Specter Wins 51-49 Republican Senatorial Primary: live thread

4/27/2004 | self

[rudy45]

My apologies if a thread already exists. I did a search on "Toomey" and found nothing.

I arrived at my polling area (suburban Philadelphia) at 6:45 am to hand out palm cards. The weather is terrific this morning, but turnout (I thought) was light (I had to leave at 9:15, but will be back).

Actually, I have a good feeling about Pat.

[Diddle E. Squat]

Why do I donate hundreds of dollars? Why do I man the phones? Why do I post yard signs? When will the party represent me?

Yes, when will Moses come down off the mountain? He is taking longer than we want him to take, and we are disappointed. Nevermind that we were freed from captivity and led out of Egypt, never mind that we are on our way to the Promised Land. No, it is a more difficult and longer journey than we had imagined, so maybe we should quit.

Since obviously Moses must be lost up there, maybe we can go out and build a golden calf to an independent, or Conservative Party, or ex-Justice Moore, or Tancredo, or the stay-at-home-for-purity-excuse-de-jour...

[FreeReign]

That Toomey could get this close to a sitting Senator is quite something.

Yes, it is a good showing by Toomey.

[free2freep]

It doesn't matter what I think. These are definitional things.

And I'm asking you for the third time, would you define a conservative as an extremist?

[Redbob]

Sundquist was SUCH a disappointment!
I worked for his election first time around - he had a connection to Shelbyville, having lived there and worked at I think the Jostens' Plant. I even gave money. Went door to door.

But just dang! Did he ever give 'Pubbies a bad name - the Dims can (rightly) call US the "tax and spend" party after his administration!!

[Petronski]

Should I stop molding my golden donkey?

[Fledermaus]

Who are "these people"? You mean the job protectionists? The Hate Wal-Mart crowd? The Liberatarians Rule group? The Fair Tax utopians?

What "people" are you referring to?

[LenS]

Actually, in 1986 the Senate was still Republican (it changed back to the Dems in January of 1987). Which meant that the GOP had at least half the power in Congress. Plus, the blue dog Democrats combined with the GOP to give a slight edge on tax matters to the GOP in the House also.

[ClintonBeGone]

or Tancredo

I've heard he can part the Rio Grande.

[sinkspur]

I did not sign up to implement Wolfowitz's delusions

But you did, if you voted for Bush.

If you want to control matters, perhaps you should run for President.

[HamiltonJay]

No, winning your primary does not imply victory in the general.... not even close. Toomey's campaign hinges on 1 big theme, and 1 big theme only... "I am not Specter, I am a "REAL" conservative".. thats it, that's his campaign...

It also depends highly on large cash from the right wing of the GOP who desire to wrest control of the party from what they feel are the too moderates that now run things.

And what those right wing groups are learning tonight is you need something more than "I'm the real conservative" to win even their own parties primaries. Much less emerge from them with a canidate that has a chance in hell of winning in the general.

When you guy in the best case can only muster just over 50% of his own parties votes in the primaries... when only the truly active party members are voting, you don't have a recipe for a strong canidate in the general... not even close.

Toomey will be chewed up and left for dead in the general, particularly in the Philadelphia area. He doesn't have what it takes to win as a conservative in PA. Santorum does, Toomey doesn't.. and if you look at them side by side, its blindingly apparent that Toomey isn't even close to the same league as the statewide conservatives that have won here.

He's not fully baked, and may never be.

As I said before, the senate is too close to give up the given win in Novemember.. the bulk of voters voting in the primaries are not young and naive ideologues.. a full 50% of them or more are over 50 years of age.

Toomey's campaign should have been about showing voters he could be a conservative who could win state wide... a much tougher sell than "I'm not Specter" no doubt, but that's the hurdle he should have been gunning for... but instead he aimed low, and will have a squeaker but won't win. Had he been able to convince republicans he was say "Santorum-esque" conservative but could win state wide... he might have pulled it off.

When its 51-49 or whatever it is in the senate, you are not going to get voters to give away the slam dunk general on a campaign that simply says "I'm not the other guy". If the republicans weren't in power Toomey might have been able to pull it off at least at the primary level with that.. but then again, there is nothing to lose in that situation sending him to the general.

[Mo1]

Huh? Hoeffel's the congressman for much of NE Philly

Yes .. Hoeffel just became the congressman for that area and most don't really know Hoeffel

They know Specter and like I said .. he has seniority in the senate and he brings the money to Pa and Philly

Even the union members will vote for Specter over Hoeffel

[JohnnyZ]

Hate to be a naysayer, but I think he'll come up just short. I think it'll be different from the typical race where the undecided breaks toward the challenger. In this race, I think the undecideds break toward Specter, the known quantity, rather than the less well-known Toomey.

Sucks when I'm right.

[prisoner6]

Anyone else catch this on PCNC? Made me go HMMMMM!

PCNC...Arlen clinches the race and a cheer goes up from the crowd in the ballroom. Andy GAstmyer is interviewing former PA AG Roy Zimmerman...mentions to Zimmerman that there was a feeling Arlen mught not pull it out.

Zimmerman says Arlen is indefatigable and has had soem tough races...says he figured Toomey wouldn't get more than 35% of the vote when the race started. But the growth club invested heavily, the conservative movement invested heavily...

At this point Gstmeyer intterupts and says "We should know that we're talking that very conservative, Wall Street backed group that Senator Specter has asked there be an investigation conducted into in terms of their funding."

Zimmerman agrees saysing "That's Big Money and that money makes a difference in a race like this...at the state level."

Toomey making speech now...I have to run.

prisoner6

[ClintonBeGone]

That's precisely how RINOs govern, as if conservatives are the enemy.

No, obnoxious, destructive people are the enemy. Have you ever played a team sport? Some people go the whole game and don't get the ball or their pictures in the newspapers. But they keep showing up every Sunday. It's not all about YOU.

[Lancey Howard]

when wave after wave of far right fringe FReepers renounce their Republican affiliations

The funny thing is, I am to the right of most of THEM. I just try not to be a baby about everything. I hate rinos more than they do, but the pouting and stomping accomplishes nothing.

If Bush is smart, he will USE Specter to help cajole the other scumbags - - Chafee, Snowe, Collins - - into voting the right way on the real important stuff. It could be like having a spy in the opposing (rino) camp.

Regards,
LH
(Just trying to keep it positive.)

[RobFromGa]

He might have folded that hand and done nothing.

He might have, but he didn't. I don't know everything but I know that George W. Bush needs to win re-election in 2004 or the World is in deep trouble. There is not one other person in the World who will lead this effort.

I am not going to cut off my nose to spite my face.

I could care less about Specter at this point, but a victorious Specter who was actively opposed by the President in the primary would have been a mean active opponent. As it is, he is just the same ol' Arlen whom you can't count on for many things.

[Diddle E. Squat]

It's a moot point now but there is not a doubt in my mind that Toomey would have cleaned Hoeffel's clock.

Delusional BS. Look, this former Central PA guy was pulling for Toomey, but it would have been an uphill battle in the general, and a close win at best.

Sure there is disappointment, but let's not get ridiculous. We are not Florida Democrats...

[pittsburgh gop guy]

"That Toomey could get this close to a sitting Senator is quite something.

Yes, it is a good showing by Toomey."

And a bad showing for Specter, but he won anyway.

Toomey is going to help Specter, so that may pay off if he wants to run for something else.



OK - POST-MORTEM - Other than Rick and W not helping Specter, which was out of Toomey's control, his campaign should have had his wife and kids out there more. They should have been in commercials, with his wife talking about the Pat Toomey that she knows. This did not happen, and it would have switched thousands of female votes in SE PA and around the state. Conservative males ALWAYS have to bring the wife and kids out so that people are not afraid of them. Toomey did not do that. He lost.

[Michael Barnes]

You have to support the incumbent

Yeah, even though they cite scottish law..Not our Constitution, Scottish Law.

Specter does not have the stomach to do what is just and right. He'll go on to vote "not proven"; in other words, he won't take a stand for right or wrong. He'll go on with not connecting any dots and magic bullet theories.

He's scum. MANY PA voters failed tonight.

[Lancey Howard]

Nah. The rats want that seat more than they want a rino as a fallback.