Hopefully not, but I think it's in the realm of possibility. If you allocate the Nader votes to Gore (which isn't entirely the correct way to do it, but gives an idea), Bush's margin was 5.9 points in 2000. Any slippage on that number and the state becomes competitive.
Since you live there, what are your thoughts on the demographic changes... do you think that they are gradually making the state more Democrat-friendly?
It's hard to say, without scouring numbers. The NoVa region has grown a ton, and everyone associates NoVa with liberals. But the growth has been exploding in the 'burbs, which tend to be much more evenly split.
And keep in mind the 8- (or 6- w/Nader) point differential was for a TX governor with a light resume against a virtual incumbent VP. Now Dubya's a GOP incumbent in a military-heavy state during a time of war and post 9/11 (please remember the Pentagon is in VA).
Oh, and we haven't elected a Dem since 1964. :-) If the Impeached Rapist couldn't win here, I don't see Kerry even coming close.