[republicanwizard]

"And if Bush carries PA in 2004 (as I think he will), it will be because he will increase his percentages among blue-collar Democrats, not because he can somehow convince pro-abortion, anti-gun and anti-military suburban RINOs to vote for him."

That is chancy. He narrowly lost Southwestern PA, and only won 55% in the central region of the state. However, if a Democrat wins 80% of the vote in Philadelphia and 60% in the suburbs, then a Republican candidate has to win the following:

70% in Central PA
60% in Northwestern PA
50% in Allegheny County
58% in Southwestern PA
55% in Northeastern PA

I've plugged the numbers before, and this is just to BREAK EVEN. If Republicans are to make PA a Republican state again, then it will take winning 55% in the suburbs.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"However, if a Democrat wins 80% of the vote in Philadelphia and 60% in the suburbs . . . ."

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Mathematical strawman. Hoeffel would not get 60% of the vote against Toomey in the Philly suburbs, especially if you include Chester County as you tend to do. In fact, I'm not even certain that Hoeffel would get over 50% against Toomey in the Philly suburbs.