It's hard to say, without scouring numbers. The NoVa region has grown a ton, and everyone associates NoVa with liberals. But the growth has been exploding in the 'burbs, which tend to be much more evenly split.
And keep in mind the 8- (or 6- w/Nader) point differential was for a TX governor with a light resume against a virtual incumbent VP. Now Dubya's a GOP incumbent in a military-heavy state during a time of war and post 9/11 (please remember the Pentagon is in VA).
Oh, and we haven't elected a Dem since 1964. :-) If the Impeached Rapist couldn't win here, I don't see Kerry even coming close.
I agree.
I think Kerry is wasting his money in Virginia...unless he's planning on milking another couple % points out of Northern Virginia or immediately in the city of Richmond.
Kerry won't play well in most of the Tidewater, the Valley or the Southside.