Toomey Within 6 Of Specter In New Poll

SurveyUSA ^ | 4/6/04

[Dales]

U.S. Senate, PA GOP Primary

4/6/2004
Specter- 46%
Toomey- 40%
Other/Undecided- 14%
Data Collected 4/3/04 - 4/5/04
Geography- State of Pennsylvania
Sample Population- 490 Certain Voters
Margin of Error- 4.5%
Client- KDKA-TV Pittsburgh WCAU-TV Philadelphia WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre

[Clean_Sweep]

Dump Spector Now!!!

[republicanwizard]

"And if Bush carries PA in 2004 (as I think he will), it will be because he will increase his percentages among blue-collar Democrats, not because he can somehow convince pro-abortion, anti-gun and anti-military suburban RINOs to vote for him."

That is chancy. He narrowly lost Southwestern PA, and only won 55% in the central region of the state. However, if a Democrat wins 80% of the vote in Philadelphia and 60% in the suburbs, then a Republican candidate has to win the following:

70% in Central PA
60% in Northwestern PA
50% in Allegheny County
58% in Southwestern PA
55% in Northeastern PA

I've plugged the numbers before, and this is just to BREAK EVEN. If Republicans are to make PA a Republican state again, then it will take winning 55% in the suburbs.

[republicanwizard]

Thanks. There was so much reasoning and logic behind that post that we could not fail to be persuaded by it.

[republicanwizard]

Oh, and in 2000, Gore won the suburbs 51% to 47%. It wasn't quite the blowout the media made it seem to be.

[republicanwizard]

Let me put it to you like this. If Toomey wins the primary, I will do all I can to elect him. My concern is that a Republican hold the seat. Right now, I view Specter as the better candidate to hold the seat.

(Hey, this is a great debate guys. I'm enjoying this, so let's not get personal...it's great to see Pennsylvania getting so much attention!)

[WOSG]

"Right now, I view Specter as the better candidate to hold the seat."

You mean "more electable" when you say "better candidate to hold the seat", right??

I cant imagine any conservative viewing Specter as the 'better candidate' wrt the issues.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"You would have a great point, even if it were not for the fact that 40% of the vote in PA is cast in Philadelphia, Bucks, Montgomery, Delaware, and Chester counties."

---

First of all, Chester County isn't exactly RINO territory. Its black areas vote Democrat, but the rest of the county is solid Republican. The combined Philly, Bucks, Delaware and Montco vote was only 28.6% in 2000. And even if you threw in Chester County (with its Pennsylvania Dutch farmers and all), the percentage of the vote cast in Philly, Bucks, Delaware, Montco and Chester in the 2000 presidential election was only 32.4%, which, according to the immutable laws of mathematics, is still well below 40%.


"The bottom line is that Specter could still win 40% in Philadelphia, just as Sam Katz did."

---

Now that is just plain ridiculous. Specter couldn't win 40% in Philly in 1992, when he wasn't running against a Congressman from the Philly area, and when Philly was nowhere near as heavily Democrat as today. And Sam Katz can get over 40% of the vote in Philly IN A MAYORAL RACE against John Street, in which the issues are far different from a Senate race. For example, Katz got supermajorities among white Philadelphians in both the 1999 and 2003 mayoral races because of his emphasis on crime, which is for the most part a LOCAL ISSUE that has very little to do with a U.S. Senate race, since it's something U.S. Senators can't do a thing about. If Katz ran for the Senate against Joe Hoeffel, do you really think he would do anywhere near as well as in his mayoral race against John Street? It is just preposterous.

Whoever made you a "wizard" should take away your broom, because you could hurt yourself.

[republicanwizard]

DRATS! You are correct. I had New York in mind when I was writing that. In New York, 40% of vote is cast in NYC and its suburbs. In Pennsylvania, 30% of the vote is cast in Philly and its suburbs. (It's why this state tends to be more Republican)

However, I disagree with you about Chester County. Republican Party officials there are not on the ball, and the percentages Republicans win there have been progressively decreasing. Remember, Reagan won 64% in the suburbs. That is no longer possible, but 55% should be do-able.

Tom Ridge won 33% of the vote in Philadelphia in 1998. Republicans cannot afford to only win 20% in that city. Please remember that Specter is a former countywide official in Philly and Philadelphia himself.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"However, if a Democrat wins 80% of the vote in Philadelphia and 60% in the suburbs . . . ."

---

Mathematical strawman. Hoeffel would not get 60% of the vote against Toomey in the Philly suburbs, especially if you include Chester County as you tend to do. In fact, I'm not even certain that Hoeffel would get over 50% against Toomey in the Philly suburbs.

[republicanwizard]

You are all H20.

[republicanwizard]

That is up to Toomey.

[republicanwizard]

Hmm...just a question, what is your source for the election data?

Oh, one interesting thing is that Ridge and the conservative candidate won 72% in the suburbs in 1998.

Could it be that the region voted for Al Gore in 2000 because it is very much a pocket-book conscious region, ditto in 2002 because of Rendell supposedly making Philly worth it again?

[macrahanish #1]

Toomey has a major organization and name recognition problem here(Potter County). This is a county that went 70% for Bush in 2000. Many voters think that Toomey is a 'rat.
I've tried to help the Toomey campaign. The place where I was to pick up a road sign was a two and a half hour round trip away from me. Worse, the contact number I was given by the Toomey campaign proved to be bogus. I tried to contact them to inform them of the problem; I haven't heard anything.
Although we are small in numbers, it is a bad miscalculation to totally ignore an area where a majority of the voters would be likely to vote for Toomey if they knew something about him.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Oh, and in 2000, Gore won the suburbs 51% to 47%. It wasn't quite the blowout the media made it seem to be."

---

If so, why do you assume that Hoeffel would get 60% in the suburbs?

[republicanwizard]

I'm just thinking in terms of Democrats selling it to the suburban voters as an opportunity to elect a Senator from THEIR region.

[republicanwizard]

Gee, it sounds like the Fisher campaign!

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Hmm...just a question, what is your source for the election data?"

---

For presidential elections, it is http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/index.html
It is by far the best source of presidential election on the Internet.

For the PA Senate elections, I already gave you the links.

[republicanwizard]

I agree wholeheartedly...

[macrahanish #1]

It's worse than that, Landru.I decided to go get the sign, but the contact number I was given proved to be bogus.I wonder how many others have had the same problem. I WAS willing to canvas door-to-door, but the Toomey folks never responded. They also haven't responded to my informing them about the bogus number they gave me. I can't stress enough that Toomey has VERY poor name recognition in this part of the state. Getting the word out is exceptionally important. They're throwing away votes here. I'm still voting for Pat, but I'm beginning to wonder if there is some truth in the Specter ad that says Toomey ignores constituents.

[macrahanish #1]

Rendell made every effort he could to get everywhere in the state. The local paper(Potter County Leader-Enterprise)put Rendell's visit as a front-page headline. All Fisher would have had to do was visit Couderport and truthfully proclaim Rendell to be a gun grabber, but he never did.