show him as confused and shallow. Show him the depth and breadth of Conservatism.

Cursing his social or political origins is the classic leftist form of political argument. It does not become a conservative and drops the tone of dispute to yeah but your father is a jerk.

[Allegra]

That show came back from the dead with the 2000 debates.

Darrell Hammond's Al Gore was freakin' hilarious. I loved the debate sketches.

Y'all are gonna have to tape this stuff for me!

[FreedomPoster]

Who is the visual hearthrob? Think Bush in the flight suit, Kerry in bicycle shorts.

[ThanhPhero]

Partly because their whole focus is on being fashionable and Smart. The real world is not part of their world. They are rich enough that they do not have to consider rude things like reality.

[savedbygrace]

Oh, I believe President Bush will be re-elected. I just don't think it will be an electoral landslide. It probably won't be as close as 2000, but it won't be a Reagan-like landslide. IMO.

[FlatLandBeer]

Beware the month or August.....Washington news cycle is slow...most scandals break then....Something is up I fear....

[Xenalyte]

Bacon TIVOs it, among several other shows, and we are assembling the best parts into a grand compendium of Stuff That Doesn't Suck, available soon on DVD.

[ThanhPhero]

I think is comes down to the so called soccer moms

That is why Bush needs to get across that he is protecting them and their children. He needs to explain the war as protecting our way of life, the soccermoms' way of life.

[Sloth]

At least Bob Dole was personally likeable to some degree, and could poke fun at himself.

John 'I-don't-f***ing-fall!' Kerry has neither of those qualities.

[ride the whirlwind]

I hope that circumstances will allow GWB to get back on the campaign trail in earnest as soon as possible. I pray that he'll show us the fire in his belly which may need a little stoking right now.

[alnick]

I predict a nail biter, just like last time. Too many voters who won't vote for one candidate or the other under any circumstances. A whole lot of people have already made up their minds, and nothing from Iraq or on the economic front is going to sway them at this point. The country is much more polarized now than in 1980.

Maybe you're right, but I believe that number for Kerry is significantly lower than for Bush. Bush's support among his base is solid, not so for Kerry. Many democrats plan to vote for Bush. Have you heard of any Republicans who intend to vote for Kerry? It's only a guessing game until the actual election results are tabulated, but I think it will break strongly in President Bush's favor.

[ThanhPhero]

i'd still like to see W win by one electoral vote, just to honk them off

That would be truly satisfying if it be accompanied by a 60% or better popular vote win. That way we get "legitimacy" and the left gets the frustration of a 1 vote loss.

[Badeye]

If we nail bin Laden between now and the election, a landslide is a very real possibility. Of course how things are going in Iraq will also have a major impact.

My primary concern is the "Fallujah problem". Living al Sadr alive is proving daily to have been a mistake in my opiniion.

Its sort of like ejecting Iraq from Kuwait, but leaving Saddam in power on a smaller scale.

[Sloth]

"Even though I won the popular vote, the only fair thing to do is have a re-vote in the heavily populated African American and Jewish communities in Florida with ballots clearly printed in English, Hebrew, and Ebonics."

[counterpunch]

Beware the month or August.....Washington news cycle is slow...most scandals break then....Something is up I fear....

You can't have a scandal unless you have a scandal prone administration.
Sure the media will be out to invent some scandals, just as they've been trying to do all along, but they can't take hold unless there is some actual substance behind them.

So far we've seen a "scandal" over a "Mission Accomplished" banner on a naval ship as it was coming home after accomplishing its mission, a "scandal" that confused a single document regarding the country of Niger with a statement about British intelligence regarding the continent of Africa, a "scandal" about the "outing" of a Washington open "secret", and a "scandal" over Bush not showing up for duty when his teeth did.

I expect to see more of the same, and I expect them all to get just about as far, too.

[Gulf War One]

The DC rumor mill lends some validity to your fear of scandal, but from what I'm hearing, it will break hard against Kerry, as certain things surface, including round two of the affair story.

I am more fearful of a Lautenberg scenario, where Kerry is replaced after the convention, being deemed unelectable.