Posted on 05/28/2004 4:58:46 AM PDT by BlackRazor
Kerry expanding ads to GOP-leaning Virginia, part of $17 million June buy
By LIZ SIDOTI The Associated Press 5/27/04 11:50 PM
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Democrat John Kerry will spend roughly $17 million on campaign advertising in June and television commercials will air in Republican-leaning Virginia, as well as on channels targeting blacks and Hispanics.
The presumptive Democratic nominee will be the only presidential candidate on the air in Virginia, making a foray into a state that President Bush solidly won in 2000, and in Louisiana, where Bush no longer is running ads.
Kerry's new commercials begin Wednesday in media markets in 20 states and nationally on cable networks. His 60-second biographical ads -- in an unprecedented $25 million buy -- ended Thursday, and his strategists have said the next wave would flesh out his position on issues.
The campaign has made good on its promise to try to expand the number of states where the race is contested from the 17 states considered battlegrounds.
Earlier this month, Kerry started running ads in those states, as well as in Colorado and Louisiana, all but forcing Bush to broadcast commercials in the two GOP-leaning states to keep the Democrat from making inroads.
Kerry's campaign has now turned its money toward Virginia, where Bush beat Democrat Al Gore by 8 percentage points in 2000. Democrats haven't won the Deep South state in a presidential election in decades.
But there are glimmers of hope for Kerry: the state's growing regions -- such as the Washington, D.C., suburbs -- lean Democratic and Virginia's governor, Mark Warner, is a centrist Democrat.
Kerry advisers think Virginia has become more of a northern state because of population shifts in the late 1990s and early 2000s and that Kerry, a decorated Vietnam veteran, can do well along the coast, which has a heavy military presence.
Warner agreed that the landscape is ripe for a Democratic presidential win, saying parts of rural Virginia are still feeling the sting of the economic downturn.
Warner said in an interview Thursday that the campaign's early investment in his state "demonstrates that this is going to be a national effort and that the South has the potential to be very competitive."
Kerry strategists acknowledge that winning Virginia or any other Southern state where the GOP has had a lock won't be easy, but they say it can be done.
"We are not going on the air any place that we do not think we have a chance to win. This is a gesture of strength," said Mary Beth Cahill, Kerry's campaign manager.
Still, competing in states like Virginia may force Bush to defend his turf, and any money spent in GOP-leaning states means less money either candidate will have to spend in key states like Ohio or Florida.
It's a strategy that Gore had hoped to execute in 2000 -- particularly in Virginia and North Carolina -- but he didn't have the money. That's not the case for Kerry, who has broken numerous fund-raising records this year. He can spend as much as he can raise because he rejected public financing for the primaries. Gore accepted the money.
Also next month, Kerry will expand his advertising to media outlets targeting blacks, and will run TV ads on cable's Black Entertainment Television. Black lawmakers met with Kerry's campaign a few weeks ago to stress that it was important to target ads to black communities to help mobilize the Democratic vote.
Kerry also will run ads tailored to Hispanics -- arguably the most volatile voting group -- on Spanish-language networks. Bush has run several weeks of such ads since March in Florida, Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico.
Separately, the Media Fund, a Democratic interest group that has spent more than $20 million on anti-Bush ads this year, announced a $1.5 million donation to the New Democratic Network, which represents party centrists, for its ads. The network has spent more than $1 million of TV ads in those four states touting the Democratic agenda and criticizing Bush.
By the end of June, Kerry will have spent at least $60 million on TV ads since March.
Bush's latest buys -- $7 million through mid-June to run a new ad assailing Kerry in 18 states and $2.5 million to advertise on national cable networks in June -- mean the president will have spent roughly $80 million during the same period.
Ugh. Lucky us.
Kerry's expanding his ad buys into Virginia. I've long thought that this state could potentially be competitive (or at least closer than expected), so this doesn't surprise me.
it is not quite to the tourrettes outbreak that bubba provokes in me, but i do mutter profanity whenever i see F'in on the tube.
He must be returned to Massachusetts soon.
No. He's a Democrat who lost twice running as a liberal, so then he pretended to be a centrist and won.
John Kerry is a liberal who pretends to be a moderate [flip] conservative [flop] liberal [backflip] "I'll get back to you" kinda guy. Let him spend his $$$$ here and help our economy further.
I don't see any reason to expect VA to be competitive.
"Earlier this month, Kerry started running ads in those states, as well as in Colorado and Louisiana, all but forcing Bush to broadcast commercials in the two GOP-leaning states to keep the Democrat from making inroads."
And
"in Louisiana, where Bush no longer is running ads."
What a biased hit-piece.
A waste of money. Bush won easily in this heavy military state. CBS poll showed Bush winning military and veterns vote handily. Most military people know Kerry aided the enemy during the Vietnam war with his Hanoi Jane rhetoric.
I do. But you're inside the Beltway. :-D
Want a job? I have to hire 22 people by 1 OCT.
The strategerie seems to be working.........Kerry is spending campaign cash "targeted to blacks and hispanics" Rove is making him spend cash to get votes he already has in his back pocket, although the hispanic vote is possibly splittable to a large degree based on how conservative catholics vote......................
Right. And there are no down-ballot races at all to influence, unlike NC. I wonder if this isn't a preview of his VP pick...
Very good point! Dork Warner's name has come up more than once.
Hopefully not, but I think it's in the realm of possibility. If you allocate the Nader votes to Gore (which isn't entirely the correct way to do it, but gives an idea), Bush's margin was 5.9 points in 2000. Any slippage on that number and the state becomes competitive.
Since you live there, what are your thoughts on the demographic changes... do you think that they are gradually making the state more Democrat-friendly?
LOL. I guess it's time for you to insert a few Y'alls into your vernacular now, hmm? What, with residing in the Deep South.
I agree that Kerry would be better-served to spend the money elsewhere. If Kerry is winning in Virginia, then he's winning the election period. But I see why it's an attractive target-state for Kerry. It allows him to say he's campaigning in the South. And Bush didn't win VA by all that much in 2000. He beat Gore by about 8 points, but beat Gore/Nader by only 5.9 points. And the state wasn't even contested that year. Kerry's hoping to make it even closer by doing so.
"Kerry's expanding his ad buys into Virginia. I've long thought that this state could potentially be competitive (or at least closer than expected), so this doesn't surprise me."
As a very active Bush supporter belonging to a large and growing conservative group, please know our fine state of Va is not a problem for Bush. Kerry does not have a chance here.
It's hard to say, without scouring numbers. The NoVa region has grown a ton, and everyone associates NoVa with liberals. But the growth has been exploding in the 'burbs, which tend to be much more evenly split.
And keep in mind the 8- (or 6- w/Nader) point differential was for a TX governor with a light resume against a virtual incumbent VP. Now Dubya's a GOP incumbent in a military-heavy state during a time of war and post 9/11 (please remember the Pentagon is in VA).
Oh, and we haven't elected a Dem since 1964. :-) If the Impeached Rapist couldn't win here, I don't see Kerry even coming close.
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